Assessing the potential for carbon storage enhancement in forests of Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, China
Abstract Forest carbon sink potential assessment in arid regions remains a critical challenge for climate change mitigation. This study integrates multi-source remote sensing and forest inventory data to model Xinjiang’s forest age and carbon density (2019 baseline: 186.76 Mg/hm2 biomass, 93.38 Mg/h...
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Nature Portfolio
2025-08-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-14714-5 |
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| author | Zhizhong Chen Mei Zan Jingjing Kong |
| author_facet | Zhizhong Chen Mei Zan Jingjing Kong |
| author_sort | Zhizhong Chen |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Forest carbon sink potential assessment in arid regions remains a critical challenge for climate change mitigation. This study integrates multi-source remote sensing and forest inventory data to model Xinjiang’s forest age and carbon density (2019 baseline: 186.76 Mg/hm2 biomass, 93.38 Mg/hm2 carbon density, 46-year average age), revealing a south-to-north “low-high-low” spatial pattern. Using predictive models excluding anthropogenic and natural disturbances, we project forest carbon stock to reach 203.71 ± 2.31 Tg C by 2030 and 283.08 ± 4.23 Tg C by 2060, with declining carbon sink rates (3.67 ± 0.57 Tg C/a in 2019–2030 vs. 2.65 ± 0.56 Tg C/a in 2031–2060). Notably, Xinjiang’s forests could offset 14.6% and 9.5% of regional CO2 emissions during these periods. Economic cost analysis via panel fixed benefit modeling identifies afforestation suitability in Northeast Xinjiang, while conservation measures are prioritized elsewhere, particularly in high-elevation ridge zones. This research provides a methodological framework for arid region carbon sink enhancement and informs region-specific forest management strategies under climate change. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-8c730d93ecbc4ed08193b4ec79f5f690 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-08-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj-art-8c730d93ecbc4ed08193b4ec79f5f6902025-08-20T04:02:55ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222025-08-0115112010.1038/s41598-025-14714-5Assessing the potential for carbon storage enhancement in forests of Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, ChinaZhizhong Chen0Mei Zan1Jingjing Kong2School of Geographic Science and Tourism, Xinjiang Normal UniversitySchool of Geographic Science and Tourism, Xinjiang Normal UniversitySchool of Geographic Science and Tourism, Xinjiang Normal UniversityAbstract Forest carbon sink potential assessment in arid regions remains a critical challenge for climate change mitigation. This study integrates multi-source remote sensing and forest inventory data to model Xinjiang’s forest age and carbon density (2019 baseline: 186.76 Mg/hm2 biomass, 93.38 Mg/hm2 carbon density, 46-year average age), revealing a south-to-north “low-high-low” spatial pattern. Using predictive models excluding anthropogenic and natural disturbances, we project forest carbon stock to reach 203.71 ± 2.31 Tg C by 2030 and 283.08 ± 4.23 Tg C by 2060, with declining carbon sink rates (3.67 ± 0.57 Tg C/a in 2019–2030 vs. 2.65 ± 0.56 Tg C/a in 2031–2060). Notably, Xinjiang’s forests could offset 14.6% and 9.5% of regional CO2 emissions during these periods. Economic cost analysis via panel fixed benefit modeling identifies afforestation suitability in Northeast Xinjiang, while conservation measures are prioritized elsewhere, particularly in high-elevation ridge zones. This research provides a methodological framework for arid region carbon sink enhancement and informs region-specific forest management strategies under climate change.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-14714-5Forest tree height in xinjiangPredictive modellingCarbon sink potentialCarbon stockImpact factorsEconomic cost |
| spellingShingle | Zhizhong Chen Mei Zan Jingjing Kong Assessing the potential for carbon storage enhancement in forests of Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, China Scientific Reports Forest tree height in xinjiang Predictive modelling Carbon sink potential Carbon stock Impact factors Economic cost |
| title | Assessing the potential for carbon storage enhancement in forests of Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, China |
| title_full | Assessing the potential for carbon storage enhancement in forests of Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, China |
| title_fullStr | Assessing the potential for carbon storage enhancement in forests of Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Assessing the potential for carbon storage enhancement in forests of Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, China |
| title_short | Assessing the potential for carbon storage enhancement in forests of Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, China |
| title_sort | assessing the potential for carbon storage enhancement in forests of xinjiang uygur autonomous region china |
| topic | Forest tree height in xinjiang Predictive modelling Carbon sink potential Carbon stock Impact factors Economic cost |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-14714-5 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT zhizhongchen assessingthepotentialforcarbonstorageenhancementinforestsofxinjianguygurautonomousregionchina AT meizan assessingthepotentialforcarbonstorageenhancementinforestsofxinjianguygurautonomousregionchina AT jingjingkong assessingthepotentialforcarbonstorageenhancementinforestsofxinjianguygurautonomousregionchina |