Evaluating drought risks and metrological hazards in the Mahanadi basin: impact of precipitation deficits and climate change on the downstream regions of Hirakud dam
Abstract Using a multi-index framework, this study evaluates historical and projected drought risks in the downstream regions of the Hirakud Reservoir within the Mahanadi River Basin, Odisha. Four drought indices—Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), China Z Index (CZI), Rainfall Departure (RD), a...
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| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Springer
2025-07-01
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| Series: | Discover Applied Sciences |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1007/s42452-025-07310-9 |
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| Summary: | Abstract Using a multi-index framework, this study evaluates historical and projected drought risks in the downstream regions of the Hirakud Reservoir within the Mahanadi River Basin, Odisha. Four drought indices—Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), China Z Index (CZI), Rainfall Departure (RD), and Z-Score—were analyzed using high-resolution datasets from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) and NASA’s Next-Generation NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSPs) 4.5 and 8.5. The major findings are as follows: Historical analysis (1950–2005) showed that 33.64% (IMD) and 39.4% (NEX-GDDP) of periods experienced below-normal rainfall, indicating persistent drought conditions. The SPI-12 index revealed that 22.73% of NEX-GDDP and 14.85% of IMD periods were extremely too severely dry, confirming SPI's sensitivity to long-term metrological droughts. CZI results indicated predominantly near-normal conditions due to its lower sensitivity to extremes, proving more suitable for short-term recovery assessment. Future climate projections show a 15–22% decline in precipitation under SSP2-4.5 and 25–30% under SSP5-8.5 by 2060, accompanied by significant temperature increases, especially during dry months. The downstream regions are projected to face more intense and prolonged droughts under SSP5-8.5, emphasizing increased metrological stress. These findings highlight SPI-12 as the most reliable tool for monitoring long-term drought impacts on water resources, while supporting a multi-index approach for adaptive water management. The study underscores the urgency of transitioning to moderate emission scenarios like SSP2-4.5 and integrating advanced drought monitoring systems to strengthen preparedness in climate-vulnerable regions. |
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| ISSN: | 3004-9261 |