Development of Downscaled Climate Projections: A Case Study of the Red River Basin, South-Central U.S.
Climate models provide information that resource managers, policy makers, and researchers can use when planning for the future. While this information is valuable in the broad sense, the low spatial-resolution often lacks local details that resource managers and decision makers need to plan for thei...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2019-01-01
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| Series: | Advances in Meteorology |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2019/4702139 |
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| author | Darrian Bertrand Renee A. McPherson |
| author_facet | Darrian Bertrand Renee A. McPherson |
| author_sort | Darrian Bertrand |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Climate models provide information that resource managers, policy makers, and researchers can use when planning for the future. While this information is valuable in the broad sense, the low spatial-resolution often lacks local details that resource managers and decision makers need to plan for their communities. Therefore, statistically downscaled climate projections provide a high-resolution output and offer local information that is more beneficial than coarse-resolution global climate model output. In the Red River Basin, located in the south-central U.S., this detailed information is used to develop long-term water plans. This area is prone to drought conditions and heavy precipitation events, and studies have consistently estimated that this will continue in the future. This paper introduces a dataset of statistically downscaled climate projections of daily minimum and maximum temperature and daily precipitation that is a useful tool for studies regarding climatological and hydrological aspects in the region. The dataset was created using two quantile mapping techniques to downscale the CCSM4, MPI-ESM-LR, and MIROC5 model outputs to a 0.1-degree spatial resolution. Furthermore, we describe the added value of coproduction of knowledge between climate scientists and end users, or in this case impacts modelers and decision makers, for creating climate projections that can be used for climate risk assessments. A case study of the data’s development and application is provided, detecting the mean daily changes in temperature and precipitation through the end of the century in the Red River Basin for two representative concentration pathways. After applying the users’ inputs to develop the datasets, results for this example estimate an increase in mean daily precipitation in the eastern portion of the basin and as much as a 15% decline in the west by the end of the century. Furthermore, mean daily temperature is expected to rise across the entire basin in all scenarios by up to 6–7°C. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-82ea4ce3dfd54cf8a2d75979e43a9eb4 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1687-9309 1687-9317 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2019-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
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| series | Advances in Meteorology |
| spelling | doaj-art-82ea4ce3dfd54cf8a2d75979e43a9eb42025-02-03T01:11:44ZengWileyAdvances in Meteorology1687-93091687-93172019-01-01201910.1155/2019/47021394702139Development of Downscaled Climate Projections: A Case Study of the Red River Basin, South-Central U.S.Darrian Bertrand0Renee A. McPherson1Department of Geography and Environmental Sustainability, University of Oklahoma, Norman 73019, USADepartment of Geography and Environmental Sustainability, University of Oklahoma, Norman 73019, USAClimate models provide information that resource managers, policy makers, and researchers can use when planning for the future. While this information is valuable in the broad sense, the low spatial-resolution often lacks local details that resource managers and decision makers need to plan for their communities. Therefore, statistically downscaled climate projections provide a high-resolution output and offer local information that is more beneficial than coarse-resolution global climate model output. In the Red River Basin, located in the south-central U.S., this detailed information is used to develop long-term water plans. This area is prone to drought conditions and heavy precipitation events, and studies have consistently estimated that this will continue in the future. This paper introduces a dataset of statistically downscaled climate projections of daily minimum and maximum temperature and daily precipitation that is a useful tool for studies regarding climatological and hydrological aspects in the region. The dataset was created using two quantile mapping techniques to downscale the CCSM4, MPI-ESM-LR, and MIROC5 model outputs to a 0.1-degree spatial resolution. Furthermore, we describe the added value of coproduction of knowledge between climate scientists and end users, or in this case impacts modelers and decision makers, for creating climate projections that can be used for climate risk assessments. A case study of the data’s development and application is provided, detecting the mean daily changes in temperature and precipitation through the end of the century in the Red River Basin for two representative concentration pathways. After applying the users’ inputs to develop the datasets, results for this example estimate an increase in mean daily precipitation in the eastern portion of the basin and as much as a 15% decline in the west by the end of the century. Furthermore, mean daily temperature is expected to rise across the entire basin in all scenarios by up to 6–7°C.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2019/4702139 |
| spellingShingle | Darrian Bertrand Renee A. McPherson Development of Downscaled Climate Projections: A Case Study of the Red River Basin, South-Central U.S. Advances in Meteorology |
| title | Development of Downscaled Climate Projections: A Case Study of the Red River Basin, South-Central U.S. |
| title_full | Development of Downscaled Climate Projections: A Case Study of the Red River Basin, South-Central U.S. |
| title_fullStr | Development of Downscaled Climate Projections: A Case Study of the Red River Basin, South-Central U.S. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Development of Downscaled Climate Projections: A Case Study of the Red River Basin, South-Central U.S. |
| title_short | Development of Downscaled Climate Projections: A Case Study of the Red River Basin, South-Central U.S. |
| title_sort | development of downscaled climate projections a case study of the red river basin south central u s |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2019/4702139 |
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