Analysis and predictive validity of Kelantan River flow using RQA and time series analysis
An analysis of the Kelantan River flow and its predictive validity has been under taken for the period 2000 to 2014 by utilizing Recurrence Plot and Recurrence Quantification Analysis. The study presents the results of the application of nonlinear and linear time series analysis on the river stream...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2020-12-01
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| Series: | Kuwait Journal of Science |
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| Online Access: | https://journalskuwait.org/kjs/index.php/KJS/article/view/8899 |
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| _version_ | 1850138884213571584 |
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| author | Abdul Majid Mohammed M. Hafidz Omar M. S. M. Noorani |
| author_facet | Abdul Majid Mohammed M. Hafidz Omar M. S. M. Noorani |
| author_sort | Abdul Majid Mohammed |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description |
An analysis of the Kelantan River flow and its predictive validity has been under taken for the period 2000 to 2014 by utilizing Recurrence Plot and Recurrence Quantification Analysis. The study presents the results of the application of nonlinear and linear time series analysis on the river stream-flow data for flood detection and prediction of future values. The prediction results on a hold-out sample of 2014 data by the methods based on RQA and ARIMA have been compared and it was revealed that the ARIMA model provided a better forecast. The analysis of the dynamics of the daily river flow and the detection of an attractor with outliers indicating higher values of the series are believed to be two important factors of an onset of a sudden change.
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| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-89063cc055744bca8e67f1d752807957 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2307-4108 2307-4116 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2020-12-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Kuwait Journal of Science |
| spelling | doaj-art-89063cc055744bca8e67f1d7528079572025-08-20T02:30:28ZengElsevierKuwait Journal of Science2307-41082307-41162020-12-0148110.48129/kjs.v48i1.8899Analysis and predictive validity of Kelantan River flow using RQA and time series analysisAbdul Majid Mohammed0M. Hafidz Omar1M. S. M. Noorani2School of Mathematical Sciences, FST, UKM, MalaysiaDept. of Mathematics & Statistics, KFUPM, Dhahran, Saudi ArabiaSchool of Mathematical Sciences, FST, UKM, Malaysia An analysis of the Kelantan River flow and its predictive validity has been under taken for the period 2000 to 2014 by utilizing Recurrence Plot and Recurrence Quantification Analysis. The study presents the results of the application of nonlinear and linear time series analysis on the river stream-flow data for flood detection and prediction of future values. The prediction results on a hold-out sample of 2014 data by the methods based on RQA and ARIMA have been compared and it was revealed that the ARIMA model provided a better forecast. The analysis of the dynamics of the daily river flow and the detection of an attractor with outliers indicating higher values of the series are believed to be two important factors of an onset of a sudden change. https://journalskuwait.org/kjs/index.php/KJS/article/view/8899Recurrence PlotsRecurrence Quantification Analysis (RQA)Kelantan River flow DataARIMAflood forecasting |
| spellingShingle | Abdul Majid Mohammed M. Hafidz Omar M. S. M. Noorani Analysis and predictive validity of Kelantan River flow using RQA and time series analysis Kuwait Journal of Science Recurrence Plots Recurrence Quantification Analysis (RQA) Kelantan River flow Data ARIMA flood forecasting |
| title | Analysis and predictive validity of Kelantan River flow using RQA and time series analysis |
| title_full | Analysis and predictive validity of Kelantan River flow using RQA and time series analysis |
| title_fullStr | Analysis and predictive validity of Kelantan River flow using RQA and time series analysis |
| title_full_unstemmed | Analysis and predictive validity of Kelantan River flow using RQA and time series analysis |
| title_short | Analysis and predictive validity of Kelantan River flow using RQA and time series analysis |
| title_sort | analysis and predictive validity of kelantan river flow using rqa and time series analysis |
| topic | Recurrence Plots Recurrence Quantification Analysis (RQA) Kelantan River flow Data ARIMA flood forecasting |
| url | https://journalskuwait.org/kjs/index.php/KJS/article/view/8899 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT abdulmajidmohammed analysisandpredictivevalidityofkelantanriverflowusingrqaandtimeseriesanalysis AT mhafidzomar analysisandpredictivevalidityofkelantanriverflowusingrqaandtimeseriesanalysis AT msmnoorani analysisandpredictivevalidityofkelantanriverflowusingrqaandtimeseriesanalysis |