Deep learning based reconstructions of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation confirm twenty-first century decline
Gaining knowledge of the past and present variations of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is crucial for the development of accurate future climate projections. The short range covered by direct AMOC observations, inconsistent paleoclimate records, and scattered hydrographic dat...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
IOP Publishing
2025-01-01
|
| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/add7f0 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1849309515447533568 |
|---|---|
| author | Simon L L Michel Henk A Dijkstra Francesco Guardamagna Valérian Jacques-Dumas René M van Westen Anna S von der Heydt |
| author_facet | Simon L L Michel Henk A Dijkstra Francesco Guardamagna Valérian Jacques-Dumas René M van Westen Anna S von der Heydt |
| author_sort | Simon L L Michel |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Gaining knowledge of the past and present variations of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is crucial for the development of accurate future climate projections. The short range covered by direct AMOC observations, inconsistent paleoclimate records, and scattered hydrographic data are insufficient to realistically reconstruct the AMOC strength since 1900. An AMOC proxy index based on sea surface temperatures suggests that the AMOC has declined by 15% since the late 19th century but this index received extensive scientific criticism. Here, we use a deep learning algorithm and climate model simulations to accurately reconstruct the AMOC strength between 20° N and 60° N since 1900. In contrast with the existing indices, our reconstructions are well in agreement with AMOC strength variations simulated by climate models and direct observations at 26.5° N. Our novel set of AMOC reconstructions contribute to a larger confidence in 21st century AMOC decline projections from climate models. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-82f27fa0727b4b11b052a989c2f28221 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-82f27fa0727b4b11b052a989c2f282212025-08-20T03:54:07ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262025-01-0120606403610.1088/1748-9326/add7f0Deep learning based reconstructions of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation confirm twenty-first century declineSimon L L Michel0https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5709-4755Henk A Dijkstra1https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5817-7675Francesco Guardamagna2https://orcid.org/0009-0002-9501-9208Valérian Jacques-Dumas3https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8192-9051René M van Westen4https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8807-7269Anna S von der Heydt5https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5557-3282Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht (IMAU), Utrecht University , Utrecht, The Netherlands; Atmospheric Oceanic and Planetary Physics (AOPP), University of Oxford , Oxford, United KingdomInstitute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht (IMAU), Utrecht University , Utrecht, The NetherlandsInstitute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht (IMAU), Utrecht University , Utrecht, The NetherlandsInstitute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht (IMAU), Utrecht University , Utrecht, The NetherlandsInstitute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht (IMAU), Utrecht University , Utrecht, The NetherlandsInstitute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht (IMAU), Utrecht University , Utrecht, The NetherlandsGaining knowledge of the past and present variations of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is crucial for the development of accurate future climate projections. The short range covered by direct AMOC observations, inconsistent paleoclimate records, and scattered hydrographic data are insufficient to realistically reconstruct the AMOC strength since 1900. An AMOC proxy index based on sea surface temperatures suggests that the AMOC has declined by 15% since the late 19th century but this index received extensive scientific criticism. Here, we use a deep learning algorithm and climate model simulations to accurately reconstruct the AMOC strength between 20° N and 60° N since 1900. In contrast with the existing indices, our reconstructions are well in agreement with AMOC strength variations simulated by climate models and direct observations at 26.5° N. Our novel set of AMOC reconstructions contribute to a larger confidence in 21st century AMOC decline projections from climate models.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/add7f0AMOC reconstructionmachine learningclimate models validation |
| spellingShingle | Simon L L Michel Henk A Dijkstra Francesco Guardamagna Valérian Jacques-Dumas René M van Westen Anna S von der Heydt Deep learning based reconstructions of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation confirm twenty-first century decline Environmental Research Letters AMOC reconstruction machine learning climate models validation |
| title | Deep learning based reconstructions of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation confirm twenty-first century decline |
| title_full | Deep learning based reconstructions of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation confirm twenty-first century decline |
| title_fullStr | Deep learning based reconstructions of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation confirm twenty-first century decline |
| title_full_unstemmed | Deep learning based reconstructions of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation confirm twenty-first century decline |
| title_short | Deep learning based reconstructions of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation confirm twenty-first century decline |
| title_sort | deep learning based reconstructions of the atlantic meridional overturning circulation confirm twenty first century decline |
| topic | AMOC reconstruction machine learning climate models validation |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/add7f0 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT simonllmichel deeplearningbasedreconstructionsoftheatlanticmeridionaloverturningcirculationconfirmtwentyfirstcenturydecline AT henkadijkstra deeplearningbasedreconstructionsoftheatlanticmeridionaloverturningcirculationconfirmtwentyfirstcenturydecline AT francescoguardamagna deeplearningbasedreconstructionsoftheatlanticmeridionaloverturningcirculationconfirmtwentyfirstcenturydecline AT valerianjacquesdumas deeplearningbasedreconstructionsoftheatlanticmeridionaloverturningcirculationconfirmtwentyfirstcenturydecline AT renemvanwesten deeplearningbasedreconstructionsoftheatlanticmeridionaloverturningcirculationconfirmtwentyfirstcenturydecline AT annasvonderheydt deeplearningbasedreconstructionsoftheatlanticmeridionaloverturningcirculationconfirmtwentyfirstcenturydecline |