Identification of recurrences in women diagnosed with early invasive breast cancer using routinely collected data in England

Abstract Background Breast cancer is the commonest cancer in the UK, with around 55,000 women diagnosed annually. Information is routinely available on breast cancer mortality but not on recurrence. Methods We used a database compiled by the West Midlands Cancer Intelligence Unit during 1997–2011 to...

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Main Authors: Jake Probert, David Dodwell, John Broggio, Robert Coleman, Helen Marshall, Sarah C. Darby, Gurdeep S. Mannu
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Nature Portfolio 2025-05-01
Series:BJC Reports
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1038/s44276-025-00154-1
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author Jake Probert
David Dodwell
John Broggio
Robert Coleman
Helen Marshall
Sarah C. Darby
Gurdeep S. Mannu
author_facet Jake Probert
David Dodwell
John Broggio
Robert Coleman
Helen Marshall
Sarah C. Darby
Gurdeep S. Mannu
author_sort Jake Probert
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Background Breast cancer is the commonest cancer in the UK, with around 55,000 women diagnosed annually. Information is routinely available on breast cancer mortality but not on recurrence. Methods We used a database compiled by the West Midlands Cancer Intelligence Unit during 1997–2011 to develop and train a deterministic algorithm to identify recurrences in routinely collected data (RCD) available within NHS England. We trained the algorithm further using 150 women with stage II-III breast cancer who were recruited into the AZURE trial during 2003–2006 and invited to approximately 24 clinic follow-up visits over ten years. We then evaluated its performance using data for the remaining 1930 women in England in the AZURE trial. Results The sensitivity of the RCD to detect distant recurrences recorded in the AZURE trial during the ten years following randomisation was 95.6% and its sensitivity to detect any recurrence was 96.6%. The corresponding specificities were 91.9% for distant recurrence and 77.7% for any recurrence. Conclusions These findings demonstrate the potential of routinely collected data to identify breast cancer recurrences in England. The algorithm may have a role in several settings and make long-term follow-up in randomised trials of breast cancer treatments more cost-effective.
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spelling doaj-art-8b5807860cd8416fbbe703bc9b908bda2025-08-20T02:39:02ZengNature PortfolioBJC Reports2731-93772025-05-013111210.1038/s44276-025-00154-1Identification of recurrences in women diagnosed with early invasive breast cancer using routinely collected data in EnglandJake Probert0David Dodwell1John Broggio2Robert Coleman3Helen Marshall4Sarah C. Darby5Gurdeep S. Mannu6Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of OxfordNuffield Department of Population Health, University of OxfordNational Cancer Registration and Analysis Service, National Disease Registration ServiceDepartment of Oncology and Metabolism, University of SheffieldLeeds Cancer Research Clinical Trial Unit, University of LeedsNuffield Department of Population Health, University of OxfordNuffield Department of Population Health, University of OxfordAbstract Background Breast cancer is the commonest cancer in the UK, with around 55,000 women diagnosed annually. Information is routinely available on breast cancer mortality but not on recurrence. Methods We used a database compiled by the West Midlands Cancer Intelligence Unit during 1997–2011 to develop and train a deterministic algorithm to identify recurrences in routinely collected data (RCD) available within NHS England. We trained the algorithm further using 150 women with stage II-III breast cancer who were recruited into the AZURE trial during 2003–2006 and invited to approximately 24 clinic follow-up visits over ten years. We then evaluated its performance using data for the remaining 1930 women in England in the AZURE trial. Results The sensitivity of the RCD to detect distant recurrences recorded in the AZURE trial during the ten years following randomisation was 95.6% and its sensitivity to detect any recurrence was 96.6%. The corresponding specificities were 91.9% for distant recurrence and 77.7% for any recurrence. Conclusions These findings demonstrate the potential of routinely collected data to identify breast cancer recurrences in England. The algorithm may have a role in several settings and make long-term follow-up in randomised trials of breast cancer treatments more cost-effective.https://doi.org/10.1038/s44276-025-00154-1
spellingShingle Jake Probert
David Dodwell
John Broggio
Robert Coleman
Helen Marshall
Sarah C. Darby
Gurdeep S. Mannu
Identification of recurrences in women diagnosed with early invasive breast cancer using routinely collected data in England
BJC Reports
title Identification of recurrences in women diagnosed with early invasive breast cancer using routinely collected data in England
title_full Identification of recurrences in women diagnosed with early invasive breast cancer using routinely collected data in England
title_fullStr Identification of recurrences in women diagnosed with early invasive breast cancer using routinely collected data in England
title_full_unstemmed Identification of recurrences in women diagnosed with early invasive breast cancer using routinely collected data in England
title_short Identification of recurrences in women diagnosed with early invasive breast cancer using routinely collected data in England
title_sort identification of recurrences in women diagnosed with early invasive breast cancer using routinely collected data in england
url https://doi.org/10.1038/s44276-025-00154-1
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