Assessing the spatio-temporal risk of Aedes-borne arboviral diseases in non-endemic regions: The case of Northern Spain.
Arboviral diseases represent a growing global health challenge. While dengue cases surge in endemic regions, non-endemic areas in southern Europe are seeing a rise in imported cases of dengue, Zika, and chikungunya, along with the first autochthonous dengue transmissions. The expanding Aedes mosquit...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2025-07-01
|
| Series: | PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0013325 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1849338296223662080 |
|---|---|
| author | Bruno V Guerrero Vanessa Steindorf Rubén Blasco-Aguado Luís Mateus Aitor Cevidanes Jesús F Barandika Ana Ramírez de La Peciña Pérez Joseba Bidaurrazaga Van-Dierdonck Jesús Angel Ocio Armentia Nico Stollenwerk Maíra Aguiar |
| author_facet | Bruno V Guerrero Vanessa Steindorf Rubén Blasco-Aguado Luís Mateus Aitor Cevidanes Jesús F Barandika Ana Ramírez de La Peciña Pérez Joseba Bidaurrazaga Van-Dierdonck Jesús Angel Ocio Armentia Nico Stollenwerk Maíra Aguiar |
| author_sort | Bruno V Guerrero |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Arboviral diseases represent a growing global health challenge. While dengue cases surge in endemic regions, non-endemic areas in southern Europe are seeing a rise in imported cases of dengue, Zika, and chikungunya, along with the first autochthonous dengue transmissions. The expanding Aedes mosquito populations, influenced by climate change, and increased international travel introducing viremic cases further elevate the risk of outbreaks. These trends emphasize the urgent need for effective risk assessment and timely intervention strategies. We present a data-driven methodology to assess the spatio-temporal risk of Aedes-borne arboviral diseases in non-endemic settings, addressing key limitations of models developed primarily for endemic regions and challenges related to limited data availability. Our approach builds on the SIRUVY human-vector compartmental model and incorporates stochastic formulations to capture variability in imported cases and mosquito density - two critical drivers of autochthonous transmission and outbreak emergence. This framework improves risk estimation and offers insights into transmission dynamics in regions where outbreaks are rare and unpredictable, shaped by sporadic case importations and a non-persistent vector presence. Using data from the Basque Country (2019-2023), including Aedes mosquito egg counts as a proxy for vector abundance and records of imported cases, we mapped the monthly risk of local transmission at the municipal level and conducted a scenario-based risk assessment aligned with Spain's entomological classification. Our findings indicate a growing presence of Aedes mosquitoes and an increasing transmission risk in urban and peri-urban areas of the Basque Country, revealing shifting hotspots of possible arboviral disease transmission. These results highlight the importance of sustained surveillance to identify high-risk locations and prioritize targeted public health interventions to prevent potential outbreaks. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-8402ad18a6da4f3ba1a0010619f3e0dd |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1935-2727 1935-2735 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-07-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
| spelling | doaj-art-8402ad18a6da4f3ba1a0010619f3e0dd2025-08-20T03:44:27ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases1935-27271935-27352025-07-01197e001332510.1371/journal.pntd.0013325Assessing the spatio-temporal risk of Aedes-borne arboviral diseases in non-endemic regions: The case of Northern Spain.Bruno V GuerreroVanessa SteindorfRubén Blasco-AguadoLuís MateusAitor CevidanesJesús F BarandikaAna Ramírez de La Peciña PérezJoseba Bidaurrazaga Van-DierdonckJesús Angel Ocio ArmentiaNico StollenwerkMaíra AguiarArboviral diseases represent a growing global health challenge. While dengue cases surge in endemic regions, non-endemic areas in southern Europe are seeing a rise in imported cases of dengue, Zika, and chikungunya, along with the first autochthonous dengue transmissions. The expanding Aedes mosquito populations, influenced by climate change, and increased international travel introducing