The Ocean System Pathways (OSPs): A New Scenario and Simulation Framework to Investigate the Future of the World Fisheries
Abstract The Fisheries and Marine Ecosystems Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP) has dedicated a decade to unraveling the future impacts of climate change on marine animal biomass. FishMIP is now preparing a new simulation protocol to assess the combined effects of both climate and socio‐economi...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2025-03-01
|
| Series: | Earth's Future |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004851 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1850185575459454976 |
|---|---|
| author | O. Maury D. P. Tittensor T. D. Eddy E. H. Allison T. Bahri N. Barrier L. Campling W. W. L. Cheung K. Frieler E. A. Fulton P. Guillotreau R. F. Heneghan V. W. Y. Lam D. Leclère M. Lengaigne H. Lotze‐Campen C. Novaglio K. Ortega‐Cisneros J. Rault J. Schewe Y.‐J. Shin H. Sloterdijk D. Squires U. R. Sumaila A. N. Tidd B. vanRuijven J. Blanchard |
| author_facet | O. Maury D. P. Tittensor T. D. Eddy E. H. Allison T. Bahri N. Barrier L. Campling W. W. L. Cheung K. Frieler E. A. Fulton P. Guillotreau R. F. Heneghan V. W. Y. Lam D. Leclère M. Lengaigne H. Lotze‐Campen C. Novaglio K. Ortega‐Cisneros J. Rault J. Schewe Y.‐J. Shin H. Sloterdijk D. Squires U. R. Sumaila A. N. Tidd B. vanRuijven J. Blanchard |
| author_sort | O. Maury |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The Fisheries and Marine Ecosystems Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP) has dedicated a decade to unraveling the future impacts of climate change on marine animal biomass. FishMIP is now preparing a new simulation protocol to assess the combined effects of both climate and socio‐economic changes on marine fisheries and ecosystems. This protocol will be based on the Ocean System Pathways (OSPs), a new set of socio‐economic scenarios derived from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) widely used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The OSPs extend the SSPs to the economic, governance, management and socio‐cultural contexts of large pelagic, small pelagic, benthic‐demersal and emerging fisheries, as well as mariculture. Comprising qualitative storylines, quantitative model driver pathways and a “plug‐in‐model” framework, the OSPs will enable a heterogeneous suite of ecosystem models to simulate fisheries dynamics in a standardised way. This paper introduces this OSP framework and the simulation protocol that FishMIP will implement to explore future ocean social‐ecological systems holistically, with a focus on critical issues such as climate justice, global food security, equitable fisheries, aquaculture development, fisheries management, and biodiversity conservation. Ultimately, the OSP framework is tailored to contribute to the synthesis work of the IPCC. It also aims to inform ongoing policy processes within the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). Finally, it seeks to support the synthesis work of the Intergovernmental Science‐Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), with a particular focus on studying pathways relevant for the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-86f0b7ec796d4a82b81e46999ff89fb2 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2328-4277 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-03-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Earth's Future |
