Multidecadal estimation of hydrological contribution and glacier mass balance in the semi-arid Andes based on physically based modeling and geodetic mass balance
Glaciers are of paramount importance in diverse environments, and due to the accelerated retreat experienced in recent decades, efforts have intensified to achieve a comprehensive understanding of key variables such as mass balance and glacial melting. However, the scarcity of data in regions that a...
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2025-04-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Earth Science |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2025.1517081/full |
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| author | Alonso Mejías Alonso Mejías James McPhee James McPhee Hazem Mahmoud David Farías-Barahona Christophe Kinnard Shelley MacDonell Shelley MacDonell Santiago Montserrat Marcelo Somos-Valenzuela Alfonso Fernandez |
| author_facet | Alonso Mejías Alonso Mejías James McPhee James McPhee Hazem Mahmoud David Farías-Barahona Christophe Kinnard Shelley MacDonell Shelley MacDonell Santiago Montserrat Marcelo Somos-Valenzuela Alfonso Fernandez |
| author_sort | Alonso Mejías |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Glaciers are of paramount importance in diverse environments, and due to the accelerated retreat experienced in recent decades, efforts have intensified to achieve a comprehensive understanding of key variables such as mass balance and glacial melting. However, the scarcity of data in regions that are difficult to access, such as the Andes Cordillera, hinders reliable glaciological studies of the historical period. This study examined the mass balance and melting dynamics of the Universidad Glacier, the largest in the semi-arid Andes, from 1955 to 2020, using the physically based Cold Regions Hydrological Model (CRHM). The model was calibrated with geodetic mass balance estimates available between 1955 and 2020 and evaluated against on-site observations available between 2012 and 2014. Change point analysis revealed three contrasting periods of mass balance evolution: significant mass loss for the periods 1955–1971 and 2006–2020 and near-equilibrium mass balance from 1971 to 2006. These loss and gain periods align with the negative phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the positive ENSO (El Niño) events, respectively. Simulated runoff from glacier melt showed a positive trend of 8% per decade since 1971. Calibrated and uncalibrated versions of the model showed similar temporal variability, but cumulative mass balance differed significantly. The model calibrated from 1955 to 2020 had a minimal overestimation of 0.1% in mass loss and slightly improved the representation of the annual albedo. Relative to this best-performing model, the model calibrated with geodetic mass balance estimates from 2000 to 2020 overestimated mass loss by 25%, whereas the uncalibrated model overestimated mass balance by 62%. Physically based modeling with parameters adjusted based on field observations is adequate to reproduce the most salient features of MB interannual variability. However, long-term projections may diverge significantly, and albedo parameterizations, including its spatial and temporal evolution throughout a glacier surface, are an avenue for future research. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-8b9fa6f5bf524bb8a2fb0ba0c2f8f658 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2296-6463 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-04-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
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| series | Frontiers in Earth Science |
| spelling | doaj-art-8b9fa6f5bf524bb8a2fb0ba0c2f8f6582025-08-20T03:09:52ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Earth Science2296-64632025-04-011310.3389/feart.2025.15170811517081Multidecadal estimation of hydrological contribution and glacier mass balance in the semi-arid Andes based on physically based modeling and geodetic mass balanceAlonso Mejías0Alonso Mejías1James McPhee2James McPhee3Hazem Mahmoud4David Farías-Barahona5Christophe Kinnard6Shelley MacDonell7Shelley MacDonell8Santiago Montserrat9Marcelo Somos-Valenzuela10Alfonso Fernandez11Department of Civil Engineering, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, ChileAdvanced Mining Technology Center (AMTC), Universidad de Chile, Santiago, ChileDepartment of Civil Engineering, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, ChileAdvanced Mining Technology Center (AMTC), Universidad de Chile, Santiago, ChileDepartment of Environmental and Civil Engineering, University of Texas, San Antonio, TX, United StatesDepartment of Geography, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, ChileDepartment