Machine learning prediction of non-attendance to postpartum glucose screening and subsequent risk of type 2 diabetes following gestational diabetes.

<h4>Objective</h4>The aim of the present study was to identify the factors associated with non-attendance of immediate postpartum glucose test using a machine learning algorithm following gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) pregnancy.<h4>Method</h4>A retrospective cohort stud...

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Main Authors: Nishanthi Periyathambi, Durga Parkhi, Yonas Ghebremichael-Weldeselassie, Vinod Patel, Nithya Sukumar, Rahul Siddharthan, Leelavati Narlikar, Ponnusamy Saravanan
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2022-01-01
Series:PLoS ONE
Online Access:https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0264648&type=printable
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author Nishanthi Periyathambi
Durga Parkhi
Yonas Ghebremichael-Weldeselassie
Vinod Patel
Nithya Sukumar
Rahul Siddharthan
Leelavati Narlikar
Ponnusamy Saravanan
author_facet Nishanthi Periyathambi
Durga Parkhi
Yonas Ghebremichael-Weldeselassie
Vinod Patel
Nithya Sukumar
Rahul Siddharthan
Leelavati Narlikar
Ponnusamy Saravanan
author_sort Nishanthi Periyathambi
collection DOAJ
description <h4>Objective</h4>The aim of the present study was to identify the factors associated with non-attendance of immediate postpartum glucose test using a machine learning algorithm following gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) pregnancy.<h4>Method</h4>A retrospective cohort study of all GDM women (n = 607) for postpartum glucose test due between January 2016 and December 2019 at the George Eliot Hospital NHS Trust, UK.<h4>Results</h4>Sixty-five percent of women attended postpartum glucose test. Type 2 diabetes was diagnosed in 2.8% and 21.6% had persistent dysglycaemia at 6-13 weeks post-delivery. Those who did not attend postpartum glucose test seem to be younger, multiparous, obese, and continued to smoke during pregnancy. They also had higher fasting glucose at antenatal oral glucose tolerance test. Our machine learning algorithm predicted postpartum glucose non-attendance with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.72. The model could achieve a sensitivity of 70% with 66% specificity at a risk score threshold of 0.46. A total of 233 (38.4%) women attended subsequent glucose test at least once within the first two years of delivery and 24% had dysglycaemia. Compared to women who attended postpartum glucose test, those who did not attend had higher conversion rate to type 2 diabetes (2.5% vs 11.4%; p = 0.005).<h4>Conclusion</h4>Postpartum screening following GDM is still poor. Women who did not attend postpartum screening appear to have higher metabolic risk and higher conversion to type 2 diabetes by two years post-delivery. Machine learning model can predict women who are unlikely to attend postpartum glucose test using simple antenatal factors. Enhanced, personalised education of these women may improve postpartum glucose screening.
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spelling doaj-art-896aa68adb3947329b809ea74b2ce1cb2025-08-20T03:46:21ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032022-01-01173e026464810.1371/journal.pone.0264648Machine learning prediction of non-attendance to postpartum glucose screening and subsequent risk of type 2 diabetes following gestational diabetes.Nishanthi PeriyathambiDurga ParkhiYonas Ghebremichael-WeldeselassieVinod PatelNithya SukumarRahul SiddharthanLeelavati NarlikarPonnusamy Saravanan<h4>Objective</h4>The aim of the present study was to identify the factors associated with non-attendance of immediate postpartum glucose test using a machine learning algorithm following gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) pregnancy.<h4>Method</h4>A retrospective cohort study of all GDM women (n = 607) for postpartum glucose test due between January 2016 and December 2019 at the George Eliot Hospital NHS Trust, UK.<h4>Results</h4>Sixty-five percent of women attended postpartum glucose test. Type 2 diabetes was diagnosed in 2.8% and 21.6% had persistent dysglycaemia at 6-13 weeks post-delivery. Those who did not attend postpartum glucose test seem to be younger, multiparous, obese, and continued to smoke during pregnancy. They also had higher fasting glucose at antenatal oral glucose tolerance test. Our machine learning algorithm predicted postpartum glucose non-attendance with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.72. The model could achieve a sensitivity of 70% with 66% specificity at a risk score threshold of 0.46. A total of 233 (38.4%) women attended subsequent glucose test at least once within the first two years of delivery and 24% had dysglycaemia. Compared to women who attended postpartum glucose test, those who did not attend had higher conversion rate to type 2 diabetes (2.5% vs 11.4%; p = 0.005).<h4>Conclusion</h4>Postpartum screening following GDM is still poor. Women who did not attend postpartum screening appear to have higher metabolic risk and higher conversion to type 2 diabetes by two years post-delivery. Machine learning model can predict women who are unlikely to attend postpartum glucose test using simple antenatal factors. Enhanced, personalised education of these women may improve postpartum glucose screening.https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0264648&type=printable
spellingShingle Nishanthi Periyathambi
Durga Parkhi
Yonas Ghebremichael-Weldeselassie
Vinod Patel
Nithya Sukumar
Rahul Siddharthan
Leelavati Narlikar
Ponnusamy Saravanan
Machine learning prediction of non-attendance to postpartum glucose screening and subsequent risk of type 2 diabetes following gestational diabetes.
PLoS ONE
title Machine learning prediction of non-attendance to postpartum glucose screening and subsequent risk of type 2 diabetes following gestational diabetes.
title_full Machine learning prediction of non-attendance to postpartum glucose screening and subsequent risk of type 2 diabetes following gestational diabetes.
title_fullStr Machine learning prediction of non-attendance to postpartum glucose screening and subsequent risk of type 2 diabetes following gestational diabetes.
title_full_unstemmed Machine learning prediction of non-attendance to postpartum glucose screening and subsequent risk of type 2 diabetes following gestational diabetes.
title_short Machine learning prediction of non-attendance to postpartum glucose screening and subsequent risk of type 2 diabetes following gestational diabetes.
title_sort machine learning prediction of non attendance to postpartum glucose screening and subsequent risk of type 2 diabetes following gestational diabetes
url https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0264648&type=printable
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