| spelling | doaj-art-86f0b7ec796d4a82b81e46999ff89fb22025-08-20T02:16:40ZengWileyEarth's Future2328-42772025-03-01133n/an/a10.1029/2024EF004851The Ocean System Pathways (OSPs): A New Scenario and Simulation Framework to Investigate the Future of the World FisheriesO. Maury0D. P. Tittensor1T. D. Eddy2E. H. Allison3T. Bahri4N. Barrier5L. Campling6W. W. L. Cheung7K. Frieler8E. A. Fulton9P. Guillotreau10R. F. Heneghan11V. W. Y. Lam12D. Leclère13M. Lengaigne14H. Lotze‐Campen15C. Novaglio16K. Ortega‐Cisneros17J. Rault18J. Schewe19Y.‐J. Shin20H. Sloterdijk21D. Squires22U. R. Sumaila23A. N. Tidd24B. vanRuijven25J. Blanchard26MARBEC, University Montpellier, IRD, CNRS, Ifremer, INRAE Sète FranceDepartment of Biology Dalhousie University Halifax NS CanadaCentre for Fisheries Ecosystems Research Fisheries & Marine Institute Memorial University St. John's NL CanadaWorldFish, Bayan Lepas Penang MalaysiaFood and Agriculture Organization Rome ItalyMARBEC, University Montpellier, IRD, CNRS, Ifremer, INRAE Sète FranceSchool of Business and Management Queen Mary University of London London UKInstitute for the Oceans and Fisheries The University of British Columbia Vancouver BC CanadaPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) Member of the Leibniz Association Potsdam GermanyCSIRO Environment Hobart TAS AustraliaMARBEC, University Montpellier, IRD, CNRS, Ifremer, INRAE Sète FranceSchool of Science Technology and Engineering University of the Sunshine Coast Petrie QLD AustraliaInstitute for the Oceans and Fisheries The University of British Columbia Vancouver BC CanadaInternational Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA) Laxenburg AustriaMARBEC, University Montpellier, IRD, CNRS, Ifremer, INRAE Sète FrancePotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) Member of the Leibniz Association Potsdam GermanyFood and Agriculture Organization Rome ItalyDepartment of Biological Sciences University of Cape Town Cape Town South AfricaIFREMER Centre de Bretagne Plouzané FrancePotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) Member of the Leibniz Association Potsdam GermanyMARBEC, University Montpellier, IRD, CNRS, Ifremer, INRAE Sète FranceChristian‐Albrechts‐University Kiel Center for Ocean and Society Kiel GermanyUniversity of California San Diego San Diego CA USAInstitute for the Oceans and Fisheries The University of British Columbia Vancouver BC CanadaMARBEC, University Montpellier, IRD, CNRS, Ifremer, INRAE Sète FranceInternational Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA) Laxenburg AustriaInstitute for Marine and Antarctic Studies University of Tasmania Hobart TAS AustraliaAbstract The Fisheries and Marine Ecosystems Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP) has dedicated a decade to unraveling the future impacts of climate change on marine animal biomass. FishMIP is now preparing a new simulation protocol to assess the combined effects of both climate and socio‐economic changes on marine fisheries and ecosystems. This protocol will be based on the Ocean System Pathways (OSPs), a new set of socio‐economic scenarios derived from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) widely used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The OSPs extend the SSPs to the economic, governance, management and socio‐cultural contexts of large pelagic, small pelagic, benthic‐demersal and emerging fisheries, as well as mariculture. Comprising qualitative storylines, quantitative model driver pathways and a “plug‐in‐model” framework, the OSPs will enable a heterogeneous suite of ecosystem models to simulate fisheries dynamics in a standardised way. This paper introduces this OSP framework and the simulation protocol that FishMIP will implement to explore future ocean social‐ecological systems holistically, with a focus on critical issues such as climate justice, global food security, equitable fisheries, aquaculture development, fisheries management, and biodiversity conservation. Ultimately, the OSP framework is tailored to contribute to the synthesis work of the IPCC. It also aims to inform ongoing policy processes within the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). Finally, it seeks to support the synthesis work of the Intergovernmental Science‐Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), with a particular focus on studying pathways relevant for the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity.https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004851climate change impactmarine ecosystemsmarine fisheriesFishMIPscenariosSSP |
