SIMBOL: A method to co-produce impact-based seasonal outlooks
Communities across the world are sensitive to the impacts of seasonal climate variability, particularly in regions where distinct rainfall seasons support livelihoods and economic activities. Timely and actionable warnings of hazardous seasonal conditions and advisories tailored to different sectors...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2025-04-01
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| Series: | Climate Services |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880725000408 |
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| author | Joseph Daron Katerina Michaelides Khalid Hassaballah Andrés Quichimbo Rebecca Parfitt Jessica Stacey Anna Steynor Catrina Johnson David MacLeod Michael Bliss Singer |
| author_facet | Joseph Daron Katerina Michaelides Khalid Hassaballah Andrés Quichimbo Rebecca Parfitt Jessica Stacey Anna Steynor Catrina Johnson David MacLeod Michael Bliss Singer |
| author_sort | Joseph Daron |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Communities across the world are sensitive to the impacts of seasonal climate variability, particularly in regions where distinct rainfall seasons support livelihoods and economic activities. Timely and actionable warnings of hazardous seasonal conditions and advisories tailored to different sectors can enable people to respond, reduce risks, and seize opportunities. Yet despite advances in seasonal forecasting methods and capabilities, there remains a lack of “impact-based” seasonal climate outlooks that more directly serve societal needs while preserving uncertainty information for risk-based decision making. Here we present a new method to address this gap, focusing on implementation in Regional and National Climate Outlook Forums and targeted at intermediary users who support the communication of seasonal outlooks across scales. The Seasonal IMpact-Based OutLook (SIMBOL) method provides a simple and scalable approach for use in regions across the world. We describe the conceptual basis for the method, embedded in the Impact-Based Forecasting (IBF) framework, and demonstrate its application through a case study of seasonal total rainfall impacts on groundwater in Somalia, trialled at the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF) in February 2024. We elaborate the critical role of co-production amongst different knowledge holders for characterizing impacts across all potential outlook outcomes, avoiding advisories that are biased towards the “most likely” outcome. We also discuss the importance of objective evidence from impact modelling and observations to consider antecedent conditions. Lessons learned and challenges encountered in developing the method are discussed to inform opportunities for future development and implementation in different contexts. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-8a483dedb5424ea483e2bd4f671d62b3 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2405-8807 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-04-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Climate Services |
| spelling | doaj-art-8a483dedb5424ea483e2bd4f671d62b32025-08-20T02:32:18ZengElsevierClimate Services2405-88072025-04-013810057910.1016/j.cliser.2025.100579SIMBOL: A method to co-produce impact-based seasonal outlooksJoseph Daron0Katerina Michaelides1Khalid Hassaballah2Andrés Quichimbo3Rebecca Parfitt4Jessica Stacey5Anna Steynor6Catrina Johnson7David MacLeod8Michael Bliss Singer9School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK; Met Office, Exeter, UKSchool of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UKIGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre – ICPAC, Nairobi, KenyaSchool of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Cardiff, Cardiff, UKMet Office, Exeter, UKMet Office, Exeter, UKMet Office, Exeter, UKMet Office, Exeter, UKSchool of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Cardiff, Cardiff, UKSchool of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Cardiff, Cardiff, UK; Earth Research Institute, University of California Santa Barbara, CA, USACommunities across the world are sensitive to the impacts of seasonal climate variability, particularly in regions where distinct rainfall seasons support livelihoods and economic activities. Timely and actionable warnings of hazardous seasonal conditions and advisories tailored to different sectors can enable people to respond, reduce risks, and seize opportunities. Yet despite advances in seasonal forecasting methods and capabilities, there remains a lack of “impact-based” seasonal climate outlooks that more directly serve societal needs while preserving uncertainty information for risk-based decision making. Here we present a new method to address this gap, focusing on implementation in Regional and National Climate Outlook Forums and targeted at intermediary users who support the communication of seasonal outlooks across scales. The Seasonal IMpact-Based OutLook (SIMBOL) method provides a simple and scalable approach for use in regions across the world. We describe the conceptual basis for the method, embedded in the Impact-Based Forecasting (IBF) framework, and demonstrate its application through a case study of seasonal total rainfall impacts on groundwater in Somalia, trialled at the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF) in February 2024. We elaborate the critical role of co-production amongst different knowledge holders for characterizing impacts across all potential outlook outcomes, avoiding advisories that are biased towards the “most likely” outcome. We also discuss the importance of objective evidence from impact modelling and observations to consider antecedent conditions. Lessons learned and challenges encountered in developing the method are discussed to inform opportunities for future development and implementation in different contexts.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880725000408Early warningSeasonal forecastsDisaster preparednessImpact-based forecasting |
| spellingShingle | Joseph Daron Katerina Michaelides Khalid Hassaballah Andrés Quichimbo Rebecca Parfitt Jessica Stacey Anna Steynor Catrina Johnson David MacLeod Michael Bliss Singer SIMBOL: A method to co-produce impact-based seasonal outlooks Climate Services Early warning Seasonal forecasts Disaster preparedness Impact-based forecasting |
| title | SIMBOL: A method to co-produce impact-based seasonal outlooks |
| title_full | SIMBOL: A method to co-produce impact-based seasonal outlooks |
| title_fullStr | SIMBOL: A method to co-produce impact-based seasonal outlooks |
| title_full_unstemmed | SIMBOL: A method to co-produce impact-based seasonal outlooks |
| title_short | SIMBOL: A method to co-produce impact-based seasonal outlooks |
| title_sort | simbol a method to co produce impact based seasonal outlooks |
| topic | Early warning Seasonal forecasts Disaster preparedness Impact-based forecasting |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880725000408 |
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