Identifying climate refugia and bright spots for highly mobile species
Abstract Climate-driven shifts in species distributions can undermine the effectiveness of protected areas. We present a framework to facilitate climate change adaptation planning by identifying where highly migratory species habitats will persist (climate refugia), emerge (bright spots), disappear...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2025-07-01
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| Series: | npj Ocean Sustainability |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s44183-025-00136-3 |
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| author | Nerea Lezama-Ochoa Heather Welch Jennifer A. Brown Scott R. Benson Karin A. Forney Briana Abrahms Mercedes Pozo Buil Michael G. Jacox Barbara A. Muhling Owen R. Liu Thomas A. Clay Ryan Freedman Danielle Lipski Steven J. Bograd Elliott L. Hazen Stephanie Brodie |
| author_facet | Nerea Lezama-Ochoa Heather Welch Jennifer A. Brown Scott R. Benson Karin A. Forney Briana Abrahms Mercedes Pozo Buil Michael G. Jacox Barbara A. Muhling Owen R. Liu Thomas A. Clay Ryan Freedman Danielle Lipski Steven J. Bograd Elliott L. Hazen Stephanie Brodie |
| author_sort | Nerea Lezama-Ochoa |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Climate-driven shifts in species distributions can undermine the effectiveness of protected areas. We present a framework to facilitate climate change adaptation planning by identifying where highly migratory species habitats will persist (climate refugia), emerge (bright spots), disappear (dark spots), or remain unsuitable based on model analysis by 2100. When applied to eight species in the California Current System, we found that, on average, 37% of habitats are expected to be climate refugia, 9% are bright spots, and 13% are dark spots within National Marine Sanctuaries by 2100. Species responses differ: leatherback turtles may find refuge near U.S. coastal waters (18%), blue whales may show increased bright spots (41%), and humpback whales may exhibit more dark spots (44%). These findings highlight the need to integrate species projections into spatial planning to enhance species conservation. Our approach can be applied globally to evaluate the effectiveness of protected areas in safeguarding biodiversity under climate change. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-85ec5c256d9a410cb9ebeb053fe85232 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2731-426X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-07-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | npj Ocean Sustainability |
| spelling | doaj-art-85ec5c256d9a410cb9ebeb053fe852322025-08-20T04:01:56ZengNature Portfolionpj Ocean Sustainability2731-426X2025-07-01411910.1038/s44183-025-00136-3Identifying climate refugia and bright spots for highly mobile speciesNerea Lezama-Ochoa0Heather Welch1Jennifer A. Brown2Scott R. Benson3Karin A. Forney4Briana Abrahms5Mercedes Pozo Buil6Michael G. Jacox7Barbara A. Muhling8Owen R. Liu9Thomas A. Clay10Ryan Freedman11Danielle Lipski12Steven J. Bograd13Elliott L. Hazen14Stephanie Brodie15Institute of Marine Science, University of California Santa CruzInstitute of Marine Science, University of California Santa CruzECOS Consulting, LLCMarine Mammal and Turtle Division, Southwest Fisheries Science Center National Marine Fisheries Service National Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationMarine Mammal and Turtle Division, Southwest Fisheries Science Center National Marine Fisheries Service National Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationDepartment of Biology, Center for Ecosystem Sentinels, University of WashingtonInstitute of Marine Science, University of California Santa CruzEcosystem Science Division, Southwest Fisheries Science Center National Marine Fisheries Service National Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationInstitute of Marine Science, University of California Santa CruzNorthwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationInstitute of Marine Science, University of California Santa CruzChannel Islands National Marine Sanctuary, Office of National Marine Sanctuaries, National Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationGreater Farallones and Cordell Bank National Marine Sanctuary, Office of National Marine Sanctuaries, National Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationInstitute of Marine Science, University of California Santa CruzInstitute of Marine Science, University of California Santa CruzCommonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO), EnvironmentAbstract Climate-driven shifts in species distributions can undermine the effectiveness of protected areas. We present a framework to facilitate climate change adaptation planning by identifying where highly migratory species habitats will persist (climate refugia), emerge (bright spots), disappear (dark spots), or remain unsuitable based on model analysis by 2100. When applied to eight species in the California Current System, we found that, on average, 37% of habitats are expected to be climate refugia, 9% are bright spots, and 13% are dark spots within National Marine Sanctuaries by 2100. Species responses differ: leatherback turtles may find refuge near U.S. coastal waters (18%), blue whales may show increased bright spots (41%), and humpback whales may exhibit more dark spots (44%). These findings highlight the need to integrate species projections into spatial planning to enhance species conservation. Our approach can be applied globally to evaluate the effectiveness of protected areas in safeguarding biodiversity under climate change.https://doi.org/10.1038/s44183-025-00136-3 |
| spellingShingle | Nerea Lezama-Ochoa Heather Welch Jennifer A. Brown Scott R. Benson Karin A. Forney Briana Abrahms Mercedes Pozo Buil Michael G. Jacox Barbara A. Muhling Owen R. Liu Thomas A. Clay Ryan Freedman Danielle Lipski Steven J. Bograd Elliott L. Hazen Stephanie Brodie Identifying climate refugia and bright spots for highly mobile species npj Ocean Sustainability |
| title | Identifying climate refugia and bright spots for highly mobile species |
| title_full | Identifying climate refugia and bright spots for highly mobile species |
| title_fullStr | Identifying climate refugia and bright spots for highly mobile species |
| title_full_unstemmed | Identifying climate refugia and bright spots for highly mobile species |
| title_short | Identifying climate refugia and bright spots for highly mobile species |
| title_sort | identifying climate refugia and bright spots for highly mobile species |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s44183-025-00136-3 |
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