Climate change aggravated wildfire behaviour in the Iberian Peninsula in recent years
Abstract Climate change is considered to affect wildfire spread both by increasing fuel dryness and by altering vegetation mass and structure. However, the direct effect of global warming on wildfires is hard to quantify due to the multiple non-climatic factors involved in their ignition and spread....
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2025-01-01
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| Series: | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00906-3 |
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| author | Martín Senande-Rivera Damián Insua-Costa Gonzalo Miguez-Macho |
| author_facet | Martín Senande-Rivera Damián Insua-Costa Gonzalo Miguez-Macho |
| author_sort | Martín Senande-Rivera |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Climate change is considered to affect wildfire spread both by increasing fuel dryness and by altering vegetation mass and structure. However, the direct effect of global warming on wildfires is hard to quantify due to the multiple non-climatic factors involved in their ignition and spread. By combining wildfire observations with the latest generation of climate models, here we show that more than half of the large wildfires (area>500 ha) occurring in the Iberian Peninsula between 2001 and 2021 present a significant increase in the rate of spread with respect to what it would have been in the pre-industrial period, attributable to global warming. The average acceleration of the rate of spread due to increased fuel dryness is between 2.0% and 8.3%, whereas the influence of enhanced vegetation growth since the pre-industrial period could potentially be even higher than the direct impact of temperature increase in fuel conditions. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-88c69e2075c54f21aa7935fefda3ab4d |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2397-3722 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| spelling | doaj-art-88c69e2075c54f21aa7935fefda3ab4d2025-01-19T12:16:11ZengNature Portfolionpj Climate and Atmospheric Science2397-37222025-01-018111010.1038/s41612-025-00906-3Climate change aggravated wildfire behaviour in the Iberian Peninsula in recent yearsMartín Senande-Rivera0Damián Insua-Costa1Gonzalo Miguez-Macho2CRETUS, Non-Linear Physics Group, Universidade de Santiago de CompostelaHydro-Climate Extremes Lab, Ghent UniversityCRETUS, Non-Linear Physics Group, Universidade de Santiago de CompostelaAbstract Climate change is considered to affect wildfire spread both by increasing fuel dryness and by altering vegetation mass and structure. However, the direct effect of global warming on wildfires is hard to quantify due to the multiple non-climatic factors involved in their ignition and spread. By combining wildfire observations with the latest generation of climate models, here we show that more than half of the large wildfires (area>500 ha) occurring in the Iberian Peninsula between 2001 and 2021 present a significant increase in the rate of spread with respect to what it would have been in the pre-industrial period, attributable to global warming. The average acceleration of the rate of spread due to increased fuel dryness is between 2.0% and 8.3%, whereas the influence of enhanced vegetation growth since the pre-industrial period could potentially be even higher than the direct impact of temperature increase in fuel conditions.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00906-3 |
| spellingShingle | Martín Senande-Rivera Damián Insua-Costa Gonzalo Miguez-Macho Climate change aggravated wildfire behaviour in the Iberian Peninsula in recent years npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| title | Climate change aggravated wildfire behaviour in the Iberian Peninsula in recent years |
| title_full | Climate change aggravated wildfire behaviour in the Iberian Peninsula in recent years |
| title_fullStr | Climate change aggravated wildfire behaviour in the Iberian Peninsula in recent years |
| title_full_unstemmed | Climate change aggravated wildfire behaviour in the Iberian Peninsula in recent years |
| title_short | Climate change aggravated wildfire behaviour in the Iberian Peninsula in recent years |
| title_sort | climate change aggravated wildfire behaviour in the iberian peninsula in recent years |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00906-3 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT martinsenanderivera climatechangeaggravatedwildfirebehaviourintheiberianpeninsulainrecentyears AT damianinsuacosta climatechangeaggravatedwildfirebehaviourintheiberianpeninsulainrecentyears AT gonzalomiguezmacho climatechangeaggravatedwildfirebehaviourintheiberianpeninsulainrecentyears |