Quantitative cancer-immunity cycle modeling for predicting disease progression in advanced metastatic colorectal cancer

Abstract Patients with advanced metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) typically exhibit significant interindividual differences in treatment responses and face poor survival outcomes. To systematically analyze the heterogeneous tumor progression and recurrence observed in advanced mCRC patients, we de...

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Main Authors: Chenghang Li, Yongchang Wei, Jinzhi Lei
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Nature Portfolio 2025-04-01
Series:npj Systems Biology and Applications
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41540-025-00513-1
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author Chenghang Li
Yongchang Wei
Jinzhi Lei
author_facet Chenghang Li
Yongchang Wei
Jinzhi Lei
author_sort Chenghang Li
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Patients with advanced metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) typically exhibit significant interindividual differences in treatment responses and face poor survival outcomes. To systematically analyze the heterogeneous tumor progression and recurrence observed in advanced mCRC patients, we developed a quantitative cancer-immunity cycle (QCIC) model. The QCIC model employs differential equations to capture the biological mechanisms underlying the cancer-immunity cycle and predicts tumor evolution dynamics under various treatment strategies through stochastic computational methods. We introduce the treatment response index (TRI) to quantify disease progression in virtual clinical trials and the death probability function (DPF) to estimate overall survival. Additionally, we investigate the impact of predictive biomarkers on survival prognosis in advanced mCRC patients, identifying tumor-infiltrating CD8+ cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTLs) as key predictors of disease progression and the tumor-infiltrating CD4+ Th1/Treg ratio as a significant determinant of survival outcomes. This study presents an approach that bridges the gap between diverse clinical data sources and the generation of virtual patient cohorts, providing valuable insights into interindividual treatment variability and survival forecasting in mCRC patients.
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spelling doaj-art-8b908467778b4f668a2e7fb3bfc82a312025-08-20T02:11:42ZengNature Portfolionpj Systems Biology and Applications2056-71892025-04-0111111710.1038/s41540-025-00513-1Quantitative cancer-immunity cycle modeling for predicting disease progression in advanced metastatic colorectal cancerChenghang Li0Yongchang Wei1Jinzhi Lei2School of Mathematical Sciences, Tiangong UniversityDepartment of Radiation and Medical Oncology, Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan UniversitySchool of Mathematical Sciences, Tiangong UniversityAbstract Patients with advanced metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) typically exhibit significant interindividual differences in treatment responses and face poor survival outcomes. To systematically analyze the heterogeneous tumor progression and recurrence observed in advanced mCRC patients, we developed a quantitative cancer-immunity cycle (QCIC) model. The QCIC model employs differential equations to capture the biological mechanisms underlying the cancer-immunity cycle and predicts tumor evolution dynamics under various treatment strategies through stochastic computational methods. We introduce the treatment response index (TRI) to quantify disease progression in virtual clinical trials and the death probability function (DPF) to estimate overall survival. Additionally, we investigate the impact of predictive biomarkers on survival prognosis in advanced mCRC patients, identifying tumor-infiltrating CD8+ cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTLs) as key predictors of disease progression and the tumor-infiltrating CD4+ Th1/Treg ratio as a significant determinant of survival outcomes. This study presents an approach that bridges the gap between diverse clinical data sources and the generation of virtual patient cohorts, providing valuable insights into interindividual treatment variability and survival forecasting in mCRC patients.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41540-025-00513-1
spellingShingle Chenghang Li
Yongchang Wei
Jinzhi Lei
Quantitative cancer-immunity cycle modeling for predicting disease progression in advanced metastatic colorectal cancer
npj Systems Biology and Applications
title Quantitative cancer-immunity cycle modeling for predicting disease progression in advanced metastatic colorectal cancer
title_full Quantitative cancer-immunity cycle modeling for predicting disease progression in advanced metastatic colorectal cancer
title_fullStr Quantitative cancer-immunity cycle modeling for predicting disease progression in advanced metastatic colorectal cancer
title_full_unstemmed Quantitative cancer-immunity cycle modeling for predicting disease progression in advanced metastatic colorectal cancer
title_short Quantitative cancer-immunity cycle modeling for predicting disease progression in advanced metastatic colorectal cancer
title_sort quantitative cancer immunity cycle modeling for predicting disease progression in advanced metastatic colorectal cancer
url https://doi.org/10.1038/s41540-025-00513-1
work_keys_str_mv AT chenghangli quantitativecancerimmunitycyclemodelingforpredictingdiseaseprogressioninadvancedmetastaticcolorectalcancer
AT yongchangwei quantitativecancerimmunitycyclemodelingforpredictingdiseaseprogressioninadvancedmetastaticcolorectalcancer
AT jinzhilei quantitativecancerimmunitycyclemodelingforpredictingdiseaseprogressioninadvancedmetastaticcolorectalcancer