Multi-fold increase in rainforest tipping risk beyond 1.5–2 °C warming
<p>Tropical rainforests rely on their root systems to access moisture stored in soil during wet periods for use during dry periods. When this root zone soil moisture is inadequate to sustain a forest ecosystem, they transition to a savanna-like state, losing their native structure and function...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2024-12-01
|
| Series: | Earth System Dynamics |
| Online Access: | https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/15/1543/2024/esd-15-1543-2024.pdf |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1850177013246066688 |
|---|---|
| author | C. Singh C. Singh C. Singh R. van der Ent I. Fetzer I. Fetzer I. Fetzer L. Wang-Erlandsson L. Wang-Erlandsson L. Wang-Erlandsson |
| author_facet | C. Singh C. Singh C. Singh R. van der Ent I. Fetzer I. Fetzer I. Fetzer L. Wang-Erlandsson L. Wang-Erlandsson L. Wang-Erlandsson |
| author_sort | C. Singh |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>Tropical rainforests rely on their root systems to access moisture stored in soil during wet periods for use during dry periods. When this root zone soil moisture is inadequate to sustain a forest ecosystem, they transition to a savanna-like state, losing their native structure and functions. Yet the influence of climate change on ecosystem's root zone soil moisture storage and the impact on rainforest ecosystems remain uncertain. This study assesses the future state of rainforests and the risk of forest-to-savanna transitions in South America and Africa under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). Using a mass-balance-based empirical understanding of root zone storage capacity (<span class="inline-formula"><i>S</i><sub>r</sub></span>), defined as the maximum volume of root zone soil moisture per unit area accessible to vegetation's roots for transpiration, we project how rainforest ecosystems will respond to future climate changes. We find that under the end-of-the-21st-century climate, nearly one-third of the total forest area will be influenced by climate change. As the climate warms, forests will require a larger <span class="inline-formula"><i>S</i><sub>r</sub></span> than they do under the current climate to sustain their ecosystem structure and functions, making them more susceptible to water limitations. Furthermore, warming beyond 1.5–2 °C will significantly elevate the risk of a forest–savanna transition. In the Amazon, the forest area at risk of such a transition grows by about 1.7–5.8 times in size compared to the immediate lower-warming scenario (e.g. SSP2-4.5 compared to SSP1-2.6). In contrast, the risk growth in the Congo is less substantial, ranging from 0.7–1.7 times. These insights underscore the urgent need to limit the rise in global surface temperature below the Paris Agreement to conserve rainforest ecosystems and associated ecosystem services.</p> |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-822b21d5b2d1468885bbd3e560fb9384 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2190-4979 2190-4987 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Earth System Dynamics |
| spelling | doaj-art-822b21d5b2d1468885bbd3e560fb93842025-08-20T02:19:07ZengCopernicus PublicationsEarth System Dynamics2190-49792190-49872024-12-01151543156510.5194/esd-15-1543-2024Multi-fold increase in rainforest tipping risk beyond 1.5–2 °C warmingC. Singh0C. Singh1C. Singh2R. van der Ent3I. Fetzer4I. Fetzer5I. Fetzer6L. Wang-Erlandsson7L. Wang-Erlandsson8L. Wang-Erlandsson9Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, SwedenBolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, SwedenDepartment of Space, Earth and Environment, Chalmers University of Technology, Gothenburg, SwedenDepartment of Water Management, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, Delft, the NetherlandsStockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, SwedenBolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, SwedenPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, GermanyStockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, SwedenBolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, SwedenPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany<p>Tropical rainforests rely on their root systems to access moisture stored in soil during wet periods for use during dry periods. When this root zone soil moisture is inadequate to sustain a forest ecosystem, they transition to a savanna-like state, losing their native structure and functions. Yet the influence of climate change on ecosystem's root zone soil moisture storage and the impact on rainforest ecosystems remain uncertain. This study assesses the future state of rainforests and the risk of forest-to-savanna transitions in South America and Africa under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). Using a mass-balance-based empirical understanding of root zone storage capacity (<span class="inline-formula"><i>S</i><sub>r</sub></span>), defined as the maximum volume of root zone soil moisture per unit area accessible to vegetation's roots for transpiration, we project how rainforest ecosystems will respond to future climate changes. We find that under the end-of-the-21st-century climate, nearly one-third of the total forest area will be influenced by climate change. As the climate warms, forests will require a larger <span class="inline-formula"><i>S</i><sub>r</sub></span> than they do under the current climate to sustain their ecosystem structure and functions, making them more susceptible to water limitations. Furthermore, warming beyond 1.5–2 °C will significantly elevate the risk of a forest–savanna transition. In the Amazon, the forest area at risk of such a transition grows by about 1.7–5.8 times in size compared to the immediate lower-warming scenario (e.g. SSP2-4.5 compared to SSP1-2.6). In contrast, the risk growth in the Congo is less substantial, ranging from 0.7–1.7 times. These insights underscore the urgent need to limit the rise in global surface temperature below the Paris Agreement to conserve rainforest ecosystems and associated ecosystem services.</p>https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/15/1543/2024/esd-15-1543-2024.pdf |
| spellingShingle | C. Singh C. Singh C. Singh R. van der Ent I. Fetzer I. Fetzer I. Fetzer L. Wang-Erlandsson L. Wang-Erlandsson L. Wang-Erlandsson Multi-fold increase in rainforest tipping risk beyond 1.5–2 °C warming Earth System Dynamics |
| title | Multi-fold increase in rainforest tipping risk beyond 1.5–2 °C warming |
| title_full | Multi-fold increase in rainforest tipping risk beyond 1.5–2 °C warming |
| title_fullStr | Multi-fold increase in rainforest tipping risk beyond 1.5–2 °C warming |
| title_full_unstemmed | Multi-fold increase in rainforest tipping risk beyond 1.5–2 °C warming |
| title_short | Multi-fold increase in rainforest tipping risk beyond 1.5–2 °C warming |
| title_sort | multi fold increase in rainforest tipping risk beyond 1 5 2 thinsp °c warming |
| url | https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/15/1543/2024/esd-15-1543-2024.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT csingh multifoldincreaseinrainforesttippingriskbeyond152thinspcwarming AT csingh multifoldincreaseinrainforesttippingriskbeyond152thinspcwarming AT csingh multifoldincreaseinrainforesttippingriskbeyond152thinspcwarming AT rvanderent multifoldincreaseinrainforesttippingriskbeyond152thinspcwarming AT ifetzer multifoldincreaseinrainforesttippingriskbeyond152thinspcwarming AT ifetzer multifoldincreaseinrainforesttippingriskbeyond152thinspcwarming AT ifetzer multifoldincreaseinrainforesttippingriskbeyond152thinspcwarming AT lwangerlandsson multifoldincreaseinrainforesttippingriskbeyond152thinspcwarming AT lwangerlandsson multifoldincreaseinrainforesttippingriskbeyond152thinspcwarming AT lwangerlandsson multifoldincreaseinrainforesttippingriskbeyond152thinspcwarming |