Runoff Simulation of Dadu River Basin Based on CORDEX Regional Climate Models

Runoff Simulation of Dadu River Basin Based on CORDEX Regional Climate Models

Studying the prediction of the runoff in Dadu River Basin under climate changes can effectively improve the future utilization rate of the water resources in this basin and provide a reference for hydropower dispatching.Specifically,stepwise clustering analysis is performed to correct and verify the...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: PAN Zhangrong, GUO Junhong, FU Zhenghui, WANG Shuhang, LI Wei, CHEN Zhuo, QING Hui
Format: Article
Language:zho
Published: Editorial Office of Pearl River 2022-01-01
Series:Renmin Zhujiang
Subjects:
climate change
CORDEX
SWAT
stepwise clustering
runoff simulation
Online Access:http://www.renminzhujiang.cn/thesisDetails#10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235.2022.08.009
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Summary:Studying the prediction of the runoff in Dadu River Basin under climate changes can effectively improve the future utilization rate of the water resources in this basin and provide a reference for hydropower dispatching.Specifically,stepwise clustering analysis is performed to correct and verify the 1970—2005 data of six coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment (CORDEX) regional climate models and thereby simulated the climate change trend of Dadu River Basin during 2030—2065.Then,an annual-scale Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model of Dadu River Basin was built and calibrated and verified by SWAT-CUP.Finally,the corrected meteorological data of the future period were used to drive the SWAT model and ultimately to forecast the future runoff in Dadu River Basin.The results show that in this basin,precipitation will change slightly,and the maximum temperature and the minimum temperature will increase on the whole under future representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.The future runoff will roughly assume an increasing trend,and the runoff fluctuation trend before and after 2050 will be inconsistent.In other words,the runoff change is small before 2050,whereas the trend of runoff change under both scenarios becomes significantly larger,suggesting higher uncertainties in the prediction of the runoff in this basin.
ISSN:1001-9235

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