Near-future rocket launches could slow ozone recovery
Abstract Rocket emissions thin the stratospheric ozone layer. To understand if significant ozone losses could occur as the launch industry grows, we examine two scenarios. Our ‘ambitious’ scenario (2040 launches/year) yields a −0.29% depletion in annual-mean, near-global total column ozone in 2030....
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2025-06-01
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| Series: | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01098-6 |
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| _version_ | 1849694341353701376 |
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| author | Laura E. Revell Michele T. Bannister Tyler F. M. Brown Timofei Sukhodolov Sandro Vattioni John Dykema David J. Frame John Cater Gabriel Chiodo Eugene Rozanov |
| author_facet | Laura E. Revell Michele T. Bannister Tyler F. M. Brown Timofei Sukhodolov Sandro Vattioni John Dykema David J. Frame John Cater Gabriel Chiodo Eugene Rozanov |
| author_sort | Laura E. Revell |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Rocket emissions thin the stratospheric ozone layer. To understand if significant ozone losses could occur as the launch industry grows, we examine two scenarios. Our ‘ambitious’ scenario (2040 launches/year) yields a −0.29% depletion in annual-mean, near-global total column ozone in 2030. Antarctic springtime ozone decreases by 3.9%. Our ‘conservative’ scenario (884 launches/year) yields −0.17% annual, near-global depletion; current licensing rates suggest this scenario may be exceeded before 2030. Ozone losses are driven by the chlorine produced from solid rocket motor propellant, and black carbon which is emitted from most propellants. The ozone layer is slowly healing from the effects of CFCs, yet global-mean ozone abundances are still 2% lower than measured prior to the onset of CFC-induced ozone depletion. Our results demonstrate that ongoing and frequent rocket launches could delay ozone recovery. Action is needed now to ensure that future growth of the launch industry and ozone protection are mutually sustainable. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-8cdceadc9f86436baf85596d9e311cbe |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2397-3722 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-06-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| spelling | doaj-art-8cdceadc9f86436baf85596d9e311cbe2025-08-20T03:20:06ZengNature Portfolionpj Climate and Atmospheric Science2397-37222025-06-018111210.1038/s41612-025-01098-6Near-future rocket launches could slow ozone recoveryLaura E. Revell0Michele T. Bannister1Tyler F. M. Brown2Timofei Sukhodolov3Sandro Vattioni4John Dykema5David J. Frame6John Cater7Gabriel Chiodo8Eugene Rozanov9School of Physical and Chemical Sciences–Te Kura Matū, University of CanterburySchool of Physical and Chemical Sciences–Te Kura Matū, University of CanterburySchool of Physical and Chemical Sciences–Te Kura Matū, University of CanterburyPhysikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos and World Radiation CenterInstitute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH ZurichJohn A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard UniversitySchool of Physical and Chemical Sciences–Te Kura Matū, University of CanterburyDepartment of Mechanical Engineering, University of CanterburyInstituto de Geociencias(IGEO), CSIC-UCMPhysikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos and World Radiation CenterAbstract Rocket emissions thin the stratospheric ozone layer. To understand if significant ozone losses could occur as the launch industry grows, we examine two scenarios. Our ‘ambitious’ scenario (2040 launches/year) yields a −0.29% depletion in annual-mean, near-global total column ozone in 2030. Antarctic springtime ozone decreases by 3.9%. Our ‘conservative’ scenario (884 launches/year) yields −0.17% annual, near-global depletion; current licensing rates suggest this scenario may be exceeded before 2030. Ozone losses are driven by the chlorine produced from solid rocket motor propellant, and black carbon which is emitted from most propellants. The ozone layer is slowly healing from the effects of CFCs, yet global-mean ozone abundances are still 2% lower than measured prior to the onset of CFC-induced ozone depletion. Our results demonstrate that ongoing and frequent rocket launches could delay ozone recovery. Action is needed now to ensure that future growth of the launch industry and ozone protection are mutually sustainable.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01098-6 |
| spellingShingle | Laura E. Revell Michele T. Bannister Tyler F. M. Brown Timofei Sukhodolov Sandro Vattioni John Dykema David J. Frame John Cater Gabriel Chiodo Eugene Rozanov Near-future rocket launches could slow ozone recovery npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| title | Near-future rocket launches could slow ozone recovery |
| title_full | Near-future rocket launches could slow ozone recovery |
| title_fullStr | Near-future rocket launches could slow ozone recovery |
| title_full_unstemmed | Near-future rocket launches could slow ozone recovery |
| title_short | Near-future rocket launches could slow ozone recovery |
| title_sort | near future rocket launches could slow ozone recovery |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01098-6 |
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