Policy or Circumstances? A Synthetic Control Method for Evaluating Brazil’s Economic Boom Under Lula
This study empirically examines whether Brazil’s remarkable economic growth from 2003 to 2010 was primarily driven by Lula’s policies or favorable global economic conditions using the Synthetic Control Method—a robust causal inference technique for assessing policy effects when randomized controlled...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2025-07-01
|
| Series: | Economies |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7099/13/7/197 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1849733847061626880 |
|---|---|
| author | Jaeho Jung Kisu Kwon |
| author_facet | Jaeho Jung Kisu Kwon |
| author_sort | Jaeho Jung |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study empirically examines whether Brazil’s remarkable economic growth from 2003 to 2010 was primarily driven by Lula’s policies or favorable global economic conditions using the Synthetic Control Method—a robust causal inference technique for assessing policy effects when randomized controlled trials are infeasible and only one treated unit exists. Our analysis suggests that Brazil’s economic performance was largely attributable to external circumstances, while the policies of Lula’s administration may not have significantly enhanced growth. This study demonstrates the robustness of the results through leave-one-out distribution, the ratio of postintervention-period root mean square prediction error (RMSPE) to preintervention-period RMSPE, and in-space placebo tests. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-895f44ff93de4e0bbfa3288184e227cf |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2227-7099 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-07-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Economies |
| spelling | doaj-art-895f44ff93de4e0bbfa3288184e227cf2025-08-20T03:07:57ZengMDPI AGEconomies2227-70992025-07-0113719710.3390/economies13070197Policy or Circumstances? A Synthetic Control Method for Evaluating Brazil’s Economic Boom Under LulaJaeho Jung0Kisu Kwon1Economic Research Department, Korea Enterprises Federation, Seoul 04110, Republic of KoreaDepartment of Portuguese, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, Seoul 02450, Republic of KoreaThis study empirically examines whether Brazil’s remarkable economic growth from 2003 to 2010 was primarily driven by Lula’s policies or favorable global economic conditions using the Synthetic Control Method—a robust causal inference technique for assessing policy effects when randomized controlled trials are infeasible and only one treated unit exists. Our analysis suggests that Brazil’s economic performance was largely attributable to external circumstances, while the policies of Lula’s administration may not have significantly enhanced growth. This study demonstrates the robustness of the results through leave-one-out distribution, the ratio of postintervention-period root mean square prediction error (RMSPE) to preintervention-period RMSPE, and in-space placebo tests.https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7099/13/7/197counterfactual analysispolicy evaluationLatin Americagrowth determinant |
| spellingShingle | Jaeho Jung Kisu Kwon Policy or Circumstances? A Synthetic Control Method for Evaluating Brazil’s Economic Boom Under Lula Economies counterfactual analysis policy evaluation Latin America growth determinant |
| title | Policy or Circumstances? A Synthetic Control Method for Evaluating Brazil’s Economic Boom Under Lula |
| title_full | Policy or Circumstances? A Synthetic Control Method for Evaluating Brazil’s Economic Boom Under Lula |
| title_fullStr | Policy or Circumstances? A Synthetic Control Method for Evaluating Brazil’s Economic Boom Under Lula |
| title_full_unstemmed | Policy or Circumstances? A Synthetic Control Method for Evaluating Brazil’s Economic Boom Under Lula |
| title_short | Policy or Circumstances? A Synthetic Control Method for Evaluating Brazil’s Economic Boom Under Lula |
| title_sort | policy or circumstances a synthetic control method for evaluating brazil s economic boom under lula |
| topic | counterfactual analysis policy evaluation Latin America growth determinant |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7099/13/7/197 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT jaehojung policyorcircumstancesasyntheticcontrolmethodforevaluatingbrazilseconomicboomunderlula AT kisukwon policyorcircumstancesasyntheticcontrolmethodforevaluatingbrazilseconomicboomunderlula |