Indices to Identify Historical and Future Periods of Drought for the Maize Crop (<i>Zea mays</i> L.) in Central Mexico
Agricultural drought is a condition that threatens natural ecosystems, water security, and food security. The timely identification of an agricultural drought event is essential to mitigating its effects. However, achieving a reliable and accurate assessment is challenging due to the interannual var...
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2025-02-01
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| author | Alejandro Cruz-González Ramón Arteaga-Ramírez Ignacio Sánchez-Cohen Alejandro Ismael Monterroso-Rivas Jesús Soria-Ruiz |
| author_facet | Alejandro Cruz-González Ramón Arteaga-Ramírez Ignacio Sánchez-Cohen Alejandro Ismael Monterroso-Rivas Jesús Soria-Ruiz |
| author_sort | Alejandro Cruz-González |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Agricultural drought is a condition that threatens natural ecosystems, water security, and food security. The timely identification of an agricultural drought event is essential to mitigating its effects. However, achieving a reliable and accurate assessment is challenging due to the interannual variability of precipitation in a region. Therefore, the objective of this study was to identify the months with drought during the agricultural cycle of the maize crop (<i>Zea mays</i> L.) in the Atlacomulco Rural Development District (ARDD) as a study area using the SPI and SPEI indices and their impact on each phenological stage. The results show that when analyzing the historical period (1985–2017), the ARDD is a region prone to agricultural droughts with a duration of one month. The stages of grain filling and ripening were the most vulnerable, since SPI and SPEI-1 quantify that 25% and 31% of the total months with drought occur during those stages, respectively. Towards the 2041–2080 horizon, the MCG ACCESS-ESM1-5 with the SSP2-4.5 scenario identified an occurrence of dry periods with 17% and 20% by SPI and SPEI, respectively, while for SSP5-8.5, 17% and 22% of the total number of periods corresponded to dry months with SPI and SPEI, respectively. Greater recurrence will be observed in the future, specifically after the year 2061, meaning an increase in the frequency of agricultural drought events in the region, causing difficult and erratic productive conditions for each agricultural cycle and threatening sustainable development. Therefore, it is necessary to take action to mitigate the effects of climate change in this sector. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-8833a47cda2249a88e124dd29e763735 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2073-4395 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-02-01 |
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| record_format | Article |
| series | Agronomy |
| spelling | doaj-art-8833a47cda2249a88e124dd29e7637352025-08-20T02:44:55ZengMDPI AGAgronomy2073-43952025-02-0115246010.3390/agronomy15020460Indices to Identify Historical and Future Periods of Drought for the Maize Crop (<i>Zea mays</i> L.) in Central MexicoAlejandro Cruz-González0Ramón Arteaga-Ramírez1Ignacio Sánchez-Cohen2Alejandro Ismael Monterroso-Rivas3Jesús Soria-Ruiz4Posgrado en Ingeniería Agrícola y Uso Integral del Agua, Universidad Autónoma Chapingo, Texcoco 56230, Estado de México, MexicoDepartamento de Irrigación, Universidad Autónoma Chapingo, Texcoco 56230, Estado de México, MexicoInstituto Nacional de Investigaciones Forestales, Agrícolas y Pecuarias—Centro Nacional de Investigación Disciplinaria en Relación Agua-Suelo-Planta-Atmósfera, Gómez Palacio 35140, Durango, MexicoDepartamento de Suelos, Universidad Autónoma Chapingo, Texcoco 56230, Estado de México, MexicoSitio Experimental Metepec—Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Forestales, Agrícolas y Pecuarias, Zinacantepec 52176, Estado de México, MexicoAgricultural drought is a condition that threatens natural ecosystems, water security, and food security. The timely identification of an agricultural drought event is essential to mitigating its effects. However, achieving a reliable and accurate assessment is challenging due to the interannual variability of precipitation in a region. Therefore, the objective of this study was to identify the months with drought during the agricultural cycle of the maize crop (<i>Zea mays</i> L.) in the Atlacomulco Rural Development District (ARDD) as a study area using the SPI and SPEI indices and their impact on each phenological stage. The results show that when analyzing the historical period (1985–2017), the ARDD is a region prone to agricultural droughts with a duration of one month. The stages of grain filling and ripening were the most vulnerable, since SPI and SPEI-1 quantify that 25% and 31% of the total months with drought occur during those stages, respectively. Towards the 2041–2080 horizon, the MCG ACCESS-ESM1-5 with the SSP2-4.5 scenario identified an occurrence of dry periods with 17% and 20% by SPI and SPEI, respectively, while for SSP5-8.5, 17% and 22% of the total number of periods corresponded to dry months with SPI and SPEI, respectively. Greater recurrence will be observed in the future, specifically after the year 2061, meaning an increase in the frequency of agricultural drought events in the region, causing difficult and erratic productive conditions for each agricultural cycle and threatening sustainable development. Therefore, it is necessary to take action to mitigate the effects of climate change in this sector.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4395/15/2/460SPI indexSPEI indexclimate changeagricultural drought |
| spellingShingle | Alejandro Cruz-González Ramón Arteaga-Ramírez Ignacio Sánchez-Cohen Alejandro Ismael Monterroso-Rivas Jesús Soria-Ruiz Indices to Identify Historical and Future Periods of Drought for the Maize Crop (<i>Zea mays</i> L.) in Central Mexico Agronomy SPI index SPEI index climate change agricultural drought |
| title | Indices to Identify Historical and Future Periods of Drought for the Maize Crop (<i>Zea mays</i> L.) in Central Mexico |
| title_full | Indices to Identify Historical and Future Periods of Drought for the Maize Crop (<i>Zea mays</i> L.) in Central Mexico |
| title_fullStr | Indices to Identify Historical and Future Periods of Drought for the Maize Crop (<i>Zea mays</i> L.) in Central Mexico |
| title_full_unstemmed | Indices to Identify Historical and Future Periods of Drought for the Maize Crop (<i>Zea mays</i> L.) in Central Mexico |
| title_short | Indices to Identify Historical and Future Periods of Drought for the Maize Crop (<i>Zea mays</i> L.) in Central Mexico |
| title_sort | indices to identify historical and future periods of drought for the maize crop i zea mays i l in central mexico |
| topic | SPI index SPEI index climate change agricultural drought |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4395/15/2/460 |
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