The spatial shifts and vulnerability assessment of ecological niches under climate change scenarios at the genus level: A case study of Betula, China
As global warming persistently alters and rapidly reshapes landscapes and habitats, conventional species distribution models relying solely on maintaining static conditions within the current climate are likely to falter, particularly at the genus level. Hence, we hypothesize that climate change wil...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
KeAi Communications Co., Ltd.
2025-12-01
|
| Series: | Forest Ecosystems |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2197562025000697 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1849228379544354816 |
|---|---|
| author | Xian-Ge Hu Jiahui Chen Ying Yang Man Shi Peng Liu Yiheng Lin Jian-Feng Mao Yousry A. El-Kassaby Erpei Lin Huahong Huang |
| author_facet | Xian-Ge Hu Jiahui Chen Ying Yang Man Shi Peng Liu Yiheng Lin Jian-Feng Mao Yousry A. El-Kassaby Erpei Lin Huahong Huang |
| author_sort | Xian-Ge Hu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | As global warming persistently alters and rapidly reshapes landscapes and habitats, conventional species distribution models relying solely on maintaining static conditions within the current climate are likely to falter, particularly at the genus level. Hence, we hypothesize that climate change will differentially affect ecological niches of the same genus species with various latitudinal positioning and local topography, and the high-latitude species may experience greater niche contraction than low-latitude species, and that mountainous regions with high elevational variability may serve as critical climate refugia. Herein, we simulate niche alterations and integrate an ensemble model (EM) strategy, taking into account species dispersal limitations factors (topography, soil, and ultraviolet), to construct a comprehensive habitat suitability (CHS) model for assessing the future vulnerability of the Betula genus, most of which are timber species in China. Our findings reveal that the niche spatial (geographic distribution) of most species (62%) within the Betula genus will undergo a gradual decline under climate change, supporting our hypothesis of latitudinal differentiation in climate vulnerability. Intriguingly, the projected high-latitude niche reduction within the genus cannot be counterbalanced by the anticipated niche expansion of closely related species in low-latitude regions, even considering the evident latitudinal gradient distribution of species. Nonetheless, the niche spatial of six Betula species in southwestern China remains stable or expands under warming scenarios, strongly supporting our secondary hypothesis about topographic buffering effects, which probably means the unique topography (i.e., the largest elevation difference) of this region may serve as a sanctuary for preserving Betula genetic diversity. Our results underscore the uncertain nature of pre-existing niche systems at the genus level under climate change, emphasizing the need for diligent resource management and conservation planning for vulnerable timber species. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-834b0c4b738e4a668c2aa8529b0f7ed6 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2197-5620 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-12-01 |
| publisher | KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Forest Ecosystems |
| spelling | doaj-art-834b0c4b738e4a668c2aa8529b0f7ed62025-08-23T04:48:03ZengKeAi Communications Co., Ltd.Forest Ecosystems2197-56202025-12-011410036010.1016/j.fecs.2025.100360The spatial shifts and vulnerability assessment of ecological niches under climate change scenarios at the genus level: A case study of Betula, ChinaXian-Ge Hu0Jiahui Chen1Ying Yang2Man Shi3Peng Liu4Yiheng Lin5Jian-Feng Mao6Yousry A. El-Kassaby7Erpei Lin8Huahong Huang9National Key Laboratory for Development and Utilization of Forest Food Resources, Zhejiang International Science and Technology Cooperation Base for Plant Germplasm Resources Conservation and Utilization, College of Forestry and Biotechnology, Zhejiang A&F University, Hangzhou 311300, ChinaNational Key Laboratory for Development and Utilization of Forest Food