Forecasting Roof Tiles Production with Comparison of SMA and DMA Methods Based on n-th Ordo 2 and 4
This research aims to predict roof tile production trends at one of the roof tile companies in Kebumen to assist company management in determining and providing management recommendations for the tile production that occurs. A comparison of Single Moving Average (SMA) and Double Moving Average (DMA)...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Universitas Muhammadiyah Mataram
2024-07-01
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| Series: | JTAM (Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika) |
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| Online Access: | http://journal.ummat.ac.id/index.php/jtam/article/view/22225 |
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| _version_ | 1846166490545389568 |
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| author | Mesra Betty Yel Tundo Tundo Veri Arinal |
| author_facet | Mesra Betty Yel Tundo Tundo Veri Arinal |
| author_sort | Mesra Betty Yel |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This research aims to predict roof tile production trends at one of the roof tile companies in Kebumen to assist company management in determining and providing management recommendations for the tile production that occurs. A comparison of Single Moving Average (SMA) and Double Moving Average (DMA) Forecasting methods was used to better accommodate trends in roof tile production data optimally. Where the forecast is presented for several steps ahead, and is equipped with a value measuring the accuracy of the forecast using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), on roof tile production transaction data over 60 months, namely January-December 2019 to January-December 2023 to produce a monthly forecast for predicting roof tile production with n-th ordo 2 and 4. The total sample of training data processed was 1,415,987 records which were roof tile production transaction data, as well as data in January 2024 as test data (to test the accuracy of the forecast). The results of testing the forecast results produced a MAPE calculation of 6.6% for SMA with n-th ordo 2, while for n-th ordo 4 it was 7.2%. The MAPE value for DMA is 6.3% for n-th ordo 2, while for n-th ordo 4 it is 8.2%, which means the accuracy level is very good, namely above 90%. Based on the MAPE results obtained, the DMA method with n-th ordo 2 is a suitable method for carrying out periodic forecasting for roof tile companies in carrying out the production process to maintain stability and avoid unexpected events. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-813abab2db8242d9bb48a1cd4c2fa78b |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2597-7512 2614-1175 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-07-01 |
| publisher | Universitas Muhammadiyah Mataram |
| record_format | Article |
| series | JTAM (Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika) |
| spelling | doaj-art-813abab2db8242d9bb48a1cd4c2fa78b2024-11-15T16:19:27ZengUniversitas Muhammadiyah MataramJTAM (Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika)2597-75122614-11752024-07-018366767910.31764/jtam.v8i3.222259501Forecasting Roof Tiles Production with Comparison of SMA and DMA Methods Based on n-th Ordo 2 and 4Mesra Betty Yel0Tundo Tundo1Veri Arinal2Departement of Computer Science, STIKOM CKIDepartement of Computer Science, STIKOM CKIDepartement of Computer Science, STIKOM CKIThis research aims to predict roof tile production trends at one of the roof tile companies in Kebumen to assist company management in determining and providing management recommendations for the tile production that occurs. A comparison of Single Moving Average (SMA) and Double Moving Average (DMA) Forecasting methods was used to better accommodate trends in roof tile production data optimally. Where the forecast is presented for several steps ahead, and is equipped with a value measuring the accuracy of the forecast using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), on roof tile production transaction data over 60 months, namely January-December 2019 to January-December 2023 to produce a monthly forecast for predicting roof tile production with n-th ordo 2 and 4. The total sample of training data processed was 1,415,987 records which were roof tile production transaction data, as well as data in January 2024 as test data (to test the accuracy of the forecast). The results of testing the forecast results produced a MAPE calculation of 6.6% for SMA with n-th ordo 2, while for n-th ordo 4 it was 7.2%. The MAPE value for DMA is 6.3% for n-th ordo 2, while for n-th ordo 4 it is 8.2%, which means the accuracy level is very good, namely above 90%. Based on the MAPE results obtained, the DMA method with n-th ordo 2 is a suitable method for carrying out periodic forecasting for roof tile companies in carrying out the production process to maintain stability and avoid unexpected events.http://journal.ummat.ac.id/index.php/jtam/article/view/22225forecastingdouble moving averageroof tilesingle moving averagemean absolute percentage error. |
| spellingShingle | Mesra Betty Yel Tundo Tundo Veri Arinal Forecasting Roof Tiles Production with Comparison of SMA and DMA Methods Based on n-th Ordo 2 and 4 JTAM (Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika) forecasting double moving average roof tile single moving average mean absolute percentage error. |
| title | Forecasting Roof Tiles Production with Comparison of SMA and DMA Methods Based on n-th Ordo 2 and 4 |
| title_full | Forecasting Roof Tiles Production with Comparison of SMA and DMA Methods Based on n-th Ordo 2 and 4 |
| title_fullStr | Forecasting Roof Tiles Production with Comparison of SMA and DMA Methods Based on n-th Ordo 2 and 4 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Forecasting Roof Tiles Production with Comparison of SMA and DMA Methods Based on n-th Ordo 2 and 4 |
| title_short | Forecasting Roof Tiles Production with Comparison of SMA and DMA Methods Based on n-th Ordo 2 and 4 |
| title_sort | forecasting roof tiles production with comparison of sma and dma methods based on n th ordo 2 and 4 |
| topic | forecasting double moving average roof tile single moving average mean absolute percentage error. |
| url | http://journal.ummat.ac.id/index.php/jtam/article/view/22225 |
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