Hazard Analysis of Weather Conditions on Distribution Transformer Failures via Cox Proportional Hazard Model
As the operational years of power facilities increase, the importance of accurately assessing the remaining lifespan or risk of failures of distribution transformers for the stable power supply has also grown. However, unlike the typical transformer failures, it is not quantified that the failures a...
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IEEE
2025-01-01
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| Online Access: | https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/10848080/ |
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| author | Cheonkyu Park Chongeun Cho Do-In Kim |
| author_facet | Cheonkyu Park Chongeun Cho Do-In Kim |
| author_sort | Cheonkyu Park |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | As the operational years of power facilities increase, the importance of accurately assessing the remaining lifespan or risk of failures of distribution transformers for the stable power supply has also grown. However, unlike the typical transformer failures, it is not quantified that the failures are also influenced by weather conditions such as temperature, humidity, precipitation, etc. In this regard, we propose the method for investigating the impact of the weather conditions on the failures of distribution transformers to improve the asset management. By employing survival analysis approach, frameworks are employed to quantify the spatial influence of weather conditions on distribution transformer failures, and the weather risk factors are integrated into lifespan indicators to improve maintenance strategies and reliability assessments. Distribution transformer failure cases of over 11 years in South Korea and the corresponding historical weather conditions are configured to enable the survival analysis and derive the meaningful real-world analysis results. Specifically, weather data are quantified and interpolated to configure the spatial data. The notable results underline quantifying significant impact of high summer temperature and humidity in term of hazard ratios. These findings indicate that incorporating historical weather data into asset management indices can significantly enhance the accuracy of transformer lifespan predictions and inform maintenance planning. This study represents the first long-term survival analysis correlating historical weather conditions with transformer failures and provides a guideline for improving power-facility management in the context of environmental changes. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-8b8a42a01f464c9fb28e977586bd185e |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2169-3536 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | IEEE |
| record_format | Article |
| series | IEEE Access |
| spelling | doaj-art-8b8a42a01f464c9fb28e977586bd185e2025-01-31T00:01:19ZengIEEEIEEE Access2169-35362025-01-0113174141742510.1109/ACCESS.2025.353250710848080Hazard Analysis of Weather Conditions on Distribution Transformer Failures via Cox Proportional Hazard ModelCheonkyu Park0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3506-3947Chongeun Cho1Do-In Kim2https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5629-1183Graduate School of Data Science, Kangwon National University, Chuncheon-si, Gangwon-do, South KoreaKorea Electric Power Corporation Research Institute, Daejeon, South KoreaDepartment of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Kangwon National University, Chuncheon-si, Gangwon-do, South KoreaAs the operational years of power facilities increase, the importance of accurately assessing the remaining lifespan or risk of failures of distribution transformers for the stable power supply has also grown. However, unlike the typical transformer failures, it is not quantified that the failures are also influenced by weather conditions such as temperature, humidity, precipitation, etc. In this regard, we propose the method for investigating the impact of the weather conditions on the failures of distribution transformers to improve the asset management. By employing survival analysis approach, frameworks are employed to quantify the spatial influence of weather conditions on distribution transformer failures, and the weather risk factors are integrated into lifespan indicators to improve maintenance strategies and reliability assessments. Distribution transformer failure cases of over 11 years in South Korea and the corresponding historical weather conditions are configured to enable the survival analysis and derive the meaningful real-world analysis results. Specifically, weather data are quantified and interpolated to configure the spatial data. The notable results underline quantifying significant impact of high summer temperature and humidity in term of hazard ratios. These findings indicate that incorporating historical weather data into asset management indices can significantly enhance the accuracy of transformer lifespan predictions and inform maintenance planning. This study represents the first long-term survival analysis correlating historical weather conditions with transformer failures and provides a guideline for improving power-facility management in the context of environmental changes.https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/10848080/Distribution transformersweather conditionsurvival analysiscox proportional hazards modelasset management |
| spellingShingle | Cheonkyu Park Chongeun Cho Do-In Kim Hazard Analysis of Weather Conditions on Distribution Transformer Failures via Cox Proportional Hazard Model IEEE Access Distribution transformers weather condition survival analysis cox proportional hazards model asset management |
| title | Hazard Analysis of Weather Conditions on Distribution Transformer Failures via Cox Proportional Hazard Model |
| title_full | Hazard Analysis of Weather Conditions on Distribution Transformer Failures via Cox Proportional Hazard Model |
| title_fullStr | Hazard Analysis of Weather Conditions on Distribution Transformer Failures via Cox Proportional Hazard Model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Hazard Analysis of Weather Conditions on Distribution Transformer Failures via Cox Proportional Hazard Model |
| title_short | Hazard Analysis of Weather Conditions on Distribution Transformer Failures via Cox Proportional Hazard Model |
| title_sort | hazard analysis of weather conditions on distribution transformer failures via cox proportional hazard model |
| topic | Distribution transformers weather condition survival analysis cox proportional hazards model asset management |
| url | https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/10848080/ |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT cheonkyupark hazardanalysisofweatherconditionsondistributiontransformerfailuresviacoxproportionalhazardmodel AT chongeuncho hazardanalysisofweatherconditionsondistributiontransformerfailuresviacoxproportionalhazardmodel AT doinkim hazardanalysisofweatherconditionsondistributiontransformerfailuresviacoxproportionalhazardmodel |