Resources, Zhejiang International Science and Technology Cooperation Base for Plant Germplasm Resources Conservation and Utilization, College of Forestry and Biotechnology, Zhejiang A&F University, Hangzhou 311300, ChinaNational Key Laboratory for Development and Utilization of Forest Food Resources, Zhejiang International Science and Technology Cooperation Base for Plant Germplasm Resources Conservation and Utilization, College of Forestry and Biotechnology, Zhejiang A&F University, Hangzhou 311300, ChinaNational Key Laboratory for Development and Utilization of Forest Food Resources, Zhejiang International Science and Technology Cooperation Base for Plant Germplasm Resources Conservation and Utilization, College of Forestry and Biotechnology, Zhejiang A&F University, Hangzhou 311300, ChinaSchool of Soil and Water Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, ChinaNational Key Laboratory for Development and Utilization of Forest Food Resources, Zhejiang International Science and Technology Cooperation Base for Plant Germplasm Resources Conservation and Utilization, College of Forestry and Biotechnology, Zhejiang A&F University, Hangzhou 311300, ChinaDepartment of Plant Physiology, Umeå Plant Science Centre, Umeå University, Umeå SE-901 87, SwedenDepartment of Forest and Conservation Sciences, Faculty of Forestry, The University of British Columbia, BC V6T 1Z4, CanadaNational Key Laboratory for Development and Utilization of Forest Food Resources, Zhejiang International Science and Technology Cooperation Base for Plant Germplasm Resources Conservation and Utilization, College of Forestry and Biotechnology, Zhejiang A&F University, Hangzhou 311300, ChinaNational Key Laboratory for Development and Utilization of Forest Food Resources, Zhejiang International Science and Technology Cooperation Base for Plant Germplasm Resources Conservation and Utilization, College of Forestry and Biotechnology, Zhejiang A&F University, Hangzhou 311300, China; Corresponding author.As global warming persistently alters and rapidly reshapes landscapes and habitats, conventional species distribution models relying solely on maintaining static conditions within the current climate are likely to falter, particularly at the genus level. Hence, we hypothesize that climate change will differentially affect ecological niches of the same genus species with various latitudinal positioning and local topography, and the high-latitude species may experience greater niche contraction than low-latitude species, and that mountainous regions with high elevational variability may serve as critical climate refugia. Herein, we simulate niche alterations and integrate an ensemble model (EM) strategy, taking into account species dispersal limitations factors (topography, soil, and ultraviolet), to construct a comprehensive habitat suitability (CHS) model for assessing the future vulnerability of the Betula genus, most of which are timber species in China. Our findings reveal that the niche spatial (geographic distribution) of most species (62%) within the Betula genus will undergo a gradual decline under climate change, supporting our hypothesis of latitudinal differentiation in climate vulnerability. Intriguingly, the projected high-latitude niche reduction within the genus cannot be counterbalanced by the anticipated niche expansion of closely related species in low-latitude regions, even considering the evident latitudinal gradient distribution of species. Nonetheless, the niche spatial of six Betula species in southwestern China remains stable or expands under warming scenarios, strongly supporting our secondary hypothesis about topographic buffering effects, which probably means the unique topography (i.e., the largest elevation difference) of this region may serve as a sanctuary for preserving Betula genetic diversity. Our results underscore the uncertain nature of pre-existing niche systems at the genus level under climate change, emphasizing the need for diligent resource management and conservation planning for vulnerable timber species.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2197562025000697Climate changeNiches spatialEnsemble model (EM)Betula genus |
