Airline Overbooking Problem with Uncertain No-Shows
This paper considers an airline overbooking problem of a new single-leg flight with discount fare. Due to the absence of historical data of no-shows for a new flight, and various uncertain human behaviors or unexpected events which causes that a few passengers cannot board their aircraft on time, we...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2014-01-01
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| Series: | Journal of Applied Mathematics |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/304217 |
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| _version_ | 1832548615834304512 |
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| author | Chunxiao Zhang Congrong Guo Shenghui Yi |
| author_facet | Chunxiao Zhang Congrong Guo Shenghui Yi |
| author_sort | Chunxiao Zhang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This paper considers an airline overbooking problem of a new single-leg flight with discount fare. Due to the absence of historical data of no-shows for a new flight, and various uncertain human behaviors or unexpected events which causes that a few passengers cannot board their aircraft on time, we fail to obtain the probability distribution of no-shows. In this case, the airlines have to invite some domain experts to provide belief degree of no-shows to estimate its distribution. However, human beings often overestimate unlikely events, which makes the variance of belief degree much greater than that of the frequency. If we still regard the belief degree as a subjective probability, the derived results will exceed our expectations. In order to deal with this uncertainty, the number of no-shows of new flight is assumed to be an uncertain variable in this paper. Given the chance constraint of social reputation, an overbooking model with discount fares is developed to maximize the profit rate based on uncertain programming theory. Finally, the analytic expression of the optimal booking limit is obtained through a numerical example, and the results of sensitivity analysis indicate that the optimal booking limit is affected by flight capacity, discount, confidence level, and parameters of the uncertainty distribution significantly. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-81c5852e87244a2388aa6369e58edd67 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1110-757X 1687-0042 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2014-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Applied Mathematics |
| spelling | doaj-art-81c5852e87244a2388aa6369e58edd672025-02-03T06:13:37ZengWileyJournal of Applied Mathematics1110-757X1687-00422014-01-01201410.1155/2014/304217304217Airline Overbooking Problem with Uncertain No-ShowsChunxiao Zhang0Congrong Guo1Shenghui Yi2Tianjin Key Laboratory for Civil Aircraft Airworthiness and Maintenance, Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin 300300, ChinaCollege of Science, Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin 300300, ChinaCollege of Science, Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin 300300, ChinaThis paper considers an airline overbooking problem of a new single-leg flight with discount fare. Due to the absence of historical data of no-shows for a new flight, and various uncertain human behaviors or unexpected events which causes that a few passengers cannot board their aircraft on time, we fail to obtain the probability distribution of no-shows. In this case, the airlines have to invite some domain experts to provide belief degree of no-shows to estimate its distribution. However, human beings often overestimate unlikely events, which makes the variance of belief degree much greater than that of the frequency. If we still regard the belief degree as a subjective probability, the derived results will exceed our expectations. In order to deal with this uncertainty, the number of no-shows of new flight is assumed to be an uncertain variable in this paper. Given the chance constraint of social reputation, an overbooking model with discount fares is developed to maximize the profit rate based on uncertain programming theory. Finally, the analytic expression of the optimal booking limit is obtained through a numerical example, and the results of sensitivity analysis indicate that the optimal booking limit is affected by flight capacity, discount, confidence level, and parameters of the uncertainty distribution significantly.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/304217 |
| spellingShingle | Chunxiao Zhang Congrong Guo Shenghui Yi Airline Overbooking Problem with Uncertain No-Shows Journal of Applied Mathematics |
| title | Airline Overbooking Problem with Uncertain No-Shows |
| title_full | Airline Overbooking Problem with Uncertain No-Shows |
| title_fullStr | Airline Overbooking Problem with Uncertain No-Shows |
| title_full_unstemmed | Airline Overbooking Problem with Uncertain No-Shows |
| title_short | Airline Overbooking Problem with Uncertain No-Shows |
| title_sort | airline overbooking problem with uncertain no shows |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/304217 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT chunxiaozhang airlineoverbookingproblemwithuncertainnoshows AT congrongguo airlineoverbookingproblemwithuncertainnoshows AT shenghuiyi airlineoverbookingproblemwithuncertainnoshows |