Projected Future Changes in Tropical Cyclones Using the CMIP6 HighResMIP Multimodel Ensemble
Abstract Future changes in tropical cyclone properties are an important component of climate change impacts and risk for many tropical and midlatitude countries. In this study we assess the performance of a multimodel ensemble of climate models, at resolutions ranging from 250 to 25 km. We use a com...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2020-07-01
|
| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL088662 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1849328069188255744 |
|---|---|
| author | Malcolm John Roberts Joanne Camp Jon Seddon Pier Luigi Vidale Kevin Hodges Benoît Vannière Jenny Mecking Rein Haarsma Alessio Bellucci Enrico Scoccimarro Louis‐Philippe Caron Fabrice Chauvin Laurent Terray Sophie Valcke Marie‐Pierre Moine Dian Putrasahan Christopher D. Roberts Retish Senan Colin Zarzycki Paul Ullrich Yohei Yamada Ryo Mizuta Chihiro Kodama Dan Fu Qiuying Zhang Gokhan Danabasoglu Nan Rosenbloom Hong Wang Lixin Wu |
| author_facet | Malcolm John Roberts Joanne Camp Jon Seddon Pier Luigi Vidale Kevin Hodges Benoît Vannière Jenny Mecking Rein Haarsma Alessio Bellucci Enrico Scoccimarro Louis‐Philippe Caron Fabrice Chauvin Laurent Terray Sophie Valcke Marie‐Pierre Moine Dian Putrasahan Christopher D. Roberts Retish Senan Colin Zarzycki Paul Ullrich Yohei Yamada Ryo Mizuta Chihiro Kodama Dan Fu Qiuying Zhang Gokhan Danabasoglu Nan Rosenbloom Hong Wang Lixin Wu |
| author_sort | Malcolm John Roberts |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Future changes in tropical cyclone properties are an important component of climate change impacts and risk for many tropical and midlatitude countries. In this study we assess the performance of a multimodel ensemble of climate models, at resolutions ranging from 250 to 25 km. We use a common experimental design including both atmosphere‐only and coupled simulations run over the period 1950–2050, with two tracking algorithms applied uniformly across the models. There are overall improvements in tropical cyclone frequency, spatial distribution, and intensity in models at 25 km resolution, with several of them able to represent very intense storms. Projected tropical cyclone activity by 2050 generally declines in the South Indian Ocean, while changes in other ocean basins are more uncertain and sensitive to both tracking algorithm and imposed forcings. Coupled models with smaller biases suggest a slight increase in average TC 10 m wind speeds by 2050. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-8a32da8424eb450989a1a61021faced1 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2020-07-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-8a32da8424eb450989a1a61021faced12025-08-20T03:47:41ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072020-07-014714n/an/a10.1029/2020GL088662Projected Future Changes in Tropical Cyclones Using the CMIP6 HighResMIP Multimodel EnsembleMalcolm John Roberts0Joanne Camp1Jon Seddon2Pier Luigi Vidale3Kevin Hodges4Benoît Vannière5Jenny Mecking6Rein Haarsma7Alessio Bellucci8Enrico Scoccimarro9Louis‐Philippe Caron10Fabrice Chauvin11Laurent Terray12Sophie Valcke13Marie‐Pierre Moine14Dian Putrasahan15Christopher D. Roberts16Retish Senan17Colin Zarzycki18Paul Ullrich19Yohei Yamada20Ryo Mizuta21Chihiro Kodama22Dan Fu23Qiuying Zhang24Gokhan Danabasoglu25Nan Rosenbloom26Hong Wang27Lixin Wu28Met Office Exeter UKMet Office Exeter UKMet Office Exeter UKNational Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS) University of Reading Reading UKNational Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS) University of Reading Reading UKNational Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS) University of Reading Reading UKOcean and Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre Southampton University of Southampton Southampton UKKoninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut (KNMI) De Bilt The NetherlandsFondazione Centro Euro‐Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC) Bologna ItalyFondazione Centro Euro‐Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC) Bologna ItalyBarcelona Supercomputing Center—Centro Nacional de Supercomputación (BSC) Barcelona SpainCentre National de Recherches Météorologiques—Centre Europeen de Recherche et de Formation Avancee en Calcul Scientifique (CNRM‐CERFACS) Toulouse FranceCECI, Université de Toulouse, CERFACS/CNRS Toulouse FranceCECI, Université de Toulouse, CERFACS/CNRS Toulouse FranceCECI, Université de Toulouse, CERFACS/CNRS Toulouse FranceMax‐Planck‐Gesellschaft zur Förderung der Wissenschaften E.V. (MPI‐M) Hamburg GermanyEuropean Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) Reading UKEuropean Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) Reading UKDepartment of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science Penn State University State College PA USADepartment of Land, Air and Water Resources University of California, Davis Davis CA USAJAMSTEC Tokyo JapanMeteorological Research Institute (MRI) Tsukuba JapanJAMSTEC Tokyo JapanDepartment of Oceanography Texas A&M University College Station TX USADepartment of Oceanography Texas A&M University College Station TX USANational Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Boulder CA USANational Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Boulder CA USAQingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science (QNLM) Qingdao ChinaQingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science (QNLM) Qingdao ChinaAbstract Future changes in tropical cyclone properties are an important component of climate change impacts and risk for many tropical and midlatitude countries. In this study we assess the performance of a multimodel ensemble of climate models, at resolutions ranging from 250 to 25 km. We use a common experimental design including both atmosphere‐only and coupled simulations run over the period 1950–2050, with two tracking algorithms applied uniformly across the models. There are overall improvements in tropical cyclone frequency, spatial distribution, and intensity in models at 25 km resolution, with several of them able to represent very intense storms. Projected tropical cyclone activity by 2050 generally declines in the South Indian Ocean, while changes in other ocean basins are more uncertain and sensitive to both tracking algorithm and imposed forcings. Coupled models with smaller biases suggest a slight increase in average TC 10 m wind speeds by 2050.https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL088662high resolutiontropical cyclonesfuture changetracking algorithmsmodel biasCMIP6 |
| spellingShingle | Malcolm John Roberts Joanne Camp Jon Seddon Pier Luigi Vidale Kevin Hodges Benoît Vannière Jenny Mecking Rein Haarsma Alessio Bellucci Enrico Scoccimarro Louis‐Philippe Caron Fabrice Chauvin Laurent Terray Sophie Valcke Marie‐Pierre Moine Dian Putrasahan Christopher D. Roberts Retish Senan Colin Zarzycki Paul Ullrich Yohei Yamada Ryo Mizuta Chihiro Kodama Dan Fu Qiuying Zhang Gokhan Danabasoglu Nan Rosenbloom Hong Wang Lixin Wu Projected Future Changes in Tropical Cyclones Using the CMIP6 HighResMIP Multimodel Ensemble Geophysical Research Letters high resolution tropical cyclones future change tracking algorithms model bias CMIP6 |
| title | Projected Future Changes in Tropical Cyclones Using the CMIP6 HighResMIP Multimodel Ensemble |
| title_full | Projected Future Changes in Tropical Cyclones Using the CMIP6 HighResMIP Multimodel Ensemble |
| title_fullStr | Projected Future Changes in Tropical Cyclones Using the CMIP6 HighResMIP Multimodel Ensemble |
| title_full_unstemmed | Projected Future Changes in Tropical Cyclones Using the CMIP6 HighResMIP Multimodel Ensemble |
| title_short | Projected Future Changes in Tropical Cyclones Using the CMIP6 HighResMIP Multimodel Ensemble |
| title_sort | projected future changes in tropical cyclones using the cmip6 highresmip multimodel ensemble |
| topic | high resolution tropical cyclones future change tracking algorithms model bias CMIP6 |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL088662 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT malcolmjohnroberts projectedfuturechangesintropicalcyclonesusingthecmip6highresmipmultimodelensemble AT joannecamp projectedfuturechangesintropicalcyclonesusingthecmip6highresmipmultimodelensemble AT jonseddon projectedfuturechangesintropicalcyclonesusingthecmip6highresmipmultimodelensemble AT pierluigividale projectedfuturechangesintropicalcyclonesusingthecmip6highresmipmultimodelensemble AT kevinhodges projectedfuturechangesintropicalcyclonesusingthecmip6highresmipmultimodelensemble AT benoitvanniere projectedfuturechangesintropicalcyclonesusingthecmip6highresmipmultimodelensemble AT jennymecking projectedfuturechangesintropicalcyclonesusingthecmip6highresmipmultimodelensemble AT reinhaarsma projectedfuturechangesintropicalcyclonesusingthecmip6highresmipmultimodelensemble AT alessiobellucci projectedfuturechangesintropicalcyclonesusingthecmip6highresmipmultimodelensemble AT enricoscoccimarro projectedfuturechangesintropicalcyclonesusingthecmip6highresmipmultimodelensemble AT louisphilippecaron projectedfuturechangesintropicalcyclonesusingthecmip6highresmipmultimodelensemble AT fabricechauvin projectedfuturechangesintropicalcyclonesusingthecmip6highresmipmultimodelensemble AT laurentterray projectedfuturechangesintropicalcyclonesusingthecmip6highresmipmultimodelensemble AT sophievalcke projectedfuturechangesintropicalcyclonesusingthecmip6highresmipmultimodelensemble AT mariepierremoine projectedfuturechangesintropicalcyclonesusingthecmip6highresmipmultimodelensemble AT dianputrasahan projectedfuturechangesintropicalcyclonesusingthecmip6highresmipmultimodelensemble AT christopherdroberts projectedfuturechangesintropicalcyclonesusingthecmip6highresmipmultimodelensemble AT retishsenan projectedfuturechangesintropicalcyclonesusingthecmip6highresmipmultimodelensemble AT colinzarzycki projectedfuturechangesintropicalcyclonesusingthecmip6highresmipmultimodelensemble AT paulullrich projectedfuturechangesintropicalcyclonesusingthecmip6highresmipmultimodelensemble AT yoheiyamada projectedfuturechangesintropicalcyclonesusingthecmip6highresmipmultimodelensemble AT ryomizuta projectedfuturechangesintropicalcyclonesusingthecmip6highresmipmultimodelensemble AT chihirokodama projectedfuturechangesintropicalcyclonesusingthecmip6highresmipmultimodelensemble AT danfu projectedfuturechangesintropicalcyclonesusingthecmip6highresmipmultimodelensemble AT qiuyingzhang projectedfuturechangesintropicalcyclonesusingthecmip6highresmipmultimodelensemble AT gokhandanabasoglu projectedfuturechangesintropicalcyclonesusingthecmip6highresmipmultimodelensemble AT nanrosenbloom projectedfuturechangesintropicalcyclonesusingthecmip6highresmipmultimodelensemble AT hongwang projectedfuturechangesintropicalcyclonesusingthecmip6highresmipmultimodelensemble AT lixinwu projectedfuturechangesintropicalcyclonesusingthecmip6highresmipmultimodelensemble |