Increased Predictability of Extreme El Niño From Decadal Interbasin Interaction
Abstract Predicting extreme El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events remains a formidable task. Utilizing eigen microstates (EMs) of complex systems, we elucidate the interplay of two key sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly modes, the newly identified Atlantic‐Western Pacific Multidecadal mode (...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2024-12-01
|
| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL110943 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1850223269424136192 |
|---|---|
| author | Xuan Ma Rizhou Liang Xiaosong Chen Fei Xie Jinqing Zuo Cheng Sun Ruiqiang Ding |
| author_facet | Xuan Ma Rizhou Liang Xiaosong Chen Fei Xie Jinqing Zuo Cheng Sun Ruiqiang Ding |
| author_sort | Xuan Ma |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Predicting extreme El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events remains a formidable task. Utilizing eigen microstates (EMs) of complex systems, we elucidate the interplay of two key sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly modes, the newly identified Atlantic‐Western Pacific Multidecadal mode (AM‐WPM) and discovered Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM). Our findings demonstrate that a cold AM‐WPM phase coupled with a positive PMM phase markedly elevates the probability of extreme El Niño events; AM‐WPM's decadal variability serves as a key modulator of extreme El Niño events' frequency. Our empirical model, capitalizing on these modes, achieves robust forecasts with a 6–8 months lead time and boasts a 0.73 correlation with the observed ENSO index in hindcasts. Notably, the model precisely forecasts the intensity of four extreme El Niño episodes: 1982/1983, 1987/1988, 1997/1998, and 2015/2016. Our findings offer promising avenues for refining ENSO predictive frameworks and deepen our understanding of the key climatic drivers. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-8cac77ffd1ce4504b792f4ef99ed5846 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-8cac77ffd1ce4504b792f4ef99ed58462025-08-20T02:06:01ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072024-12-015123n/an/a10.1029/2024GL110943Increased Predictability of Extreme El Niño From Decadal Interbasin InteractionXuan Ma0Rizhou Liang1Xiaosong Chen2Fei Xie3Jinqing Zuo4Cheng Sun5Ruiqiang Ding6School of Systems Science & Institute of Nonequilibrium Systems Beijing Normal University Beijing ChinaSchool of Systems Science & Institute of Nonequilibrium Systems Beijing Normal University Beijing ChinaSchool of Systems Science & Institute of Nonequilibrium Systems Beijing Normal University Beijing ChinaSchool of Systems Science & Institute of Nonequilibrium Systems Beijing Normal University Beijing ChinaCMA Key Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies National Climate Centre China Meteorological Administration Beijing ChinaState Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science Faculty of Geographical Science Beijing Normal University Beijing ChinaState Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Beijing Normal University Beijing ChinaAbstract Predicting extreme El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events remains a formidable task. Utilizing eigen microstates (EMs) of complex systems, we elucidate the interplay of two key sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly modes, the newly identified Atlantic‐Western Pacific Multidecadal mode (AM‐WPM) and discovered Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM). Our findings demonstrate that a cold AM‐WPM phase coupled with a positive PMM phase markedly elevates the probability of extreme El Niño events; AM‐WPM's decadal variability serves as a key modulator of extreme El Niño events' frequency. Our empirical model, capitalizing on these modes, achieves robust forecasts with a 6–8 months lead time and boasts a 0.73 correlation with the observed ENSO index in hindcasts. Notably, the model precisely forecasts the intensity of four extreme El Niño episodes: 1982/1983, 1987/1988, 1997/1998, and 2015/2016. Our findings offer promising avenues for refining ENSO predictive frameworks and deepen our understanding of the key climatic drivers.https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL110943 |
| spellingShingle | Xuan Ma Rizhou Liang Xiaosong Chen Fei Xie Jinqing Zuo Cheng Sun Ruiqiang Ding Increased Predictability of Extreme El Niño From Decadal Interbasin Interaction Geophysical Research Letters |
| title | Increased Predictability of Extreme El Niño From Decadal Interbasin Interaction |
| title_full | Increased Predictability of Extreme El Niño From Decadal Interbasin Interaction |
| title_fullStr | Increased Predictability of Extreme El Niño From Decadal Interbasin Interaction |
| title_full_unstemmed | Increased Predictability of Extreme El Niño From Decadal Interbasin Interaction |
| title_short | Increased Predictability of Extreme El Niño From Decadal Interbasin Interaction |
| title_sort | increased predictability of extreme el nino from decadal interbasin interaction |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL110943 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT xuanma increasedpredictabilityofextremeelninofromdecadalinterbasininteraction AT rizhouliang increasedpredictabilityofextremeelninofromdecadalinterbasininteraction AT xiaosongchen increasedpredictabilityofextremeelninofromdecadalinterbasininteraction AT feixie increasedpredictabilityofextremeelninofromdecadalinterbasininteraction AT jinqingzuo increasedpredictabilityofextremeelninofromdecadalinterbasininteraction AT chengsun increasedpredictabilityofextremeelninofromdecadalinterbasininteraction AT ruiqiangding increasedpredictabilityofextremeelninofromdecadalinterbasininteraction |