Spatiotemporal Evolution Patterns and Influencing Factors of Rural Shrinkage Under Rapid Urbanization: A Case Study of Zhejiang Province, China

Under the context of urban–rural mobility driven by rapid urbanization, rural shrinkage is particularly pronounced in the developed regions of China, yet studies exploring its patterns and influencing factors are scarce. This paper uses Zhejiang Province as a case study to investigate the spatiotemp...

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Main Authors: Rongrong Zhuo, Xinni Xu, Yuchen Zhou, Xinwei Guo
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2024-12-01
Series:Land
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/13/12/2137
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author Rongrong Zhuo
Xinni Xu
Yuchen Zhou
Xinwei Guo
author_facet Rongrong Zhuo
Xinni Xu
Yuchen Zhou
Xinwei Guo
author_sort Rongrong Zhuo
collection DOAJ
description Under the context of urban–rural mobility driven by rapid urbanization, rural shrinkage is particularly pronounced in the developed regions of China, yet studies exploring its patterns and influencing factors are scarce. This paper uses Zhejiang Province as a case study to investigate the spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors of rural shrinkage from 2000 to 2020. By employing spatial autocorrelation analysis and spatial econometric modeling, the study investigates both population and spatial shrinkage. The findings reveal the following: (1) a marked spatiotemporal imbalance exists in population and spatial dynamics in Zhejiang’s rural areas, where the interplay between population and spatial shrinkage contributes to regional disparities. (2) From 2000 to 2020, population shrinkage shifted from a global shrinkage to a more localized decline in the northeast and southwest, while spatial shrinkage shifted from a global non-shrinkage to a focus on central and southwestern areas. (3) Urbanization significantly negatively impacts rural shrinkage, while the spatial spillover effect of urbanization is notably positive. In contrast, factors related to natural conditions, location, and agricultural investment show significant positive effects but also notable negative spatial spillover effects. This study aims to provide a comprehensive analytical framework for understanding rural shrinkage and offers valuable insights for rural development, infrastructure planning, and spatial governance.
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spelling doaj-art-8541bef05d5a4a858db971b64468aaf82025-08-20T02:53:34ZengMDPI AGLand2073-445X2024-12-011312213710.3390/land13122137Spatiotemporal Evolution Patterns and Influencing Factors of Rural Shrinkage Under Rapid Urbanization: A Case Study of Zhejiang Province, ChinaRongrong Zhuo0Xinni Xu1Yuchen Zhou2Xinwei Guo3School of Public Administration, Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics, Hangzhou 310018, ChinaSchool of Public Administration, Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics, Hangzhou 310018, ChinaSchool of Public Administration, Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics, Hangzhou 310018, ChinaSchool of Geographic Sciences, Xinyang Normal University, Xinyang 464000, ChinaUnder the context of urban–rural mobility driven by rapid urbanization, rural shrinkage is particularly pronounced in the developed regions of China, yet studies exploring its patterns and influencing factors are scarce. This paper uses Zhejiang Province as a case study to investigate the spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors of rural shrinkage from 2000 to 2020. By employing spatial autocorrelation analysis and spatial econometric modeling, the study investigates both population and spatial shrinkage. The findings reveal the following: (1) a marked spatiotemporal imbalance exists in population and spatial dynamics in Zhejiang’s rural areas, where the interplay between population and spatial shrinkage contributes to regional disparities. (2) From 2000 to 2020, population shrinkage shifted from a global shrinkage to a more localized decline in the northeast and southwest, while spatial shrinkage shifted from a global non-shrinkage to a focus on central and southwestern areas. (3) Urbanization significantly negatively impacts rural shrinkage, while the spatial spillover effect of urbanization is notably positive. In contrast, factors related to natural conditions, location, and agricultural investment show significant positive effects but also notable negative spatial spillover effects. This study aims to provide a comprehensive analytical framework for understanding rural shrinkage and offers valuable insights for rural development, infrastructure planning, and spatial governance.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/13/12/2137rural shrinkagerural depopulationspatial shrinkageurbanizationspatial econometric modelrural China
spellingShingle Rongrong Zhuo
Xinni Xu
Yuchen Zhou
Xinwei Guo
Spatiotemporal Evolution Patterns and Influencing Factors of Rural Shrinkage Under Rapid Urbanization: A Case Study of Zhejiang Province, China
Land
rural shrinkage
rural depopulation
spatial shrinkage
urbanization
spatial econometric model
rural China
title Spatiotemporal Evolution Patterns and Influencing Factors of Rural Shrinkage Under Rapid Urbanization: A Case Study of Zhejiang Province, China
title_full Spatiotemporal Evolution Patterns and Influencing Factors of Rural Shrinkage Under Rapid Urbanization: A Case Study of Zhejiang Province, China
title_fullStr Spatiotemporal Evolution Patterns and Influencing Factors of Rural Shrinkage Under Rapid Urbanization: A Case Study of Zhejiang Province, China
title_full_unstemmed Spatiotemporal Evolution Patterns and Influencing Factors of Rural Shrinkage Under Rapid Urbanization: A Case Study of Zhejiang Province, China
title_short Spatiotemporal Evolution Patterns and Influencing Factors of Rural Shrinkage Under Rapid Urbanization: A Case Study of Zhejiang Province, China
title_sort spatiotemporal evolution patterns and influencing factors of rural shrinkage under rapid urbanization a case study of zhejiang province china
topic rural shrinkage
rural depopulation
spatial shrinkage
urbanization
spatial econometric model
rural China
url https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/13/12/2137
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