Future Extreme Climate Events Threaten Alpine and Subalpine Woody Plants in China
Abstract Increases in the frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme climate events (ECEs) are already impacting ecosystems, with many of the strongest effects associated with high‐elevation areas. Most research on the ecological impacts of climate change has focused on climatic averages, which m...
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| Format: | Article |
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Wiley
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Earth's Future |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005147 |
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| author | Yongru Wu Jian Shen David C. Deane Haibin Yu Fangyuan Yu Xuerong Wang Zheng Cao Rong Yu Fuan Xiao Tiejun Wang Zhifeng Wu |
| author_facet | Yongru Wu Jian Shen David C. Deane Haibin Yu Fangyuan Yu Xuerong Wang Zheng Cao Rong Yu Fuan Xiao Tiejun Wang Zhifeng Wu |
| author_sort | Yongru Wu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Increases in the frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme climate events (ECEs) are already impacting ecosystems, with many of the strongest effects associated with high‐elevation areas. Most research on the ecological impacts of climate change has focused on climatic averages, which might differ from ECEs. Rhododendron, a diverse genus of alpine and subalpine woody plant, plays a crucial role in ecosystem stability and biodiversity in the biodiversity hotspots of the Himalayas and Hengduan Mountains. Here, we compared the predicted impacts of average climate with those including ECEs on 189 Rhododendron species in China for the historical period (1981–2010) and the future period (2071–2100) under two emissions scenarios (SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5). We analyzed changes in suitable habitat and patterns of species richness, weighted endemism, and phylogenetic diversity, identifying areas of coinciding high‐risk as priority conservation areas. Inclusion of ECEs altered the projected areas of suitable habitat across all species from an increase of over 3% to a decrease exceeding 10%, with the distribution of most Rhododendron species strongly influenced by extremes of drought and high temperatures. We found fewer than 18% of high‐risk areas of diversity loss were currently protected, with priority conservation areas mainly located in the Daxue, Daliang, Wumeng, and Jade Dragon Snow Mountains, as well as in the Nyingchi. We suggest inclusion of ECEs is critical when projecting changes in alpine and subalpine species distributions for effective conservation planning for climate change. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-8aa762005f3d47cb83dbfa164096b190 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2328-4277 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Earth's Future |
| spelling | doaj-art-8aa762005f3d47cb83dbfa164096b1902025-01-28T15:40:37ZengWileyEarth's Future2328-42772025-01-01131n/an/a10.1029/2024EF005147Future Extreme Climate Events Threaten Alpine and Subalpine Woody Plants in ChinaYongru Wu0Jian Shen1David C. Deane2Haibin Yu3Fangyuan Yu4Xuerong Wang5Zheng Cao6Rong Yu7Fuan Xiao8Tiejun Wang9Zhifeng Wu10School of Geography and Remote Sensing Guangzhou University Guangzhou ChinaInstitute of Agricultural Resources and Environment Guangdong Academy of Agricultural Sciences Guangzhou ChinaDepartment of Environment & Genetics La Trobe University Bundoora VIC AustraliaSchool of Life Sciences Guangzhou University Guangzhou ChinaSchool of Geography and Remote Sensing Guangzhou University Guangzhou ChinaSchool of Geography and Remote Sensing Guangzhou University Guangzhou ChinaSchool of Geography and Remote Sensing Guangzhou University Guangzhou ChinaState Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing ChinaSchool of Geography and Remote Sensing Guangzhou University Guangzhou ChinaDepartment of Natural Resources Faculty of Geo‐Information Science and Earth Observation University of Twente Enschede The NetherlandsSchool of Geography and Remote Sensing Guangzhou University Guangzhou ChinaAbstract Increases in the frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme climate events (ECEs) are already impacting ecosystems, with many of the strongest effects associated with high‐elevation areas. Most research on the ecological impacts of climate change has focused on climatic averages, which might differ from ECEs. Rhododendron, a diverse genus of alpine and subalpine woody plant, plays a crucial role in ecosystem stability and biodiversity in the biodiversity hotspots of the Himalayas and Hengduan Mountains. Here, we compared the predicted impacts of average climate with those including ECEs on 189 Rhododendron species in China for the historical period (1981–2010) and the future period (2071–2100) under two emissions scenarios (SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5). We analyzed changes in suitable habitat and patterns of species richness, weighted endemism, and phylogenetic diversity, identifying areas of coinciding high‐risk as priority conservation areas. Inclusion of ECEs altered the projected areas of suitable habitat across all species from an increase of over 3% to a decrease exceeding 10%, with the distribution of most Rhododendron species strongly influenced by extremes of drought and high temperatures. We found fewer than 18% of high‐risk areas of diversity loss were currently protected, with priority conservation areas mainly located in the Daxue, Daliang, Wumeng, and Jade Dragon Snow Mountains, as well as in the Nyingchi. We suggest inclusion of ECEs is critical when projecting changes in alpine and subalpine species distributions for effective conservation planning for climate change.https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005147alpine and subalpine woody plantsextreme climate eventsphylogenetic diversityprotected areasspecies distribution modelingweighted endemism |
| spellingShingle | Yongru Wu Jian Shen David C. Deane Haibin Yu Fangyuan Yu Xuerong Wang Zheng Cao Rong Yu Fuan Xiao Tiejun Wang Zhifeng Wu Future Extreme Climate Events Threaten Alpine and Subalpine Woody Plants in China Earth's Future alpine and subalpine woody plants extreme climate events phylogenetic diversity protected areas species distribution modeling weighted endemism |
| title | Future Extreme Climate Events Threaten Alpine and Subalpine Woody Plants in China |
| title_full | Future Extreme Climate Events Threaten Alpine and Subalpine Woody Plants in China |
| title_fullStr | Future Extreme Climate Events Threaten Alpine and Subalpine Woody Plants in China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Future Extreme Climate Events Threaten Alpine and Subalpine Woody Plants in China |
| title_short | Future Extreme Climate Events Threaten Alpine and Subalpine Woody Plants in China |
| title_sort | future extreme climate events threaten alpine and subalpine woody plants in china |
| topic | alpine and subalpine woody plants extreme climate events phylogenetic diversity protected areas species distribution modeling weighted endemism |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005147 |
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