High-Resolution Flow and Phosphorus Forecasting Using ANN Models, Catering for Extremes in the Case of the River Swale (UK)

The forecasting of river flows and pollutant concentrations is essential in supporting mitigation measures for anthropogenic and climate change effects on rivers and their environment. This paper addresses two aspects receiving little attention in the literature: high-resolution (sub-daily) data-dri...

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Main Authors: Elisabeta Cristina Timis, Horia Hangan, Vasile Mircea Cristea, Norbert Botond Mihaly, Michael George Hutchins
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2025-01-01
Series:Hydrology
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2306-5338/12/2/20
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author Elisabeta Cristina Timis
Horia Hangan
Vasile Mircea Cristea
Norbert Botond Mihaly
Michael George Hutchins
author_facet Elisabeta Cristina Timis
Horia Hangan
Vasile Mircea Cristea
Norbert Botond Mihaly
Michael George Hutchins
author_sort Elisabeta Cristina Timis
collection DOAJ
description The forecasting of river flows and pollutant concentrations is essential in supporting mitigation measures for anthropogenic and climate change effects on rivers and their environment. This paper addresses two aspects receiving little attention in the literature: high-resolution (sub-daily) data-driven modeling and the prediction of phosphorus compounds. It presents a series of artificial neural networks (ANNs) to forecast flows and the concentrations of soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) and total phosphorus (TP) under a wide range of conditions, including low flows and storm events (0.74 to 484 m<sup>3</sup>/s). Results show correct forecast along a stretch of the River Swale (UK) with an anticipation of up to 15 h, at resolutions of up to 3 h. The concentration prediction is improved compared to a previous application of an advection–dispersion model.
format Article
id doaj-art-8a894510d0c04d1f8dc24231c2550ca0
institution DOAJ
issn 2306-5338
language English
publishDate 2025-01-01
publisher MDPI AG
record_format Article
series Hydrology
spelling doaj-art-8a894510d0c04d1f8dc24231c2550ca02025-08-20T03:12:05ZengMDPI AGHydrology2306-53382025-01-011222010.3390/hydrology12020020High-Resolution Flow and Phosphorus Forecasting Using ANN Models, Catering for Extremes in the Case of the River Swale (UK)Elisabeta Cristina Timis0Horia Hangan1Vasile Mircea Cristea2Norbert Botond Mihaly3Michael George Hutchins4Department of Chemical Engineering, Computer Aided Process Engineering Research Centre, “Babes-Bolyai” University, Cluj-Napoca, 11 Arany Janos, 400028 Cluj, RomaniaDepartment of Chemical Engineering, Computer Aided Process Engineering Research Centre, “Babes-Bolyai” University, Cluj-Napoca, 11 Arany Janos, 400028 Cluj, RomaniaDepartment of Chemical Engineering, Computer Aided Process Engineering Research Centre, “Babes-Bolyai” University, Cluj-Napoca, 11 Arany Janos, 400028 Cluj, RomaniaDepartment of Chemical Engineering, Computer Aided Process Engineering Research Centre, “Babes-Bolyai” University, Cluj-Napoca, 11 Arany Janos, 400028 Cluj, RomaniaUK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology Wallingford, Oxford OX10 8BB, UKThe forecasting of river flows and pollutant concentrations is essential in supporting mitigation measures for anthropogenic and climate change effects on rivers and their environment. This paper addresses two aspects receiving little attention in the literature: high-resolution (sub-daily) data-driven modeling and the prediction of phosphorus compounds. It presents a series of artificial neural networks (ANNs) to forecast flows and the concentrations of soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) and total phosphorus (TP) under a wide range of conditions, including low flows and storm events (0.74 to 484 m<sup>3</sup>/s). Results show correct forecast along a stretch of the River Swale (UK) with an anticipation of up to 15 h, at resolutions of up to 3 h. The concentration prediction is improved compared to a previous application of an advection–dispersion model.https://www.mdpi.com/2306-5338/12/2/20pollutant transport forecasthydrological modelartificial neural networksriver flow forecastin-river phosphorus modelhigh-resolution model
spellingShingle Elisabeta Cristina Timis
Horia Hangan
Vasile Mircea Cristea
Norbert Botond Mihaly
Michael George Hutchins
High-Resolution Flow and Phosphorus Forecasting Using ANN Models, Catering for Extremes in the Case of the River Swale (UK)
Hydrology
pollutant transport forecast
hydrological model
artificial neural networks
river flow forecast
in-river phosphorus model
high-resolution model
title High-Resolution Flow and Phosphorus Forecasting Using ANN Models, Catering for Extremes in the Case of the River Swale (UK)
title_full High-Resolution Flow and Phosphorus Forecasting Using ANN Models, Catering for Extremes in the Case of the River Swale (UK)
title_fullStr High-Resolution Flow and Phosphorus Forecasting Using ANN Models, Catering for Extremes in the Case of the River Swale (UK)
title_full_unstemmed High-Resolution Flow and Phosphorus Forecasting Using ANN Models, Catering for Extremes in the Case of the River Swale (UK)
title_short High-Resolution Flow and Phosphorus Forecasting Using ANN Models, Catering for Extremes in the Case of the River Swale (UK)
title_sort high resolution flow and phosphorus forecasting using ann models catering for extremes in the case of the river swale uk
topic pollutant transport forecast
hydrological model
artificial neural networks
river flow forecast
in-river phosphorus model
high-resolution model
url https://www.mdpi.com/2306-5338/12/2/20
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AT horiahangan highresolutionflowandphosphorusforecastingusingannmodelscateringforextremesinthecaseoftheriverswaleuk
AT vasilemirceacristea highresolutionflowandphosphorusforecastingusingannmodelscateringforextremesinthecaseoftheriverswaleuk
AT norbertbotondmihaly highresolutionflowandphosphorusforecastingusingannmodelscateringforextremesinthecaseoftheriverswaleuk
AT michaelgeorgehutchins highresolutionflowandphosphorusforecastingusingannmodelscateringforextremesinthecaseoftheriverswaleuk