Study on Fractal Multistep Forecast for the Prediction of Driving Behavior

The application and development of new technology make it possible to acquire real-time data of vehicles. Based on these real-time data, the behavior of vehicles can be analyzed. The prediction of vehicle behavior provides data support for the fine management of traffic. This paper proposes speed an...

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Main Authors: Longhai Yang, Hong Xu, Xiqiao Zhang, Shuai Li, Wenchao Ji
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2020-01-01
Series:Journal of Advanced Transportation
Online Access:http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/9150583
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author Longhai Yang
Hong Xu
Xiqiao Zhang
Shuai Li
Wenchao Ji
author_facet Longhai Yang
Hong Xu
Xiqiao Zhang
Shuai Li
Wenchao Ji
author_sort Longhai Yang
collection DOAJ
description The application and development of new technology make it possible to acquire real-time data of vehicles. Based on these real-time data, the behavior of vehicles can be analyzed. The prediction of vehicle behavior provides data support for the fine management of traffic. This paper proposes speed and acceleration have fractal features by R/S analysis of the time series data of speed and acceleration. Based on the characteristic analysis of microscopic parameters, the characteristic indexes of parameters are quantified, the fractal multistep prediction model of microparameters is established, and the BP (back propagation neural networks) model is established to estimate predictable step of fractal prediction model. The fractal multistep prediction model is used to predict speed acceleration in the predictable step. NGSIM trajectory data are used to test the multistep prediction model. The results show that the proposed fractal multistep prediction model can effectively realize the multistep prediction of vehicle speed.
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publishDate 2020-01-01
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spelling doaj-art-81816efba7b649c5afb4fbb679d0b9e92025-08-20T02:08:27ZengWileyJournal of Advanced Transportation0197-67292042-31952020-01-01202010.1155/2020/91505839150583Study on Fractal Multistep Forecast for the Prediction of Driving BehaviorLonghai Yang0Hong Xu1Xiqiao Zhang2Shuai Li3Wenchao Ji4School of Transportation Science and Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150090, Heilong Jiang Province, ChinaSchool of Transportation Science and Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150090, Heilong Jiang Province, ChinaSchool of Transportation Science and Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150090, Heilong Jiang Province, ChinaSchool of Transportation Science and Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150090, Heilong Jiang Province, ChinaSchool of Transportation Science and Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150090, Heilong Jiang Province, ChinaThe application and development of new technology make it possible to acquire real-time data of vehicles. Based on these real-time data, the behavior of vehicles can be analyzed. The prediction of vehicle behavior provides data support for the fine management of traffic. This paper proposes speed and acceleration have fractal features by R/S analysis of the time series data of speed and acceleration. Based on the characteristic analysis of microscopic parameters, the characteristic indexes of parameters are quantified, the fractal multistep prediction model of microparameters is established, and the BP (back propagation neural networks) model is established to estimate predictable step of fractal prediction model. The fractal multistep prediction model is used to predict speed acceleration in the predictable step. NGSIM trajectory data are used to test the multistep prediction model. The results show that the proposed fractal multistep prediction model can effectively realize the multistep prediction of vehicle speed.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/9150583
spellingShingle Longhai Yang
Hong Xu
Xiqiao Zhang
Shuai Li
Wenchao Ji
Study on Fractal Multistep Forecast for the Prediction of Driving Behavior
Journal of Advanced Transportation
title Study on Fractal Multistep Forecast for the Prediction of Driving Behavior
title_full Study on Fractal Multistep Forecast for the Prediction of Driving Behavior
title_fullStr Study on Fractal Multistep Forecast for the Prediction of Driving Behavior
title_full_unstemmed Study on Fractal Multistep Forecast for the Prediction of Driving Behavior
title_short Study on Fractal Multistep Forecast for the Prediction of Driving Behavior
title_sort study on fractal multistep forecast for the prediction of driving behavior
url http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/9150583
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AT xiqiaozhang studyonfractalmultistepforecastforthepredictionofdrivingbehavior
AT shuaili studyonfractalmultistepforecastforthepredictionofdrivingbehavior
AT wenchaoji studyonfractalmultistepforecastforthepredictionofdrivingbehavior