Runoff Simulation of Dadu River Basin Based on CORDEX Regional Climate Models
Studying the prediction of the runoff in Dadu River Basin under climate changes can effectively improve the future utilization rate of the water resources in this basin and provide a reference for hydropower dispatching.Specifically,stepwise clustering analysis is performed to correct and verify the...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | zho |
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Editorial Office of Pearl River
2022-01-01
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| Series: | Renmin Zhujiang |
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| Online Access: | http://www.renminzhujiang.cn/thesisDetails#10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235.2022.08.009 |
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| _version_ | 1841535792394010624 |
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| author | PAN Zhangrong GUO Junhong FU Zhenghui WANG Shuhang LI Wei CHEN Zhuo QING Hui |
| author_facet | PAN Zhangrong GUO Junhong FU Zhenghui WANG Shuhang LI Wei CHEN Zhuo QING Hui |
| author_sort | PAN Zhangrong |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Studying the prediction of the runoff in Dadu River Basin under climate changes can effectively improve the future utilization rate of the water resources in this basin and provide a reference for hydropower dispatching.Specifically,stepwise clustering analysis is performed to correct and verify the 1970—2005 data of six coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment (CORDEX) regional climate models and thereby simulated the climate change trend of Dadu River Basin during 2030—2065.Then,an annual-scale Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model of Dadu River Basin was built and calibrated and verified by SWAT-CUP.Finally,the corrected meteorological data of the future period were used to drive the SWAT model and ultimately to forecast the future runoff in Dadu River Basin.The results show that in this basin,precipitation will change slightly,and the maximum temperature and the minimum temperature will increase on the whole under future representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.The future runoff will roughly assume an increasing trend,and the runoff fluctuation trend before and after 2050 will be inconsistent.In other words,the runoff change is small before 2050,whereas the trend of runoff change under both scenarios becomes significantly larger,suggesting higher uncertainties in the prediction of the runoff in this basin. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-8998eeaf1c95440ca18a462f56d138cc |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1001-9235 |
| language | zho |
| publishDate | 2022-01-01 |
| publisher | Editorial Office of Pearl River |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Renmin Zhujiang |
| spelling | doaj-art-8998eeaf1c95440ca18a462f56d138cc2025-01-15T02:27:04ZzhoEditorial Office of Pearl RiverRenmin Zhujiang1001-92352022-01-014347644580Runoff Simulation of Dadu River Basin Based on CORDEX Regional Climate ModelsPAN ZhangrongGUO JunhongFU ZhenghuiWANG ShuhangLI WeiCHEN ZhuoQING HuiStudying the prediction of the runoff in Dadu River Basin under climate changes can effectively improve the future utilization rate of the water resources in this basin and provide a reference for hydropower dispatching.Specifically,stepwise clustering analysis is performed to correct and verify the 1970—2005 data of six coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment (CORDEX) regional climate models and thereby simulated the climate change trend of Dadu River Basin during 2030—2065.Then,an annual-scale Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model of Dadu River Basin was built and calibrated and verified by SWAT-CUP.Finally,the corrected meteorological data of the future period were used to drive the SWAT model and ultimately to forecast the future runoff in Dadu River Basin.The results show that in this basin,precipitation will change slightly,and the maximum temperature and the minimum temperature will increase on the whole under future representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.The future runoff will roughly assume an increasing trend,and the runoff fluctuation trend before and after 2050 will be inconsistent.In other words,the runoff change is small before 2050,whereas the trend of runoff change under both scenarios becomes significantly larger,suggesting higher uncertainties in the prediction of the runoff in this basin.http://www.renminzhujiang.cn/thesisDetails#10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235.2022.08.009climate changeCORDEXSWATstepwise clusteringrunoff simulation |
| spellingShingle | PAN Zhangrong GUO Junhong FU Zhenghui WANG Shuhang LI Wei CHEN Zhuo QING Hui Runoff Simulation of Dadu River Basin Based on CORDEX Regional Climate Models Renmin Zhujiang climate change CORDEX SWAT stepwise clustering runoff simulation |
| title | Runoff Simulation of Dadu River Basin Based on CORDEX Regional Climate Models |
| title_full | Runoff Simulation of Dadu River Basin Based on CORDEX Regional Climate Models |
| title_fullStr | Runoff Simulation of Dadu River Basin Based on CORDEX Regional Climate Models |
| title_full_unstemmed | Runoff Simulation of Dadu River Basin Based on CORDEX Regional Climate Models |
| title_short | Runoff Simulation of Dadu River Basin Based on CORDEX Regional Climate Models |
| title_sort | runoff simulation of dadu river basin based on cordex regional climate models |
| topic | climate change CORDEX SWAT stepwise clustering runoff simulation |
| url | http://www.renminzhujiang.cn/thesisDetails#10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235.2022.08.009 |
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