Probabilistic model of electric vehicles’ flexibility in residential areas
This paper presents a probabilistic model for the flexibility assessment of electric vehicles in residential areas. The flexibility is modelled and evaluated in terms of the aggregate charging demand which can be rescheduled to prevent exceeding network capacity. Developed model and corresponding ca...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2025-07-01
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| Series: | International Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0142061525002765 |
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| author | Emir Nukic Victor Levi Nikola Vojnovic Dragan Cetenovic |
| author_facet | Emir Nukic Victor Levi Nikola Vojnovic Dragan Cetenovic |
| author_sort | Emir Nukic |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This paper presents a probabilistic model for the flexibility assessment of electric vehicles in residential areas. The flexibility is modelled and evaluated in terms of the aggregate charging demand which can be rescheduled to prevent exceeding network capacity. Developed model and corresponding calculations are based on the algebra of random variables. Main factors which affect the flexibility of electric vehicles are identified and modelled first. Modelled quantities and their mutual links are then incorporated into the probabilistic model. Cumulative distribution of charging duration, discrete probability of charging on particular day and discrete probabilities of possible start charging time are presented in the paper as the probabilistic model outputs. Finally, limits of available flexible capacity [kW] are calculated and presented as the main flexibility indicator for specified test cases. Presented results illustrate a potential for rescheduling charging sessions in different cases/scenarios. Developed model is expected to be of particular interest for distribution network planning during the 2020s and early 2030s. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-8a6676e30baf47488acaa034b8c4d940 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 0142-0615 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-07-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | International Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems |
| spelling | doaj-art-8a6676e30baf47488acaa034b8c4d9402025-08-20T01:51:58ZengElsevierInternational Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems0142-06152025-07-0116811072510.1016/j.ijepes.2025.110725Probabilistic model of electric vehicles’ flexibility in residential areasEmir Nukic0Victor Levi1Nikola Vojnovic2Dragan Cetenovic3The University of Manchester, Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Manchester, United Kingdom; Corresponding author.The University of Manchester, Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Manchester, United KingdomUniversity of Novi Sad, Faculty of Technical Sciences, Novi Sad, SerbiaThe University of Manchester, Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Manchester, United Kingdom; University of Kragujevac, Faculty of Technical Sciences Cacak, Cacak, SerbiaThis paper presents a probabilistic model for the flexibility assessment of electric vehicles in residential areas. The flexibility is modelled and evaluated in terms of the aggregate charging demand which can be rescheduled to prevent exceeding network capacity. Developed model and corresponding calculations are based on the algebra of random variables. Main factors which affect the flexibility of electric vehicles are identified and modelled first. Modelled quantities and their mutual links are then incorporated into the probabilistic model. Cumulative distribution of charging duration, discrete probability of charging on particular day and discrete probabilities of possible start charging time are presented in the paper as the probabilistic model outputs. Finally, limits of available flexible capacity [kW] are calculated and presented as the main flexibility indicator for specified test cases. Presented results illustrate a potential for rescheduling charging sessions in different cases/scenarios. Developed model is expected to be of particular interest for distribution network planning during the 2020s and early 2030s.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0142061525002765Electric vehiclesDemand-side flexibilityProbabilistic modelDistribution network |
| spellingShingle | Emir Nukic Victor Levi Nikola Vojnovic Dragan Cetenovic Probabilistic model of electric vehicles’ flexibility in residential areas International Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems Electric vehicles Demand-side flexibility Probabilistic model Distribution network |
| title | Probabilistic model of electric vehicles’ flexibility in residential areas |
| title_full | Probabilistic model of electric vehicles’ flexibility in residential areas |
| title_fullStr | Probabilistic model of electric vehicles’ flexibility in residential areas |
| title_full_unstemmed | Probabilistic model of electric vehicles’ flexibility in residential areas |
| title_short | Probabilistic model of electric vehicles’ flexibility in residential areas |
| title_sort | probabilistic model of electric vehicles flexibility in residential areas |
| topic | Electric vehicles Demand-side flexibility Probabilistic model Distribution network |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0142061525002765 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT emirnukic probabilisticmodelofelectricvehiclesflexibilityinresidentialareas AT victorlevi probabilisticmodelofelectricvehiclesflexibilityinresidentialareas AT nikolavojnovic probabilisticmodelofelectricvehiclesflexibilityinresidentialareas AT dragancetenovic probabilisticmodelofelectricvehiclesflexibilityinresidentialareas |