The causal effect of divorce and income inequality on crime: Evidence from Azerbaijan

Type of the article: Research Article AbstractCrime remains a significant socio-economic issue, shaped by social instability and economic inequality, and poses critical challenges for public administration and policymaking. In Azerbaijan, rising divorce rates and persistent income disparities have...

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Main Authors: Mayis Gulaliyev, Shahla Huseynova, Gunay Hasanova, Reyhan Azizova, Elmira Gojaeva
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: LLC "CPC "Business Perspectives" 2025-08-01
Series:Problems and Perspectives in Management
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Online Access:https://www.businessperspectives.org/images/pdf/applications/publishing/templates/article/assets/22696/PPM_2025_03_Gulaliyev.pdf
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author Mayis Gulaliyev
Shahla Huseynova
Gunay Hasanova
Reyhan Azizova
Elmira Gojaeva
author_facet Mayis Gulaliyev
Shahla Huseynova
Gunay Hasanova
Reyhan Azizova
Elmira Gojaeva
author_sort Mayis Gulaliyev
collection DOAJ
description Type of the article: Research Article AbstractCrime remains a significant socio-economic issue, shaped by social instability and economic inequality, and poses critical challenges for public administration and policymaking. In Azerbaijan, rising divorce rates and persistent income disparities have become prominent social concerns, with the former reflecting shifts in family structure and the latter captured by the Gini index as a measure of income inequality. This study explores the causal relationships between crime, income inequality, and divorce rates in Azerbaijan from 2000 to 2021, utilizing econometric methodologies. From a public administration perspective, the study provides empirical insights to support more effective and targeted interventions in crime prevention, social protection, and family policy. Methodologically, the Johansen cointegration test is applied to identify long-term equilibrium relationships among the variables, while the Toda-Yamamoto Granger causality test is employed to examine the directional causality. The cointegration analysis reveals stable long-term associations between crime, income inequality, and divorce, with trace statistics (32.172, 16.067, and 4.052) exceeding their respective critical values at the 5% significance level. Additionally, the Toda-Yamamoto test shows that income inequality significantly influences crime (χ² = 5.145, p = 0.023), with divorce exhibiting a stronger predictive relationship with crime (χ² = 7.071, p = 0.007). These findings underscore the necessity for integrated crime prevention strategies, emphasizing the role of public administration in designing and implementing coherent socio-economic policies.
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spelling doaj-art-86fe4b6b908842bca941ed2cc6642bf62025-08-20T03:36:14ZengLLC "CPC "Business Perspectives"Problems and Perspectives in Management1727-70511810-54672025-08-0123324525510.21511/ppm.23(3).2025.1822696The causal effect of divorce and income inequality on crime: Evidence from AzerbaijanMayis Gulaliyev0https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7614-7322Shahla Huseynova1https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8856-3814Gunay Hasanova2https://orcid.org/0009-0003-9738-8821Reyhan Azizova3https://orcid.org/0009-0006-3243-1122Elmira Gojaeva4https://orcid.org/0009-0008-1064-3209Dr., Prof., Department of Economics, Ganja State University, Azerbaijan; “World Trade Organization” in Azerbaijan State University of Economics (UNEC), Azerbaijan; Department of Management, Azerbaijan Technological University, AzerbaijanAssociate Professor, Department of Applied Economics, Azerbaijan State University of Economics (UNEC), AzerbaijanMaster, Lecturer, Department of Foreign Languages, Faculty of Economics and Management, Azerbaijan Technological University, AzerbaijanPh.D., Department of Digital Technologies and Applied Informatics, Azerbaijan State University of Economics (UNEC), AzerbaijanAssociate Professor, Department of Applied Economics, Azerbaijan State University of Economics (UNEC), AzerbaijanType of the article: Research Article AbstractCrime remains a significant socio-economic issue, shaped by social instability and economic inequality, and poses critical challenges for public administration and policymaking. In Azerbaijan, rising divorce rates and persistent income disparities have become prominent social concerns, with the former reflecting shifts in family structure and the latter captured by the Gini index as a measure of income inequality. This study explores the causal relationships between crime, income inequality, and divorce rates in Azerbaijan from 2000 to 2021, utilizing econometric methodologies. From a public administration perspective, the study provides empirical insights to support more effective and targeted interventions in crime prevention, social protection, and family policy. Methodologically, the Johansen cointegration test is applied to identify long-term equilibrium relationships among the variables, while the Toda-Yamamoto Granger causality test is employed to examine the directional causality. The cointegration analysis reveals stable long-term associations between crime, income inequality, and divorce, with trace statistics (32.172, 16.067, and 4.052) exceeding their respective critical values at the 5% significance level. Additionally, the Toda-Yamamoto test shows that income inequality significantly influences crime (χ² = 5.145, p = 0.023), with divorce exhibiting a stronger predictive relationship with crime (χ² = 7.071, p = 0.007). These findings underscore the necessity for integrated crime prevention strategies, emphasizing the role of public administration in designing and implementing coherent socio-economic policies.https://www.businessperspectives.org/images/pdf/applications/publishing/templates/article/assets/22696/PPM_2025_03_Gulaliyev.pdfAzerbaijancrimedivorceeconometricsGini indexincome inequality
spellingShingle Mayis Gulaliyev
Shahla Huseynova
Gunay Hasanova
Reyhan Azizova
Elmira Gojaeva
The causal effect of divorce and income inequality on crime: Evidence from Azerbaijan
Problems and Perspectives in Management
Azerbaijan
crime
divorce
econometrics
Gini index
income inequality
title The causal effect of divorce and income inequality on crime: Evidence from Azerbaijan
title_full The causal effect of divorce and income inequality on crime: Evidence from Azerbaijan
title_fullStr The causal effect of divorce and income inequality on crime: Evidence from Azerbaijan
title_full_unstemmed The causal effect of divorce and income inequality on crime: Evidence from Azerbaijan
title_short The causal effect of divorce and income inequality on crime: Evidence from Azerbaijan
title_sort causal effect of divorce and income inequality on crime evidence from azerbaijan
topic Azerbaijan
crime
divorce
econometrics
Gini index
income inequality
url https://www.businessperspectives.org/images/pdf/applications/publishing/templates/article/assets/22696/PPM_2025_03_Gulaliyev.pdf
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