viremic cases further elevate the risk of outbreaks. These trends emphasize the urgent need for effective risk assessment and timely intervention strategies. We present a data-driven methodology to assess the spatio-temporal risk of Aedes-borne arboviral diseases in non-endemic settings, addressing key limitations of models developed primarily for endemic regions and challenges related to limited data availability. Our approach builds on the SIRUVY human-vector compartmental model and incorporates stochastic formulations to capture variability in imported cases and mosquito density - two critical drivers of autochthonous transmission and outbreak emergence. This framework improves risk estimation and offers insights into transmission dynamics in regions where outbreaks are rare and unpredictable, shaped by sporadic case importations and a non-persistent vector presence. Using data from the Basque Country (2019-2023), including Aedes mosquito egg counts as a proxy for vector abundance and records of imported cases, we mapped the monthly risk of local transmission at the municipal level and conducted a scenario-based risk assessment aligned with Spain's entomological classification. Our findings indicate a growing presence of Aedes mosquitoes and an increasing transmission risk in urban and peri-urban areas of the Basque Country, revealing shifting hotspots of possible arboviral disease transmission. These results highlight the importance of sustained surveillance to identify high-risk locations and prioritize targeted public health interventions to prevent potential outbreaks.https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0013325 |
| spellingShingle | Bruno V Guerrero Vanessa Steindorf Rubén Blasco-Aguado Luís Mateus Aitor Cevidanes Jesús F Barandika Ana Ramírez de La Peciña Pérez Joseba Bidaurrazaga Van-Dierdonck Jesús Angel Ocio Armentia Nico Stollenwerk Maíra Aguiar Assessing the spatio-temporal risk of Aedes-borne arboviral diseases in non-endemic regions: The case of Northern Spain. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
| title | Assessing the spatio-temporal risk of Aedes-borne arboviral diseases in non-endemic regions: The case of Northern Spain. |
| title_full | Assessing the spatio-temporal risk of Aedes-borne arboviral diseases in non-endemic regions: The case of Northern Spain. |
| title_fullStr | Assessing the spatio-temporal risk of Aedes-borne arboviral diseases in non-endemic regions: The case of Northern Spain. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Assessing the spatio-temporal risk of Aedes-borne arboviral diseases in non-endemic regions: The case of Northern Spain. |
| title_short | Assessing the spatio-temporal risk of Aedes-borne arboviral diseases in non-endemic regions: The case of Northern Spain. |
| title_sort | assessing the spatio temporal risk of aedes borne arboviral diseases in non endemic regions the case of northern spain |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0013325 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT brunovguerrero assessingthespatiotemporalriskofaedesbornearboviraldiseasesinnonendemicregionsthecaseofnorthernspain AT vanessasteindorf assessingthespatiotemporalriskofaedesbornearboviraldiseasesinnonendemicregionsthecaseofnorthernspain AT rubenblascoaguado assessingthespatiotemporalriskofaedesbornearboviraldiseasesinnonendemicregionsthecaseofnorthernspain AT luismateus assessingthespatiotemporalriskofaedesbornearboviraldiseasesinnonendemicregionsthecaseofnorthernspain AT aitorcevidanes assessingthespatiotemporalriskofaedesbornearboviraldiseasesinnonendemicregionsthecaseofnorthernspain AT jesusfbarandika assessingthespatiotemporalriskofaedesbornearboviraldiseasesinnonendemicregionsthecaseofnorthernspain AT anaramirezdelapecinaperez assessingthespatiotemporalriskofaedesbornearboviraldiseasesinnonendemicregionsthecaseofnorthernspain AT josebabidaurrazagavandierdonck assessingthespatiotemporalriskofaedesbornearboviraldiseasesinnonendemicregionsthecaseofnorthernspain AT jesusangelocioarmentia assessingthespatiotemporalriskofaedesbornearboviraldiseasesinnonendemicregionsthecaseofnorthernspain AT nicostollenwerk assessingthespatiotemporalriskofaedesbornearboviraldiseasesinnonendemicregionsthecaseofnorthernspain AT mairaaguiar assessingthespatiotemporalriskofaedesbornearboviraldiseasesinnonendemicregionsthecaseofnorthernspain |