Substantial gains and little downside from farming of Totoaba macdonaldi
Abstract Illegal wildlife trade threatens species globally. Conservation farming introduces farmed substitutes to reduce poaching. Predicting if farming will succeed necessitates understanding how supply and demand interact and how markets respond. We focus on illegal trade for totoaba (Totoaba macd...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2025-07-01
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| Series: | npj Ocean Sustainability |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s44183-025-00143-4 |
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| author | Julia M. Lawson Simon Jean Andrew Steinkruger Miguel Castellanos-Rico Garrett M. Goto Miguel Á. Cisneros-Mata Erendira Aceves-Bueno Matthew M. Warham Adam M. Sachs Steven D. Gaines |
| author_facet | Julia M. Lawson Simon Jean Andrew Steinkruger Miguel Castellanos-Rico Garrett M. Goto Miguel Á. Cisneros-Mata Erendira Aceves-Bueno Matthew M. Warham Adam M. Sachs Steven D. Gaines |
| author_sort | Julia M. Lawson |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Illegal wildlife trade threatens species globally. Conservation farming introduces farmed substitutes to reduce poaching. Predicting if farming will succeed necessitates understanding how supply and demand interact and how markets respond. We focus on illegal trade for totoaba (Totoaba macdonaldi), dominated by a Mexican cartel, which has continued unabated despite long-standing prohibitions. We investigate if farmed totoaba can successfully compete with poaching and support a healthy wild totoaba population. We simulate an illegal supply chain describing the current trade: poachers sell to traders who sell to end-markets. If traders reduce the quantity supplied in response to farming, poaching could decrease by 28%, but if traders select a price that undercuts farming, poaching may increase by 6%. Under both responses, a stable wild population is maintained. Our results are sensitive to costs, demand, product substitutability, market structure, and combinations thereof, and we discuss how to quantitatively evaluate and mitigate for these issues. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-8d3909a6837b457f99a13bb5efaae8fa |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2731-426X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-07-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | npj Ocean Sustainability |
| spelling | doaj-art-8d3909a6837b457f99a13bb5efaae8fa2025-08-20T03:42:37ZengNature Portfolionpj Ocean Sustainability2731-426X2025-07-01411910.1038/s44183-025-00143-4Substantial gains and little downside from farming of Totoaba macdonaldiJulia M. Lawson0Simon Jean1Andrew Steinkruger2Miguel Castellanos-Rico3Garrett M. Goto4Miguel Á. Cisneros-Mata5Erendira Aceves-Bueno6Matthew M. Warham7Adam M. Sachs8Steven D. Gaines9Bren School of Environmental Science & Management, University of CaliforniaCentre International de Recherche en Environnement et Dévelopement (UMR 8568 CIRED)Bren School of Environmental Science & Management, University of CaliforniaBren School of Environmental Science & Management, University of CaliforniaBren School of Environmental Science & Management, University of CaliforniaInstituto Mexicano de Investigación en Pesca y Acuacultura SustentableSchool of Marine & Environmental Affairs, University of WashingtonBren School of Environmental Science & Management, University of CaliforniaBren School of Environmental Science & Management, University of CaliforniaBren School of Environmental Science & Management, University of CaliforniaAbstract Illegal wildlife trade threatens species globally. Conservation farming introduces farmed substitutes to reduce poaching. Predicting if farming will succeed necessitates understanding how supply and demand interact and how markets respond. We focus on illegal trade for totoaba (Totoaba macdonaldi), dominated by a Mexican cartel, which has continued unabated despite long-standing prohibitions. We investigate if farmed totoaba can successfully compete with poaching and support a healthy wild totoaba population. We simulate an illegal supply chain describing the current trade: poachers sell to traders who sell to end-markets. If traders reduce the quantity supplied in response to farming, poaching could decrease by 28%, but if traders select a price that undercuts farming, poaching may increase by 6%. Under both responses, a stable wild population is maintained. Our results are sensitive to costs, demand, product substitutability, market structure, and combinations thereof, and we discuss how to quantitatively evaluate and mitigate for these issues.https://doi.org/10.1038/s44183-025-00143-4 |
| spellingShingle | Julia M. Lawson Simon Jean Andrew Steinkruger Miguel Castellanos-Rico Garrett M. Goto Miguel Á. Cisneros-Mata Erendira Aceves-Bueno Matthew M. Warham Adam M. Sachs Steven D. Gaines Substantial gains and little downside from farming of Totoaba macdonaldi npj Ocean Sustainability |
| title | Substantial gains and little downside from farming of Totoaba macdonaldi |
| title_full | Substantial gains and little downside from farming of Totoaba macdonaldi |
| title_fullStr | Substantial gains and little downside from farming of Totoaba macdonaldi |
| title_full_unstemmed | Substantial gains and little downside from farming of Totoaba macdonaldi |
| title_short | Substantial gains and little downside from farming of Totoaba macdonaldi |
| title_sort | substantial gains and little downside from farming of totoaba macdonaldi |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s44183-025-00143-4 |
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