Forecasting the Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccination Using Vector Autoregressive with an Exogenous Variable: On the Cases of COVID-19 in Indonesia
This study aims to forecast the COVID-19 spread in Indonesia involving vaccination factors using vector autoregressive with exogenous variables (VARX). The COVID-19 spread represented by active, recovered, and death case rate indicators acts as endogenous variables, while the COVID-19 vaccination re...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2023-01-01
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| Series: | Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2023/6285328 |
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| author | Sukono Sukono Riza Andrian Ibrahim Riaman Riaman Elis Hertini Yuyun Hidayat Jumadil Saputra |
| author_facet | Sukono Sukono Riza Andrian Ibrahim Riaman Riaman Elis Hertini Yuyun Hidayat Jumadil Saputra |
| author_sort | Sukono Sukono |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study aims to forecast the COVID-19 spread in Indonesia involving vaccination factors using vector autoregressive with exogenous variables (VARX). The COVID-19 spread represented by active, recovered, and death case rate indicators acts as endogenous variables, while the COVID-19 vaccination represented by second-dose vaccination rates acts as exogenous variables. Because the sum of three COVID-19 spread indicators in one day is one, only two indicators with the highest correlation rates are involved in VARX modelling. The other indicator is practically projected by subtracting one from the sum of two indicator projection results. Based on the analysis results, the active and recovered case rates are two indicators chosen in VARX modelling. Using Akaike information criterion, the most suitable VARX model to project the case and recovered case rates are VARX (7, 1). This model is expected to help the Indonesian government project the COVID-19 spread in Indonesia. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-8b3b6e5b41334211baae197c08e035cd |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1607-887X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society |
| spelling | doaj-art-8b3b6e5b41334211baae197c08e035cd2025-08-20T02:09:25ZengWileyDiscrete Dynamics in Nature and Society1607-887X2023-01-01202310.1155/2023/6285328Forecasting the Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccination Using Vector Autoregressive with an Exogenous Variable: On the Cases of COVID-19 in IndonesiaSukono Sukono0Riza Andrian Ibrahim1Riaman Riaman2Elis Hertini3Yuyun Hidayat4Jumadil Saputra5Universitas PadjadjaranUniversitas PadjadjaranUniversitas PadjadjaranUniversitas PadjadjaranUniversitas PadjadjaranUniversiti Malaysia TerengganuThis study aims to forecast the COVID-19 spread in Indonesia involving vaccination factors using vector autoregressive with exogenous variables (VARX). The COVID-19 spread represented by active, recovered, and death case rate indicators acts as endogenous variables, while the COVID-19 vaccination represented by second-dose vaccination rates acts as exogenous variables. Because the sum of three COVID-19 spread indicators in one day is one, only two indicators with the highest correlation rates are involved in VARX modelling. The other indicator is practically projected by subtracting one from the sum of two indicator projection results. Based on the analysis results, the active and recovered case rates are two indicators chosen in VARX modelling. Using Akaike information criterion, the most suitable VARX model to project the case and recovered case rates are VARX (7, 1). This model is expected to help the Indonesian government project the COVID-19 spread in Indonesia.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2023/6285328 |
| spellingShingle | Sukono Sukono Riza Andrian Ibrahim Riaman Riaman Elis Hertini Yuyun Hidayat Jumadil Saputra Forecasting the Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccination Using Vector Autoregressive with an Exogenous Variable: On the Cases of COVID-19 in Indonesia Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society |
| title | Forecasting the Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccination Using Vector Autoregressive with an Exogenous Variable: On the Cases of COVID-19 in Indonesia |
| title_full | Forecasting the Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccination Using Vector Autoregressive with an Exogenous Variable: On the Cases of COVID-19 in Indonesia |
| title_fullStr | Forecasting the Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccination Using Vector Autoregressive with an Exogenous Variable: On the Cases of COVID-19 in Indonesia |
| title_full_unstemmed | Forecasting the Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccination Using Vector Autoregressive with an Exogenous Variable: On the Cases of COVID-19 in Indonesia |
| title_short | Forecasting the Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccination Using Vector Autoregressive with an Exogenous Variable: On the Cases of COVID-19 in Indonesia |
| title_sort | forecasting the effectiveness of covid 19 vaccination using vector autoregressive with an exogenous variable on the cases of covid 19 in indonesia |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2023/6285328 |
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