Century‐scale causal relationships between global dry/wet conditions and the state of the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans
Abstract The Granger causality test is used to examine the effects of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on global dry/wet conditions. The results show robust relationships between dry/wet conditions and the ocean...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2016-06-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL069628 |
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| author | Qiaohong Sun Chiyuan Miao Amir AghaKouchak Qingyun Duan |
| author_facet | Qiaohong Sun Chiyuan Miao Amir AghaKouchak Qingyun Duan |
| author_sort | Qiaohong Sun |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The Granger causality test is used to examine the effects of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on global dry/wet conditions. The results show robust relationships between dry/wet conditions and the ocean states, as assessed through a multi‐index (standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index and standardized precipitation index) and multiscale (3 months and 12 months) evaluation. The influence of ENSO events is widespread, dominating about 38% of the global land surface (excluding Antarctica). Southern and western North America, northern South America, and eastern Russia are influenced by the PDO. The NAO influences not only dry/wet conditions in Europe but also dry/wet conditions in northern Africa. Similarly, climate variability in southern Europe and northern Africa may be due to the concurrence of the ENSO and the NAO. Knowledge of the spatial influence of ocean states on global dry/wet conditions is valuable for improving drought and flood forecasting. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-8a47e2df8a1f4e01a4fc6021ca2e851f |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2016-06-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-8a47e2df8a1f4e01a4fc6021ca2e851f2025-08-20T01:50:59ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072016-06-0143126528653710.1002/2016GL069628Century‐scale causal relationships between global dry/wet conditions and the state of the Pacific and Atlantic OceansQiaohong Sun0Chiyuan Miao1Amir AghaKouchak2Qingyun Duan3State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, College of Global Change and Earth System Science Beijing Normal University Beijing ChinaState Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, College of Global Change and Earth System Science Beijing Normal University Beijing ChinaCenter for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of California Irvine California USAState Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, College of Global Change and Earth System Science Beijing Normal University Beijing ChinaAbstract The Granger causality test is used to examine the effects of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on global dry/wet conditions. The results show robust relationships between dry/wet conditions and the ocean states, as assessed through a multi‐index (standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index and standardized precipitation index) and multiscale (3 months and 12 months) evaluation. The influence of ENSO events is widespread, dominating about 38% of the global land surface (excluding Antarctica). Southern and western North America, northern South America, and eastern Russia are influenced by the PDO. The NAO influences not only dry/wet conditions in Europe but also dry/wet conditions in northern Africa. Similarly, climate variability in southern Europe and northern Africa may be due to the concurrence of the ENSO and the NAO. Knowledge of the spatial influence of ocean states on global dry/wet conditions is valuable for improving drought and flood forecasting.https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL069628droughtEl Niño–Southern OscillationPacific Decadal OscillationNorth Atlantic Oscillation |
| spellingShingle | Qiaohong Sun Chiyuan Miao Amir AghaKouchak Qingyun Duan Century‐scale causal relationships between global dry/wet conditions and the state of the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans Geophysical Research Letters drought El Niño–Southern Oscillation Pacific Decadal Oscillation North Atlantic Oscillation |
| title | Century‐scale causal relationships between global dry/wet conditions and the state of the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans |
| title_full | Century‐scale causal relationships between global dry/wet conditions and the state of the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans |
| title_fullStr | Century‐scale causal relationships between global dry/wet conditions and the state of the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans |
| title_full_unstemmed | Century‐scale causal relationships between global dry/wet conditions and the state of the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans |
| title_short | Century‐scale causal relationships between global dry/wet conditions and the state of the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans |
| title_sort | century scale causal relationships between global dry wet conditions and the state of the pacific and atlantic oceans |
| topic | drought El Niño–Southern Oscillation Pacific Decadal Oscillation North Atlantic Oscillation |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL069628 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT qiaohongsun centuryscalecausalrelationshipsbetweenglobaldrywetconditionsandthestateofthepacificandatlanticoceans AT chiyuanmiao centuryscalecausalrelationshipsbetweenglobaldrywetconditionsandthestateofthepacificandatlanticoceans AT amiraghakouchak centuryscalecausalrelationshipsbetweenglobaldrywetconditionsandthestateofthepacificandatlanticoceans AT qingyunduan centuryscalecausalrelationshipsbetweenglobaldrywetconditionsandthestateofthepacificandatlanticoceans |