of Environmental Sciences, Université du Québec à Trois-Rivières (UQTR), Trois-Rivières, QC, CanadaCentro de Estudios Avanzados en Zonas Áridas (CEAZA), La Serena, ChileWaterways Centre, University of Canterbury and Lincoln University, Christchurch, New ZealandAdvanced Mining Technology Center (AMTC), Universidad de Chile, Santiago, ChileDepartment of Forest Sciences, Faculty of Agriculture and Environmental Sciences, Universidad de La Frontera, Temuco, ChileDepartment of Geography, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, ChileGlaciers are of paramount importance in diverse environments, and due to the accelerated retreat experienced in recent decades, efforts have intensified to achieve a comprehensive understanding of key variables such as mass balance and glacial melting. However, the scarcity of data in regions that are difficult to access, such as the Andes Cordillera, hinders reliable glaciological studies of the historical period. This study examined the mass balance and melting dynamics of the Universidad Glacier, the largest in the semi-arid Andes, from 1955 to 2020, using the physically based Cold Regions Hydrological Model (CRHM). The model was calibrated with geodetic mass balance estimates available between 1955 and 2020 and evaluated against on-site observations available between 2012 and 2014. Change point analysis revealed three contrasting periods of mass balance evolution: significant mass loss for the periods 1955–1971 and 2006–2020 and near-equilibrium mass balance from 1971 to 2006. These loss and gain periods align with the negative phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the positive ENSO (El Niño) events, respectively. Simulated runoff from glacier melt showed a positive trend of 8% per decade since 1971. Calibrated and uncalibrated versions of the model showed similar temporal variability, but cumulative mass balance differed significantly. The model calibrated from 1955 to 2020 had a minimal overestimation of 0.1% in mass loss and slightly improved the representation of the annual albedo. Relative to this best-performing model, the model calibrated with geodetic mass balance estimates from 2000 to 2020 overestimated mass loss by 25%, whereas the uncalibrated model overestimated mass balance by 62%. Physically based modeling with parameters adjusted based on field observations is adequate to reproduce the most salient features of MB interannual variability. However, long-term projections may diverge significantly, and albedo parameterizations, including its spatial and temporal evolution throughout a glacier surface, are an avenue for future research.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2025.1517081/fullglacier mass balanceextratropical Andes Cordillerahydrological modelingenergy balance modelinggeodetic surface changealbedo calibration |
| spellingShingle | Alonso Mejías Alonso Mejías James McPhee James McPhee Hazem Mahmoud David Farías-Barahona Christophe Kinnard Shelley MacDonell Shelley MacDonell Santiago Montserrat Marcelo Somos-Valenzuela Alfonso Fernandez Multidecadal estimation of hydrological contribution and glacier mass balance in the semi-arid Andes based on physically based modeling and geodetic mass balance Frontiers in Earth Science glacier mass balance extratropical Andes Cordillera hydrological modeling energy balance modeling geodetic surface change albedo calibration |
| title | Multidecadal estimation of hydrological contribution and glacier mass balance in the semi-arid Andes based on physically based modeling and geodetic mass balance |
| title_full | Multidecadal estimation of hydrological contribution and glacier mass balance in the semi-arid Andes based on physically based modeling and geodetic mass balance |
| title_fullStr | Multidecadal estimation of hydrological contribution and glacier mass balance in the semi-arid Andes based on physically based modeling and geodetic mass balance |
| title_full_unstemmed | Multidecadal estimation of hydrological contribution and glacier mass balance in the semi-arid Andes based on physically based modeling and geodetic mass balance |
| title_short | Multidecadal estimation of hydrological contribution and glacier mass balance in the semi-arid Andes based on physically based modeling and geodetic mass balance |
| title_sort | multidecadal estimation of hydrological contribution and glacier mass balance in the semi arid andes based on physically based modeling and geodetic mass balance |
| topic | glacier mass balance extratropical Andes Cordillera hydrological modeling energy balance modeling geodetic surface change albedo calibration |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2025.1517081/full |
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