Seasonal stabilization effects slowed the greening of the Northern Hemisphere over the last two decades
Abstract Rising atmospheric CO₂ and warming spring temperatures increase vegetation growth and the terrestrial carbon sink. However, drought, heat stress, phenology, and resource limitations may stabilize or limit theses projected increases. We investigate the balance between these amplifying and st...
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| Format: | Article |
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Nature Portfolio
2025-07-01
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| Series: | Nature Communications |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-61308-w |
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| author | Wen Zhang William K. Smith Trevor F. Keenan Matthew P. Dannenberg Yang Li Songhan Wang John S. Kimball David J. P. Moore |
| author_facet | Wen Zhang William K. Smith Trevor F. Keenan Matthew P. Dannenberg Yang Li Songhan Wang John S. Kimball David J. P. Moore |
| author_sort | Wen Zhang |
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| description | Abstract Rising atmospheric CO₂ and warming spring temperatures increase vegetation growth and the terrestrial carbon sink. However, drought, heat stress, phenology, and resource limitations may stabilize or limit theses projected increases. We investigate the balance between these amplifying and stabilizing ecological factors by asking whether enhanced early-season growth leads to continued late-season growth. Using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) leaf area index (LAI) dataset, we identify three seasonal growth patterns based on early- and peak-season positive LAI anomalies: (1) amplification, where late-season LAI anomalies exceed earlier ones; (2) weak stabilization, where late-season anomalies remain similar or slightly lower; and (3) strong stabilization, where late-season anomalies become negative. Weak and strong stabilization events dominate across 67% and 26% of Northern Hemisphere ecosystems above 30°N, respectively. The absence of any trend in amplifying or stabilizing events suggests stabilizing factors seasonally offset CO₂ and temperature-induced spring greening. Terrestrial biosphere models underestimate strong stabilization and overestimate amplification events. This inconsistency arises from the models’ underestimation late-season LAI sensitivity to precipitation in water-limited regions; overlook negative legacy effects of early enhanced LAI on late-season soil moisture via evapotranspiration losses in energy-limited regions. Our findings suggest water/heat stress and resource limitations limit greening and the land carbon sink. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-8bf271b7c41e4186b3382e35c61c3739 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2041-1723 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-07-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
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| series | Nature Communications |
| spelling | doaj-art-8bf271b7c41e4186b3382e35c61c37392025-08-20T04:03:02ZengNature PortfolioNature Communications2041-17232025-07-0116111110.1038/s41467-025-61308-wSeasonal stabilization effects slowed the greening of the Northern Hemisphere over the last two decadesWen Zhang0William K. Smith1Trevor F. Keenan2Matthew P. Dannenberg3Yang Li4Songhan Wang5John S. Kimball6David J. P. Moore7School of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of ArizonaSchool of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of ArizonaDepartment of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, UC BerkeleySchool of Earth, Environment, and Sustainability, University of IowaSchool of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of ArizonaJiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production/Key Laboratory of Crop Physiology and Ecology in Southern China, College of Agriculture, Nanjing Agricultural UniversityNTSG, University of MontanaSchool of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of ArizonaAbstract Rising atmospheric CO₂ and warming spring temperatures increase vegetation growth and the terrestrial carbon sink. However, drought, heat stress, phenology, and resource limitations may stabilize or limit theses projected increases. We investigate the balance between these amplifying and stabilizing ecological factors by asking whether enhanced early-season growth leads to continued late-season growth. Using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) leaf area index (LAI) dataset, we identify three seasonal growth patterns based on early- and peak-season positive LAI anomalies: (1) amplification, where late-season LAI anomalies exceed earlier ones; (2) weak stabilization, where late-season anomalies remain similar or slightly lower; and (3) strong stabilization, where late-season anomalies become negative. Weak and strong stabilization events dominate across 67% and 26% of Northern Hemisphere ecosystems above 30°N, respectively. The absence of any trend in amplifying or stabilizing events suggests stabilizing factors seasonally offset CO₂ and temperature-induced spring greening. Terrestrial biosphere models underestimate strong stabilization and overestimate amplification events. This inconsistency arises from the models’ underestimation late-season LAI sensitivity to precipitation in water-limited regions; overlook negative legacy effects of early enhanced LAI on late-season soil moisture via evapotranspiration losses in energy-limited regions. Our findings suggest water/heat stress and resource limitations limit greening and the land carbon sink.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-61308-w |
| spellingShingle | Wen Zhang William K. Smith Trevor F. Keenan Matthew P. Dannenberg Yang Li Songhan Wang John S. Kimball David J. P. Moore Seasonal stabilization effects slowed the greening of the Northern Hemisphere over the last two decades Nature Communications |
| title | Seasonal stabilization effects slowed the greening of the Northern Hemisphere over the last two decades |
| title_full | Seasonal stabilization effects slowed the greening of the Northern Hemisphere over the last two decades |
| title_fullStr | Seasonal stabilization effects slowed the greening of the Northern Hemisphere over the last two decades |
| title_full_unstemmed | Seasonal stabilization effects slowed the greening of the Northern Hemisphere over the last two decades |
| title_short | Seasonal stabilization effects slowed the greening of the Northern Hemisphere over the last two decades |
| title_sort | seasonal stabilization effects slowed the greening of the northern hemisphere over the last two decades |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-61308-w |
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