Growth over climate or aviation climate policy in the Avoid–Shift–Improve framework

Abstract Aviation is one of the most challenging sectors in terms of its decarbonisation. While the difficulties are well-known, there is still a prominent climate-neutral growth narrative promising that Paris-aligned climate goals can be attained without jeopardising growth. To what extent is this...

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Main Author: Emilia Suomalainen
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Nature Portfolio 2025-06-01
Series:npj Climate Action
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1038/s44168-025-00261-2
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author Emilia Suomalainen
author_facet Emilia Suomalainen
author_sort Emilia Suomalainen
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Aviation is one of the most challenging sectors in terms of its decarbonisation. While the difficulties are well-known, there is still a prominent climate-neutral growth narrative promising that Paris-aligned climate goals can be attained without jeopardising growth. To what extent is this narrative still credible in key aviation strategy documents? Notably, are the limitations of technological solutions to mitigating aviation emissions recognised? Are the possibilities of modal shift and/or demand management explored, hinting at a need to reduce air travel? In this work, these questions are examined for the European Union and Finland through the Avoid–Shift–Improve framework. Though the limitations of technological reality are starting to undermine the climate-neutral growth narrative, the need for out-of-sector measures to bridge the gap is not addressed. The current focus on (future) technological solutions does, however, mean that the climate impact of aviation is likely to continue unabated in the near term.
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spelling doaj-art-85b19c3c31244cdba6d6239f1bc809332025-08-20T03:21:06ZengNature Portfolionpj Climate Action2731-98142025-06-01411910.1038/s44168-025-00261-2Growth over climate or aviation climate policy in the Avoid–Shift–Improve frameworkEmilia Suomalainen0Finnish Environment InstituteAbstract Aviation is one of the most challenging sectors in terms of its decarbonisation. While the difficulties are well-known, there is still a prominent climate-neutral growth narrative promising that Paris-aligned climate goals can be attained without jeopardising growth. To what extent is this narrative still credible in key aviation strategy documents? Notably, are the limitations of technological solutions to mitigating aviation emissions recognised? Are the possibilities of modal shift and/or demand management explored, hinting at a need to reduce air travel? In this work, these questions are examined for the European Union and Finland through the Avoid–Shift–Improve framework. Though the limitations of technological reality are starting to undermine the climate-neutral growth narrative, the need for out-of-sector measures to bridge the gap is not addressed. The current focus on (future) technological solutions does, however, mean that the climate impact of aviation is likely to continue unabated in the near term.https://doi.org/10.1038/s44168-025-00261-2
spellingShingle Emilia Suomalainen
Growth over climate or aviation climate policy in the Avoid–Shift–Improve framework
npj Climate Action
title Growth over climate or aviation climate policy in the Avoid–Shift–Improve framework
title_full Growth over climate or aviation climate policy in the Avoid–Shift–Improve framework
title_fullStr Growth over climate or aviation climate policy in the Avoid–Shift–Improve framework
title_full_unstemmed Growth over climate or aviation climate policy in the Avoid–Shift–Improve framework
title_short Growth over climate or aviation climate policy in the Avoid–Shift–Improve framework
title_sort growth over climate or aviation climate policy in the avoid shift improve framework
url https://doi.org/10.1038/s44168-025-00261-2
work_keys_str_mv AT emiliasuomalainen growthoverclimateoraviationclimatepolicyintheavoidshiftimproveframework