| spellingShingle | O. Maury D. P. Tittensor T. D. Eddy E. H. Allison T. Bahri N. Barrier L. Campling W. W. L. Cheung K. Frieler E. A. Fulton P. Guillotreau R. F. Heneghan V. W. Y. Lam D. Leclère M. Lengaigne H. Lotze‐Campen C. Novaglio K. Ortega‐Cisneros J. Rault J. Schewe Y.‐J. Shin H. Sloterdijk D. Squires U. R. Sumaila A. N. Tidd B. vanRuijven J. Blanchard The Ocean System Pathways (OSPs): A New Scenario and Simulation Framework to Investigate the Future of the World Fisheries Earth's Future climate change impact marine ecosystems marine fisheries FishMIP scenarios SSP |
| title | The Ocean System Pathways (OSPs): A New Scenario and Simulation Framework to Investigate the Future of the World Fisheries |
| title_full | The Ocean System Pathways (OSPs): A New Scenario and Simulation Framework to Investigate the Future of the World Fisheries |
| title_fullStr | The Ocean System Pathways (OSPs): A New Scenario and Simulation Framework to Investigate the Future of the World Fisheries |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Ocean System Pathways (OSPs): A New Scenario and Simulation Framework to Investigate the Future of the World Fisheries |
| title_short | The Ocean System Pathways (OSPs): A New Scenario and Simulation Framework to Investigate the Future of the World Fisheries |
| title_sort | ocean system pathways osps a new scenario and simulation framework to investigate the future of the world fisheries |
| topic | climate change impact marine ecosystems marine fisheries FishMIP scenarios SSP |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004851 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT omaury theoceansystempathwaysospsanewscenarioandsimulationframeworktoinvestigatethefutureoftheworldfisheries AT dptittensor theoceansystempathwaysospsanewscenarioandsimulationframeworktoinvestigatethefutureoftheworldfisheries AT tdeddy theoceansystempathwaysospsanewscenarioandsimulationframeworktoinvestigatethefutureoftheworldfisheries AT ehallison theoceansystempathwaysospsanewscenarioandsimulationframeworktoinvestigatethefutureoftheworldfisheries AT tbahri theoceansystempathwaysospsanewscenarioandsimulationframeworktoinvestigatethefutureoftheworldfisheries AT nbarrier theoceansystempathwaysospsanewscenarioandsimulationframeworktoinvestigatethefutureoftheworldfisheries AT lcampling theoceansystempathwaysospsanewscenarioandsimulationframeworktoinvestigatethefutureoftheworldfisheries AT wwlcheung theoceansystempathwaysospsanewscenarioandsimulationframeworktoinvestigatethefutureoftheworldfisheries AT kfrieler theoceansystempathwaysospsanewscenarioandsimulationframeworktoinvestigatethefutureoftheworldfisheries AT eafulton theoceansystempathwaysospsanewscenarioandsimulationframeworktoinvestigatethefutureoftheworldfisheries AT pguillotreau theoceansystempathwaysospsanewscenarioandsimulationframeworktoinvestigatethefutureoftheworldfisheries AT rfheneghan theoceansystempathwaysospsanewscenarioandsimulationframeworktoinvestigatethefutureoftheworldfisheries AT vwylam theoceansystempathwaysospsanewscenarioandsimulationframeworktoinvestigatethefutureoftheworldfisheries AT dleclere theoceansystempathwaysospsanewscenarioandsimulationframeworktoinvestigatethefutureoftheworldfisheries AT mlengaigne theoceansystempathwaysospsanewscenarioandsimulationframeworktoinvestigatethefutureoftheworldfisheries AT hlotzecampen theoceansystempathwaysospsanewscenarioandsimulationframeworktoinvestigatethefutureoftheworldfisheries AT cnovaglio theoceansystempathwaysospsanewscenarioandsimulationframeworktoinvestigatethefutureoftheworldfisheries AT kortegacisneros theoceansystempathwaysospsanewscenarioandsimulationframeworktoinvestigatethefutureoftheworldfisheries AT jrault theoceansystempathwaysospsanewscenarioandsimulationframeworktoinvestigatethefutureoftheworldfisheries