Wheat Production Across East Africa: Trend, Instability, and Decomposition Analysis Using Time Series Approach
ABSTRACT Measuring agricultural growth and variability is key to tracking output changes. East African wheat production is below its potential, with limited data and analysis over time. As a result, this study examines the growth patterns, variability, and instability of wheat production in East Afr...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2025-06-01
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| Series: | Journal of Sustainable Agriculture and Environment |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/sae2.70073 |
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| author | Habtamu Mossie Andualem Mesfin Bekele Gebbisa Zsuzsanna Bacsi |
| author_facet | Habtamu Mossie Andualem Mesfin Bekele Gebbisa Zsuzsanna Bacsi |
| author_sort | Habtamu Mossie Andualem |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | ABSTRACT Measuring agricultural growth and variability is key to tracking output changes. East African wheat production is below its potential, with limited data and analysis over time. As a result, this study examines the growth patterns, variability, and instability of wheat production in East Africa, specifically in Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, and Tanzania, between 1993 and 2023. To analyse and estimate wheat production trends, instability with regional disparity, and decomposition across East Africa's top wheat‐producing countries, a 30‐year data series with different secondary data, mostly the FAOSTAT database, was divided into three sub‐periods: Period I (1993/94‐2002/03), Period II (2003/04‐2012/13) and Period III (2013/14‐2022/23), even though compound growth rates, a semi‐logarithmic trend model, a differential equation approach for decomposition analysis, and the Cuddy‐Della Valle Index were utilised. Wheat production and productivity in Eastern Africa exhibited a general upward trend, primarily attributed to land expansion rather than breakthroughs in yield. Ethiopia became the leading producer, whereas Uganda has shown consistent and significant growth. Conversely, Kenya and Tanzania experienced decreasing trends in productivity within cultivated areas. Instability analysis indicates that Uganda exhibited the highest stability in production at 7.32%, whereas Rwanda and Tanzania taught greater volatility, with rates of 46.74% and 32.15%, respectively. The decomposition analysis reveals that the increase in farming areas contributed to 73.1% of the recent production growth. East African countries must prioritise productivity‐enhancing wheat production by implementing modern farming technologies, employing improved varieties, increasing irrigation, and encouraging climate‐resilient practices to ensure sustainability and improve regional food security, regional trade connectivity and for further encroachment of East Africa community. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-8bd71686f5534bd681ac8c1277ee8389 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2767-035X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-06-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Sustainable Agriculture and Environment |
| spelling | doaj-art-8bd71686f5534bd681ac8c1277ee83892025-08-20T03:29:07ZengWileyJournal of Sustainable Agriculture and Environment2767-035X2025-06-0142n/an/a10.1002/sae2.70073Wheat Production Across East Africa: Trend, Instability, and Decomposition Analysis Using Time Series ApproachHabtamu Mossie Andualem0Mesfin Bekele Gebbisa1Zsuzsanna Bacsi2Doctoral School of Economics and Regional Sciences Hungarian University of Agriculture and Life Science Gödöllő HungaryDoctoral School of Economics and Regional Sciences Hungarian University of Agriculture and Life Science Gödöllő HungaryInstitute of Agricultural and Food Economics Hungarian University of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Georgikon Campus Keszthely HungaryABSTRACT Measuring agricultural growth and variability is key to tracking output changes. East African wheat production is below its potential, with limited data and analysis over time. As a result, this study examines the growth patterns, variability, and instability of wheat production in East Africa, specifically in Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, and Tanzania, between 1993 and 2023. To analyse and estimate wheat production trends, instability with regional disparity, and decomposition across East Africa's top wheat‐producing countries, a 30‐year data series with different secondary data, mostly the FAOSTAT database, was divided into three sub‐periods: Period I (1993/94‐2002/03), Period II (2003/04‐2012/13) and Period III (2013/14‐2022/23), even though compound growth rates, a semi‐logarithmic trend model, a differential equation approach for decomposition analysis, and the Cuddy‐Della Valle Index were utilised. Wheat production and productivity in Eastern Africa exhibited a general upward trend, primarily attributed to land expansion rather than breakthroughs in yield. Ethiopia became the leading producer, whereas Uganda has shown consistent and significant growth. Conversely, Kenya and Tanzania experienced decreasing trends in productivity within cultivated areas. Instability analysis indicates that Uganda exhibited the highest stability in production at 7.32%, whereas Rwanda and Tanzania taught greater volatility, with rates of 46.74% and 32.15%, respectively. The decomposition analysis reveals that the increase in farming areas contributed to 73.1% of the recent production growth. East African countries must prioritise productivity‐enhancing wheat production by implementing modern farming technologies, employing improved varieties, increasing irrigation, and encouraging climate‐resilient practices to ensure sustainability and improve regional food security, regional trade connectivity and for further encroachment of East Africa community.https://doi.org/10.1002/sae2.70073compound growth ratedecomposition analysisEthiopiainstabilityKenyaRwanda |
| spellingShingle | Habtamu Mossie Andualem Mesfin Bekele Gebbisa Zsuzsanna Bacsi Wheat Production Across East Africa: Trend, Instability, and Decomposition Analysis Using Time Series Approach Journal of Sustainable Agriculture and Environment compound growth rate decomposition analysis Ethiopia instability Kenya Rwanda |
| title | Wheat Production Across East Africa: Trend, Instability, and Decomposition Analysis Using Time Series Approach |
| title_full | Wheat Production Across East Africa: Trend, Instability, and Decomposition Analysis Using Time Series Approach |
| title_fullStr | Wheat Production Across East Africa: Trend, Instability, and Decomposition Analysis Using Time Series Approach |
| title_full_unstemmed | Wheat Production Across East Africa: Trend, Instability, and Decomposition Analysis Using Time Series Approach |
| title_short | Wheat Production Across East Africa: Trend, Instability, and Decomposition Analysis Using Time Series Approach |
| title_sort | wheat production across east africa trend instability and decomposition analysis using time series approach |
| topic | compound growth rate decomposition analysis Ethiopia instability Kenya Rwanda |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1002/sae2.70073 |
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