Hazard Analysis of Weather Conditions on Distribution Transformer Failures via Cox Proportional Hazard Model

As the operational years of power facilities increase, the importance of accurately assessing the remaining lifespan or risk of failures of distribution transformers for the stable power supply has also grown. However, unlike the typical transformer failures, it is not quantified that the failures a...

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Main Authors: Cheonkyu Park, Chongeun Cho, Do-In Kim
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: IEEE 2025-01-01
Series:IEEE Access
Subjects:
Online Access:https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/10848080/
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author Cheonkyu Park
Chongeun Cho
Do-In Kim
author_facet Cheonkyu Park
Chongeun Cho
Do-In Kim
author_sort Cheonkyu Park
collection DOAJ
description As the operational years of power facilities increase, the importance of accurately assessing the remaining lifespan or risk of failures of distribution transformers for the stable power supply has also grown. However, unlike the typical transformer failures, it is not quantified that the failures are also influenced by weather conditions such as temperature, humidity, precipitation, etc. In this regard, we propose the method for investigating the impact of the weather conditions on the failures of distribution transformers to improve the asset management. By employing survival analysis approach, frameworks are employed to quantify the spatial influence of weather conditions on distribution transformer failures, and the weather risk factors are integrated into lifespan indicators to improve maintenance strategies and reliability assessments. Distribution transformer failure cases of over 11 years in South Korea and the corresponding historical weather conditions are configured to enable the survival analysis and derive the meaningful real-world analysis results. Specifically, weather data are quantified and interpolated to configure the spatial data. The notable results underline quantifying significant impact of high summer temperature and humidity in term of hazard ratios. These findings indicate that incorporating historical weather data into asset management indices can significantly enhance the accuracy of transformer lifespan predictions and inform maintenance planning. This study represents the first long-term survival analysis correlating historical weather conditions with transformer failures and provides a guideline for improving power-facility management in the context of environmental changes.
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spelling doaj-art-8b8a42a01f464c9fb28e977586bd185e2025-01-31T00:01:19ZengIEEEIEEE Access2169-35362025-01-0113174141742510.1109/ACCESS.2025.353250710848080Hazard Analysis of Weather Conditions on Distribution Transformer Failures via Cox Proportional Hazard ModelCheonkyu Park0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3506-3947Chongeun Cho1Do-In Kim2https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5629-1183Graduate School of Data Science, Kangwon National University, Chuncheon-si, Gangwon-do, South KoreaKorea Electric Power Corporation Research Institute, Daejeon, South KoreaDepartment of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Kangwon National University, Chuncheon-si, Gangwon-do, South KoreaAs the operational years of power facilities increase, the importance of accurately assessing the remaining lifespan or risk of failures of distribution transformers for the stable power supply has also grown. However, unlike the typical transformer failures, it is not quantified that the failures are also influenced by weather conditions such as temperature, humidity, precipitation, etc. In this regard, we propose the method for investigating the impact of the weather conditions on the failures of distribution transformers to improve the asset management. By employing survival analysis approach, frameworks are employed to quantify the spatial influence of weather conditions on distribution transformer failures, and the weather risk factors are integrated into lifespan indicators to improve maintenance strategies and reliability assessments. Distribution transformer failure cases of over 11 years in South Korea and the corresponding historical weather conditions are configured to enable the survival analysis and derive the meaningful real-world analysis results. Specifically, weather data are quantified and interpolated to configure the spatial data. The notable results underline quantifying significant impact of high summer temperature and humidity in term of hazard ratios. These findings indicate that incorporating historical weather data into asset management indices can significantly enhance the accuracy of transformer lifespan predictions and inform maintenance planning. This study represents the first long-term survival analysis correlating historical weather conditions with transformer failures and provides a guideline for improving power-facility management in the context of environmental changes.https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/10848080/Distribution transformersweather conditionsurvival analysiscox proportional hazards modelasset management
spellingShingle Cheonkyu Park
Chongeun Cho
Do-In Kim
Hazard Analysis of Weather Conditions on Distribution Transformer Failures via Cox Proportional Hazard Model
IEEE Access
Distribution transformers
weather condition
survival analysis
cox proportional hazards model
asset management
title Hazard Analysis of Weather Conditions on Distribution Transformer Failures via Cox Proportional Hazard Model
title_full Hazard Analysis of Weather Conditions on Distribution Transformer Failures via Cox Proportional Hazard Model
title_fullStr Hazard Analysis of Weather Conditions on Distribution Transformer Failures via Cox Proportional Hazard Model
title_full_unstemmed Hazard Analysis of Weather Conditions on Distribution Transformer Failures via Cox Proportional Hazard Model
title_short Hazard Analysis of Weather Conditions on Distribution Transformer Failures via Cox Proportional Hazard Model
title_sort hazard analysis of weather conditions on distribution transformer failures via cox proportional hazard model
topic Distribution transformers
weather condition
survival analysis
cox proportional hazards model
asset management
url https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/10848080/
work_keys_str_mv AT cheonkyupark hazardanalysisofweatherconditionsondistributiontransformerfailuresviacoxproportionalhazardmodel
AT chongeuncho hazardanalysisofweatherconditionsondistributiontransformerfailuresviacoxproportionalhazardmodel
AT doinkim hazardanalysisofweatherconditionsondistributiontransformerfailuresviacoxproportionalhazardmodel