Probabilistic model of electric vehicles’ flexibility in residential areas

This paper presents a probabilistic model for the flexibility assessment of electric vehicles in residential areas. The flexibility is modelled and evaluated in terms of the aggregate charging demand which can be rescheduled to prevent exceeding network capacity. Developed model and corresponding ca...

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Main Authors: Emir Nukic, Victor Levi, Nikola Vojnovic, Dragan Cetenovic
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Elsevier 2025-07-01
Series:International Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems
Subjects:
Online Access:http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0142061525002765
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author Emir Nukic
Victor Levi
Nikola Vojnovic
Dragan Cetenovic
author_facet Emir Nukic
Victor Levi
Nikola Vojnovic
Dragan Cetenovic
author_sort Emir Nukic
collection DOAJ
description This paper presents a probabilistic model for the flexibility assessment of electric vehicles in residential areas. The flexibility is modelled and evaluated in terms of the aggregate charging demand which can be rescheduled to prevent exceeding network capacity. Developed model and corresponding calculations are based on the algebra of random variables. Main factors which affect the flexibility of electric vehicles are identified and modelled first. Modelled quantities and their mutual links are then incorporated into the probabilistic model. Cumulative distribution of charging duration, discrete probability of charging on particular day and discrete probabilities of possible start charging time are presented in the paper as the probabilistic model outputs. Finally, limits of available flexible capacity [kW] are calculated and presented as the main flexibility indicator for specified test cases. Presented results illustrate a potential for rescheduling charging sessions in different cases/scenarios. Developed model is expected to be of particular interest for distribution network planning during the 2020s and early 2030s.
format Article
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institution OA Journals
issn 0142-0615
language English
publishDate 2025-07-01
publisher Elsevier
record_format Article
series International Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems
spelling doaj-art-8a6676e30baf47488acaa034b8c4d9402025-08-20T01:51:58ZengElsevierInternational Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems0142-06152025-07-0116811072510.1016/j.ijepes.2025.110725Probabilistic model of electric vehicles’ flexibility in residential areasEmir Nukic0Victor Levi1Nikola Vojnovic2Dragan Cetenovic3The University of Manchester, Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Manchester, United Kingdom; Corresponding author.The University of Manchester, Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Manchester, United KingdomUniversity of Novi Sad, Faculty of Technical Sciences, Novi Sad, SerbiaThe University of Manchester, Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Manchester, United Kingdom; University of Kragujevac, Faculty of Technical Sciences Cacak, Cacak, SerbiaThis paper presents a probabilistic model for the flexibility assessment of electric vehicles in residential areas. The flexibility is modelled and evaluated in terms of the aggregate charging demand which can be rescheduled to prevent exceeding network capacity. Developed model and corresponding calculations are based on the algebra of random variables. Main factors which affect the flexibility of electric vehicles are identified and modelled first. Modelled quantities and their mutual links are then incorporated into the probabilistic model. Cumulative distribution of charging duration, discrete probability of charging on particular day and discrete probabilities of possible start charging time are presented in the paper as the probabilistic model outputs. Finally, limits of available flexible capacity [kW] are calculated and presented as the main flexibility indicator for specified test cases. Presented results illustrate a potential for rescheduling charging sessions in different cases/scenarios. Developed model is expected to be of particular interest for distribution network planning during the 2020s and early 2030s.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0142061525002765Electric vehiclesDemand-side flexibilityProbabilistic modelDistribution network
spellingShingle Emir Nukic
Victor Levi
Nikola Vojnovic
Dragan Cetenovic
Probabilistic model of electric vehicles’ flexibility in residential areas
International Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems
Electric vehicles
Demand-side flexibility
Probabilistic model
Distribution network
title Probabilistic model of electric vehicles’ flexibility in residential areas
title_full Probabilistic model of electric vehicles’ flexibility in residential areas
title_fullStr Probabilistic model of electric vehicles’ flexibility in residential areas
title_full_unstemmed Probabilistic model of electric vehicles’ flexibility in residential areas
title_short Probabilistic model of electric vehicles’ flexibility in residential areas
title_sort probabilistic model of electric vehicles flexibility in residential areas
topic Electric vehicles
Demand-side flexibility
Probabilistic model
Distribution network
url http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0142061525002765
work_keys_str_mv AT emirnukic probabilisticmodelofelectricvehiclesflexibilityinresidentialareas
AT victorlevi probabilisticmodelofelectricvehiclesflexibilityinresidentialareas
AT nikolavojnovic probabilisticmodelofelectricvehiclesflexibilityinresidentialareas
AT dragancetenovic probabilisticmodelofelectricvehiclesflexibilityinresidentialareas