Dynamic and Thermodynamic Control of the Response of Winter Climate and Extreme Weather to Projected Arctic Sea‐Ice Loss
Abstract A novel sub‐sampling method has been used to isolate the dynamic effects of the response of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Siberian High (SH) from the total response to projected Arctic sea‐ice loss under 2°C global warming above preindustrial levels in very large initial‐cond...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2024-07-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL109271 |
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| author | Kunhui Ye Tim Woollings Sarah N. Sparrow |
| author_facet | Kunhui Ye Tim Woollings Sarah N. Sparrow |
| author_sort | Kunhui Ye |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract A novel sub‐sampling method has been used to isolate the dynamic effects of the response of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Siberian High (SH) from the total response to projected Arctic sea‐ice loss under 2°C global warming above preindustrial levels in very large initial‐condition ensemble climate simulations. Thermodynamic effects of Arctic warming are more prominent in Europe while dynamic effects are more prominent in Asia/East Asia. This explains less‐severe cold extremes in Europe but more‐severe cold extremes in Asia/East Asia. For Northern Eurasia, dynamic effects overwhelm the effect of increased moisture from a warming Arctic, leading to an overall decrease in precipitation. We show that the response scales linearly with the dynamic response. However, caution is needed when interpreting inter‐model differences in the response because of internal variability, which can largely explain the inter‐model spread in the NAO and SH response in the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-8a9d40353fba4baa822118a7d5ae66f6 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-07-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-8a9d40353fba4baa822118a7d5ae66f62025-08-20T02:46:06ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072024-07-015113n/an/a10.1029/2024GL109271Dynamic and Thermodynamic Control of the Response of Winter Climate and Extreme Weather to Projected Arctic Sea‐Ice LossKunhui Ye0Tim Woollings1Sarah N. Sparrow2Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics University of Oxford Oxford UKAtmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics University of Oxford Oxford UKOxford e‐Research Centre Engineering Science University of Oxford Oxford UKAbstract A novel sub‐sampling method has been used to isolate the dynamic effects of the response of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Siberian High (SH) from the total response to projected Arctic sea‐ice loss under 2°C global warming above preindustrial levels in very large initial‐condition ensemble climate simulations. Thermodynamic effects of Arctic warming are more prominent in Europe while dynamic effects are more prominent in Asia/East Asia. This explains less‐severe cold extremes in Europe but more‐severe cold extremes in Asia/East Asia. For Northern Eurasia, dynamic effects overwhelm the effect of increased moisture from a warming Arctic, leading to an overall decrease in precipitation. We show that the response scales linearly with the dynamic response. However, caution is needed when interpreting inter‐model differences in the response because of internal variability, which can largely explain the inter‐model spread in the NAO and SH response in the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project.https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL109271projected Arctic sea‐ice lossclimate and weather responsesub‐sampling methodvery large‐ensemble climate modelingdynamicsthermodynamics |
| spellingShingle | Kunhui Ye Tim Woollings Sarah N. Sparrow Dynamic and Thermodynamic Control of the Response of Winter Climate and Extreme Weather to Projected Arctic Sea‐Ice Loss Geophysical Research Letters projected Arctic sea‐ice loss climate and weather response sub‐sampling method very large‐ensemble climate modeling dynamics thermodynamics |
| title | Dynamic and Thermodynamic Control of the Response of Winter Climate and Extreme Weather to Projected Arctic Sea‐Ice Loss |
| title_full | Dynamic and Thermodynamic Control of the Response of Winter Climate and Extreme Weather to Projected Arctic Sea‐Ice Loss |
| title_fullStr | Dynamic and Thermodynamic Control of the Response of Winter Climate and Extreme Weather to Projected Arctic Sea‐Ice Loss |
| title_full_unstemmed | Dynamic and Thermodynamic Control of the Response of Winter Climate and Extreme Weather to Projected Arctic Sea‐Ice Loss |
| title_short | Dynamic and Thermodynamic Control of the Response of Winter Climate and Extreme Weather to Projected Arctic Sea‐Ice Loss |
| title_sort | dynamic and thermodynamic control of the response of winter climate and extreme weather to projected arctic sea ice loss |
| topic | projected Arctic sea‐ice loss climate and weather response sub‐sampling method very large‐ensemble climate modeling dynamics thermodynamics |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL109271 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT kunhuiye dynamicandthermodynamiccontroloftheresponseofwinterclimateandextremeweathertoprojectedarcticseaiceloss AT timwoollings dynamicandthermodynamiccontroloftheresponseofwinterclimateandextremeweathertoprojectedarcticseaiceloss AT sarahnsparrow dynamicandthermodynamiccontroloftheresponseofwinterclimateandextremeweathertoprojectedarcticseaiceloss |