A Quantitative Analysis of Firefighter Availability and Prescribed Burning in the Okanogan–Wenatchee National Forest
Wildfire activity in the western United States has been on the rise since the mid-1980s, with longer, higher-risk fire seasons projected for the future. Prescribed burning mitigates the risk of extreme wildfire events, but such treatments are currently underutilized. Fire managers have cited lack of...
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| Format: | Article |
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MDPI AG
2025-04-01
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| Series: | Fire |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2571-6255/8/5/167 |
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| author | Anna Kenig-Ziesler Alison C. Cullen Erin J. Belval |
| author_facet | Anna Kenig-Ziesler Alison C. Cullen Erin J. Belval |
| author_sort | Anna Kenig-Ziesler |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Wildfire activity in the western United States has been on the rise since the mid-1980s, with longer, higher-risk fire seasons projected for the future. Prescribed burning mitigates the risk of extreme wildfire events, but such treatments are currently underutilized. Fire managers have cited lack of firefighter availability as a key barrier to prescribed burning. We use both principal component analysis (PCA) and logistic regression modeling methodologies to investigate whether or not (and if yes, under what conditions) personnel shortages on a given day are associated with lower odds of a prescribed burn occurring in the Okanogan–Wenatchee National Forest. We utilize the logit model to further assess how personnel availability compares to other potential barriers (e.g., meteorological conditions) in terms of association with odds of a prescribed burn occurring. Our analysis finds that fall and spring days in general have distinct constellations of characteristics. Unavailability of personnel is associated with lower odds of prescribed burning in the fall season, controlling for meteorological conditions. However, in the spring, only fuel moisture is observed to be associated with the odds of prescribed burning. Our findings suggest that if agencies aim to increase prescribed burning to mitigate wildfire risk, workforce decisions should prioritize firefighter availability in the fall. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-84ff42dbbb9f4118924c23c07ce5b936 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2571-6255 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-04-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Fire |
| spelling | doaj-art-84ff42dbbb9f4118924c23c07ce5b9362025-08-20T03:14:31ZengMDPI AGFire2571-62552025-04-018516710.3390/fire8050167A Quantitative Analysis of Firefighter Availability and Prescribed Burning in the Okanogan–Wenatchee National ForestAnna Kenig-Ziesler0Alison C. Cullen1Erin J. Belval2Daniel J. Evans School of Public Policy and Governance, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195-3055, USADaniel J. Evans School of Public Policy and Governance, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195-3055, USAUSDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins, CO 80526, USAWildfire activity in the western United States has been on the rise since the mid-1980s, with longer, higher-risk fire seasons projected for the future. Prescribed burning mitigates the risk of extreme wildfire events, but such treatments are currently underutilized. Fire managers have cited lack of firefighter availability as a key barrier to prescribed burning. We use both principal component analysis (PCA) and logistic regression modeling methodologies to investigate whether or not (and if yes, under what conditions) personnel shortages on a given day are associated with lower odds of a prescribed burn occurring in the Okanogan–Wenatchee National Forest. We utilize the logit model to further assess how personnel availability compares to other potential barriers (e.g., meteorological conditions) in terms of association with odds of a prescribed burn occurring. Our analysis finds that fall and spring days in general have distinct constellations of characteristics. Unavailability of personnel is associated with lower odds of prescribed burning in the fall season, controlling for meteorological conditions. However, in the spring, only fuel moisture is observed to be associated with the odds of prescribed burning. Our findings suggest that if agencies aim to increase prescribed burning to mitigate wildfire risk, workforce decisions should prioritize firefighter availability in the fall.https://www.mdpi.com/2571-6255/8/5/167prescribed fireprescribed burningfirefightersfirefighting workforcefirefighting personnel deploymentfuel treatment |
| spellingShingle | Anna Kenig-Ziesler Alison C. Cullen Erin J. Belval A Quantitative Analysis of Firefighter Availability and Prescribed Burning in the Okanogan–Wenatchee National Forest Fire prescribed fire prescribed burning firefighters firefighting workforce firefighting personnel deployment fuel treatment |
| title | A Quantitative Analysis of Firefighter Availability and Prescribed Burning in the Okanogan–Wenatchee National Forest |
| title_full | A Quantitative Analysis of Firefighter Availability and Prescribed Burning in the Okanogan–Wenatchee National Forest |
| title_fullStr | A Quantitative Analysis of Firefighter Availability and Prescribed Burning in the Okanogan–Wenatchee National Forest |
| title_full_unstemmed | A Quantitative Analysis of Firefighter Availability and Prescribed Burning in the Okanogan–Wenatchee National Forest |
| title_short | A Quantitative Analysis of Firefighter Availability and Prescribed Burning in the Okanogan–Wenatchee National Forest |
| title_sort | quantitative analysis of firefighter availability and prescribed burning in the okanogan wenatchee national forest |
| topic | prescribed fire prescribed burning firefighters firefighting workforce firefighting personnel deployment fuel treatment |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2571-6255/8/5/167 |
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