Adaptive ensemble spatial analysis

Abstract Spatial interpolation is a frequent issue in geosciences, where the estimation of values of a variable of interest at unsampled locations is sought from some spatial samples. The techniques most frequently employed to address this issue, such as those considered in geostatistics, require an...

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Main Authors: Alvaro F. Egaña, María Jesús Valenzuela, Mohammad Maleki, Juan F. Sánchez-Pérez, Gonzalo Díaz
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Nature Portfolio 2025-07-01
Series:Scientific Reports
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-08844-z
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author Alvaro F. Egaña
María Jesús Valenzuela
Mohammad Maleki
Juan F. Sánchez-Pérez
Gonzalo Díaz
author_facet Alvaro F. Egaña
María Jesús Valenzuela
Mohammad Maleki
Juan F. Sánchez-Pérez
Gonzalo Díaz
author_sort Alvaro F. Egaña
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Spatial interpolation is a frequent issue in geosciences, where the estimation of values of a variable of interest at unsampled locations is sought from some spatial samples. The techniques most frequently employed to address this issue, such as those considered in geostatistics, require an effort of modelling and characterisation of statistics. This has limited a greater use of these techniques in disciplines that work with spatial or spatio-temporal information. This paper presents a novel spatial analysis technique, which is an extension of a previously proposed ensemble spatial interpolation model. It aims to provide a methodology that is as data-driven as possible, useful for a more general geoscientific (or expert) audience, and capable of providing quality estimates without the need for specific classical geostatistical expertise, such as variographic analysis. Additionally, a reinterpretation of the ensemble spatial interpolation algorithm is presented as a generative Bayesian model, which offers a simple and insightful reinterpretation of the concept of spatial interpolation in general. Finally, an extensive series of experiments, using both real and synthetic data, is presented to test the limits of the proposed model in very demanding scenarios, comparing it with a traditional geostatistical model. The results obtained verify a good performance in the ability to capture the relevant spatial aspects, even in challenging conditions such as non-stationary cases or when there are few samples to perform the inference. In turn, the level of errors in validation contexts is similar to those obtained with traditional geostatistics (Ordinary Kriging method), in synthetic contexts that are suitable for the use of geostatistical techniques. In future work, further research can be considered to improve local spatial characterisation, as well as to use the proposed technique in spatial 3D case studies.
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spelling doaj-art-86e0a31d26144126b6d22a3bb2d32cac2025-08-20T03:45:53ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222025-07-0115112410.1038/s41598-025-08844-zAdaptive ensemble spatial analysisAlvaro F. Egaña0María Jesús Valenzuela1Mohammad Maleki2Juan F. Sánchez-Pérez3Gonzalo Díaz4Advanced Laboratory for Geostatistical Supercomputing - ALGES, Advanced Mining Technology Center - AMTC, Universidad de ChileAdvanced Laboratory for Geostatistical Supercomputing - ALGES, Advanced Mining Technology Center - AMTC, Universidad de ChileDepartment of Metallurgical and Mining Engineering, Universidad Católica del NorteDepartment of Applied Physics and Naval Technology, Universidad Politécnica de CartagenaAdvanced Laboratory for Geostatistical Supercomputing - ALGES, Advanced Mining Technology Center - AMTC, Universidad de ChileAbstract Spatial interpolation is a frequent issue in geosciences, where the estimation of values of a variable of interest at unsampled locations is sought from some spatial samples. The techniques most frequently employed to address this issue, such as those considered in geostatistics, require an effort of modelling and characterisation of statistics. This has limited a greater use of these techniques in disciplines that work with spatial or spatio-temporal information. This paper presents a novel spatial analysis technique, which is an extension of a previously proposed ensemble spatial interpolation model. It aims to provide a methodology that is as data-driven as possible, useful for a more general geoscientific (or expert) audience, and capable of providing quality estimates without the need for specific classical geostatistical expertise, such as variographic analysis. Additionally, a reinterpretation of the ensemble spatial interpolation algorithm is presented as a generative Bayesian model, which offers a simple and insightful reinterpretation of the concept of spatial interpolation in general. Finally, an extensive series of experiments, using both real and synthetic data, is presented to test the limits of the proposed model in very demanding scenarios, comparing it with a traditional geostatistical model. The results obtained verify a good performance in the ability to capture the relevant spatial aspects, even in challenging conditions such as non-stationary cases or when there are few samples to perform the inference. In turn, the level of errors in validation contexts is similar to those obtained with traditional geostatistics (Ordinary Kriging method), in synthetic contexts that are suitable for the use of geostatistical techniques. In future work, further research can be considered to improve local spatial characterisation, as well as to use the proposed technique in spatial 3D case studies.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-08844-z
spellingShingle Alvaro F. Egaña
María Jesús Valenzuela
Mohammad Maleki
Juan F. Sánchez-Pérez
Gonzalo Díaz
Adaptive ensemble spatial analysis
Scientific Reports
title Adaptive ensemble spatial analysis
title_full Adaptive ensemble spatial analysis
title_fullStr Adaptive ensemble spatial analysis
title_full_unstemmed Adaptive ensemble spatial analysis
title_short Adaptive ensemble spatial analysis
title_sort adaptive ensemble spatial analysis
url https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-08844-z
work_keys_str_mv AT alvarofegana adaptiveensemblespatialanalysis
AT mariajesusvalenzuela adaptiveensemblespatialanalysis
AT mohammadmaleki adaptiveensemblespatialanalysis
AT juanfsanchezperez adaptiveensemblespatialanalysis
AT gonzalodiaz adaptiveensemblespatialanalysis