AT jschewe theoceansystempathwaysospsanewscenarioandsimulationframeworktoinvestigatethefutureoftheworldfisheries AT yjshin theoceansystempathwaysospsanewscenarioandsimulationframeworktoinvestigatethefutureoftheworldfisheries AT hsloterdijk theoceansystempathwaysospsanewscenarioandsimulationframeworktoinvestigatethefutureoftheworldfisheries AT dsquires theoceansystempathwaysospsanewscenarioandsimulationframeworktoinvestigatethefutureoftheworldfisheries AT ursumaila theoceansystempathwaysospsanewscenarioandsimulationframeworktoinvestigatethefutureoftheworldfisheries AT antidd theoceansystempathwaysospsanewscenarioandsimulationframeworktoinvestigatethefutureoftheworldfisheries AT bvanruijven theoceansystempathwaysospsanewscenarioandsimulationframeworktoinvestigatethefutureoftheworldfisheries AT jblanchard theoceansystempathwaysospsanewscenarioandsimulationframeworktoinvestigatethefutureoftheworldfisheries AT omaury oceansystempathwaysospsanewscenarioandsimulationframeworktoinvestigatethefutureoftheworldfisheries AT dptittensor oceansystempathwaysospsanewscenarioandsimulationframeworktoinvestigatethefutureoftheworldfisheries AT tdeddy oceansystempathwaysospsanewscenarioandsimulationframeworktoinvestigatethefutureoftheworldfisheries AT ehallison oceansystempathwaysospsanewscenarioandsimulationframeworktoinvestigatethefutureoftheworldfisheries AT tbahri oceansystempathwaysospsanewscenarioandsimulationframeworktoinvestigatethefutureoftheworldfisheries AT nbarrier oceansystempathwaysospsanewscenarioandsimulationframeworktoinvestigatethefutureoftheworldfisheries AT lcampling oceansystempathwaysospsanewscenarioandsimulationframeworktoinvestigatethefutureoftheworldfisheries AT wwlcheung oceansystempathwaysospsanewscenarioandsimulationframeworktoinvestigatethefutureoftheworldfisheries AT kfrieler oceansystempathwaysospsanewscenarioandsimulationframeworktoinvestigatethefutureoftheworldfisheries AT eafulton oceansystempathwaysospsanewscenarioandsimulationframeworktoinvestigatethefutureoftheworldfisheries AT pguillotreau oceansystempathwaysospsanewscenarioandsimulationframeworktoinvestigatethefutureoftheworldfisheries AT rfheneghan oceansystempathwaysospsanewscenarioandsimulationframeworktoinvestigatethefutureoftheworldfisheries AT vwylam oceansystempathwaysospsanewscenarioandsimulationframeworktoinvestigatethefutureoftheworldfisheries AT dleclere oceansystempathwaysospsanewscenarioandsimulationframeworktoinvestigatethefutureoftheworldfisheries AT mlengaigne oceansystempathwaysospsanewscenarioandsimulationframeworktoinvestigatethefutureoftheworldfisheries AT hlotzecampen oceansystempathwaysospsanewscenarioandsimulationframeworktoinvestigatethefutureoftheworldfisheries AT cnovaglio oceansystempathwaysospsanewscenarioandsimulationframeworktoinvestigatethefutureoftheworldfisheries AT kortegacisneros oceansystempathwaysospsanewscenarioandsimulationframeworktoinvestigatethefutureoftheworldfisheries AT jrault oceansystempathwaysospsanewscenarioandsimulationframeworktoinvestigatethefutureoftheworldfisheries AT jschewe oceansystempathwaysospsanewscenarioandsimulationframeworktoinvestigatethefutureoftheworldfisheries AT yjshin oceansystempathwaysospsanewscenarioandsimulationframeworktoinvestigatethefutureoftheworldfisheries AT hsloterdijk oceansystempathwaysospsanewscenarioandsimulationframeworktoinvestigatethefutureoftheworldfisheries AT dsquires oceansystempathwaysospsanewscenarioandsimulationframeworktoinvestigatethefutureoftheworldfisheries AT ursumaila oceansystempathwaysospsanewscenarioandsimulationframeworktoinvestigatethefutureoftheworldfisheries AT antidd oceansystempathwaysospsanewscenarioandsimulationframeworktoinvestigatethefutureoftheworldfisheries AT bvanruijven oceansystempathwaysospsanewscenarioandsimulationframeworktoinvestigatethefutureoftheworldfisheries AT jblanchard oceansystempathwaysospsanewscenarioandsimulationframeworktoinvestigatethefutureoftheworldfisheries |