COMPARISON OF ARIMA AND GARMA'S PERFORMANCE ON DATA ON POSITIVE COVID-19 CASES IN INDONESIA

The development of methods in statistics, one of which is used for prediction, is overgrowing. So it requires further analysis related to the goodness of the method. One of the comparisons made to the goodness of this model can be seen by applying it to actual cases around us. The real case still be...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: A'yunin Sofro, Khusnia Nurul Khikmah
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Universitas Pattimura 2022-09-01
Series:Barekeng
Subjects:
Online Access:https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/article/view/6081
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:The development of methods in statistics, one of which is used for prediction, is overgrowing. So it requires further analysis related to the goodness of the method. One of the comparisons made to the goodness of this model can be seen by applying it to actual cases around us. The real case still being faced by people worldwide, including in Indonesia, is Covid-19. Therefore, research comparing the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and the Gegenbauer autoregressive moving average (GARMA) method in positive confirmed cases of Covid-19 in Indonesia is essential. Based on the results of this research analysis, it was found that the best model with the Aikake's Information Criterion measure of goodness that was used to predict positive confirmed cases of Covid-19 in Indonesia was the Gegenbauer autoregressive moving average (GARMA) model.
ISSN:1978-7227
2615-3017