Analysis and predictive validity of Kelantan River flow using RQA and time series analysis

An analysis of the Kelantan River flow and its predictive validity has been under taken for the period 2000 to 2014 by utilizing Recurrence Plot and Recurrence Quantification Analysis. The study presents the results of the application of nonlinear and linear time series analysis on the river stream...

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Main Authors: Abdul Majid Mohammed, M. Hafidz Omar, M. S. M. Noorani
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Elsevier 2020-12-01
Series:Kuwait Journal of Science
Subjects:
Online Access:https://journalskuwait.org/kjs/index.php/KJS/article/view/8899
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author Abdul Majid Mohammed
M. Hafidz Omar
M. S. M. Noorani
author_facet Abdul Majid Mohammed
M. Hafidz Omar
M. S. M. Noorani
author_sort Abdul Majid Mohammed
collection DOAJ
description An analysis of the Kelantan River flow and its predictive validity has been under taken for the period 2000 to 2014 by utilizing Recurrence Plot and Recurrence Quantification Analysis. The study presents the results of the application of nonlinear and linear time series analysis on the river stream-flow data for flood detection and prediction of future values. The prediction results on a hold-out sample of 2014 data by the methods based on RQA and ARIMA have been compared and it was revealed that the ARIMA model provided a better forecast. The analysis of the dynamics of the daily river flow and the detection of an attractor with outliers indicating higher values of the series are believed to be two important factors of an onset of a sudden change.
format Article
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issn 2307-4108
2307-4116
language English
publishDate 2020-12-01
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record_format Article
series Kuwait Journal of Science
spelling doaj-art-89063cc055744bca8e67f1d7528079572025-08-20T02:30:28ZengElsevierKuwait Journal of Science2307-41082307-41162020-12-0148110.48129/kjs.v48i1.8899Analysis and predictive validity of Kelantan River flow using RQA and time series analysisAbdul Majid Mohammed0M. Hafidz Omar1M. S. M. Noorani2School of Mathematical Sciences, FST, UKM, MalaysiaDept. of Mathematics & Statistics, KFUPM, Dhahran, Saudi ArabiaSchool of Mathematical Sciences, FST, UKM, Malaysia An analysis of the Kelantan River flow and its predictive validity has been under taken for the period 2000 to 2014 by utilizing Recurrence Plot and Recurrence Quantification Analysis. The study presents the results of the application of nonlinear and linear time series analysis on the river stream-flow data for flood detection and prediction of future values. The prediction results on a hold-out sample of 2014 data by the methods based on RQA and ARIMA have been compared and it was revealed that the ARIMA model provided a better forecast. The analysis of the dynamics of the daily river flow and the detection of an attractor with outliers indicating higher values of the series are believed to be two important factors of an onset of a sudden change. https://journalskuwait.org/kjs/index.php/KJS/article/view/8899Recurrence PlotsRecurrence Quantification Analysis (RQA)Kelantan River flow DataARIMAflood forecasting
spellingShingle Abdul Majid Mohammed
M. Hafidz Omar
M. S. M. Noorani
Analysis and predictive validity of Kelantan River flow using RQA and time series analysis
Kuwait Journal of Science
Recurrence Plots
Recurrence Quantification Analysis (RQA)
Kelantan River flow Data
ARIMA
flood forecasting
title Analysis and predictive validity of Kelantan River flow using RQA and time series analysis
title_full Analysis and predictive validity of Kelantan River flow using RQA and time series analysis
title_fullStr Analysis and predictive validity of Kelantan River flow using RQA and time series analysis
title_full_unstemmed Analysis and predictive validity of Kelantan River flow using RQA and time series analysis
title_short Analysis and predictive validity of Kelantan River flow using RQA and time series analysis
title_sort analysis and predictive validity of kelantan river flow using rqa and time series analysis
topic Recurrence Plots
Recurrence Quantification Analysis (RQA)
Kelantan River flow Data
ARIMA
flood forecasting
url https://journalskuwait.org/kjs/index.php/KJS/article/view/8899
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