| spellingShingle | Xian-Ge Hu Jiahui Chen Ying Yang Man Shi Peng Liu Yiheng Lin Jian-Feng Mao Yousry A. El-Kassaby Erpei Lin Huahong Huang The spatial shifts and vulnerability assessment of ecological niches under climate change scenarios at the genus level: A case study of Betula, China Forest Ecosystems Climate change Niches spatial Ensemble model (EM) Betula genus |
| title | The spatial shifts and vulnerability assessment of ecological niches under climate change scenarios at the genus level: A case study of Betula, China |
| title_full | The spatial shifts and vulnerability assessment of ecological niches under climate change scenarios at the genus level: A case study of Betula, China |
| title_fullStr | The spatial shifts and vulnerability assessment of ecological niches under climate change scenarios at the genus level: A case study of Betula, China |
| title_full_unstemmed | The spatial shifts and vulnerability assessment of ecological niches under climate change scenarios at the genus level: A case study of Betula, China |
| title_short | The spatial shifts and vulnerability assessment of ecological niches under climate change scenarios at the genus level: A case study of Betula, China |
| title_sort | spatial shifts and vulnerability assessment of ecological niches under climate change scenarios at the genus level a case study of betula china |
| topic | Climate change Niches spatial Ensemble model (EM) Betula genus |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2197562025000697 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT xiangehu thespatialshiftsandvulnerabilityassessmentofecologicalnichesunderclimatechangescenariosatthegenuslevelacasestudyofbetulachina AT jiahuichen thespatialshiftsandvulnerabilityassessmentofecologicalnichesunderclimatechangescenariosatthegenuslevelacasestudyofbetulachina AT yingyang thespatialshiftsandvulnerabilityassessmentofecologicalnichesunderclimatechangescenariosatthegenuslevelacasestudyofbetulachina AT manshi thespatialshiftsandvulnerabilityassessmentofecologicalnichesunderclimatechangescenariosatthegenuslevelacasestudyofbetulachina AT pengliu thespatialshiftsandvulnerabilityassessmentofecologicalnichesunderclimatechangescenariosatthegenuslevelacasestudyofbetulachina AT yihenglin thespatialshiftsandvulnerabilityassessmentofecologicalnichesunderclimatechangescenariosatthegenuslevelacasestudyofbetulachina AT jianfengmao thespatialshiftsandvulnerabilityassessmentofecologicalnichesunderclimatechangescenariosatthegenuslevelacasestudyofbetulachina AT yousryaelkassaby thespatialshiftsandvulnerabilityassessmentofecologicalnichesunderclimatechangescenariosatthegenuslevelacasestudyofbetulachina AT erpeilin thespatialshiftsandvulnerabilityassessmentofecologicalnichesunderclimatechangescenariosatthegenuslevelacasestudyofbetulachina AT huahonghuang thespatialshiftsandvulnerabilityassessmentofecologicalnichesunderclimatechangescenariosatthegenuslevelacasestudyofbetulachina AT xiangehu spatialshiftsandvulnerabilityassessmentofecologicalnichesunderclimatechangescenariosatthegenuslevelacasestudyofbetulachina AT jiahuichen spatialshiftsandvulnerabilityassessmentofecologicalnichesunderclimatechangescenariosatthegenuslevelacasestudyofbetulachina AT yingyang spatialshiftsandvulnerabilityassessmentofecologicalnichesunderclimatechangescenariosatthegenuslevelacasestudyofbetulachina AT manshi spatialshiftsandvulnerabilityassessmentofecologicalnichesunderclimatechangescenariosatthegenuslevelacasestudyofbetulachina AT pengliu spatialshiftsandvulnerabilityassessmentofecologicalnichesunderclimatechangescenariosatthegenuslevelacasestudyofbetulachina AT yihenglin spatialshiftsandvulnerabilityassessmentofecologicalnichesunderclimatechangescenariosatthegenuslevelacasestudyofbetulachina AT jianfengmao spatialshiftsandvulnerabilityassessmentofecologicalnichesunderclimatechangescenariosatthegenuslevelacasestudyofbetulachina AT yousryaelkassaby spatialshiftsandvulnerabilityassessmentofecologicalnichesunderclimatechangescenariosatthegenuslevelacasestudyofbetulachina AT erpeilin spatialshiftsandvulnerabilityassessmentofecologicalnichesunderclimatechangescenariosatthegenuslevelacasestudyofbetulachina AT huahonghuang spatialshiftsandvulnerabilityassessmentofecologicalnichesunderclimatechangescenariosatthegenuslevelacasestudyofbetulachina |