Land Use Modeling and Predicted Ecosystem Service Value Under Different Development Scenarios: A Case Study of the Upper–Middle Yellow River Basin, China

Exploring the future ecosystem service value (<i>ESV</i>) of the upper–middle Yellow River Basin is of great significance to enhancing its ecological security and capacity. This is in response to the strategy for the ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River...

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Main Authors: Mingwei Ma, Yuhuai He, Yanwei Sun, Huijuan Cui, Hongfei Zang
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2025-01-01
Series:Land
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Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/14/1/115
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author Mingwei Ma
Yuhuai He
Yanwei Sun
Huijuan Cui
Hongfei Zang
author_facet Mingwei Ma
Yuhuai He
Yanwei Sun
Huijuan Cui
Hongfei Zang
author_sort Mingwei Ma
collection DOAJ
description Exploring the future ecosystem service value (<i>ESV</i>) of the upper–middle Yellow River Basin is of great significance to enhancing its ecological security and capacity. This is in response to the strategy for the ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin. In this study, the land use change from 2000 to 2020 was analyzed quantitatively. The land use pattern in 2035 was predicted using Cellular Automata and Markov models under business as usual (BAU), ecological protection (EPS), and high urbanization (HUS) scenarios. The future <i>ESV</i> was estimated and the impact of land use changes on the regional <i>ESV</i> was identified. The results indicate that the study area experienced a reduction (~12,139 km<sup>2</sup>) in cultivation and an expansion (~10,597 km<sup>2</sup>) of built-up land from 2000 to 2020. In 2035, under the BAU scenario, the area of construction land and water would expand by 24.52% and 11.51%, respectively, while the area of grassland and unused land would decrease by 18,520 km<sup>2</sup> and 2770 km<sup>2</sup>, respectively. Under the EPS scenario, the area of forests, grasslands, and water would increase by 16.57%, 10.59%, and 4%, respectively. Under three different scenarios, the regional <i>ESV</i>s are estimated at from CNY 2475 to 2710 billion, while grasslands contribute the largest part accounting for from 57.98% to 59.21%. These findings could help to guide land development and protection through regional ecological construction.
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spelling doaj-art-80cd422252544f09977f5de882116b422025-01-24T13:37:58ZengMDPI AGLand2073-445X2025-01-0114111510.3390/land14010115Land Use Modeling and Predicted Ecosystem Service Value Under Different Development Scenarios: A Case Study of the Upper–Middle Yellow River Basin, ChinaMingwei Ma0Yuhuai He1Yanwei Sun2Huijuan Cui3Hongfei Zang4College of Water Resources, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450046, ChinaCollege of Water Resources, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450046, ChinaCollege of Water Resources, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450046, ChinaKey Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, ChinaCollege of Water Resources, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450046, ChinaExploring the future ecosystem service value (<i>ESV</i>) of the upper–middle Yellow River Basin is of great significance to enhancing its ecological security and capacity. This is in response to the strategy for the ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin. In this study, the land use change from 2000 to 2020 was analyzed quantitatively. The land use pattern in 2035 was predicted using Cellular Automata and Markov models under business as usual (BAU), ecological protection (EPS), and high urbanization (HUS) scenarios. The future <i>ESV</i> was estimated and the impact of land use changes on the regional <i>ESV</i> was identified. The results indicate that the study area experienced a reduction (~12,139 km<sup>2</sup>) in cultivation and an expansion (~10,597 km<sup>2</sup>) of built-up land from 2000 to 2020. In 2035, under the BAU scenario, the area of construction land and water would expand by 24.52% and 11.51%, respectively, while the area of grassland and unused land would decrease by 18,520 km<sup>2</sup> and 2770 km<sup>2</sup>, respectively. Under the EPS scenario, the area of forests, grasslands, and water would increase by 16.57%, 10.59%, and 4%, respectively. Under three different scenarios, the regional <i>ESV</i>s are estimated at from CNY 2475 to 2710 billion, while grasslands contribute the largest part accounting for from 57.98% to 59.21%. These findings could help to guide land development and protection through regional ecological construction.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/14/1/115land use changeCA–Markov modelecosystem service valuemulti-scenario simulationYellow River Basin
spellingShingle Mingwei Ma
Yuhuai He
Yanwei Sun
Huijuan Cui
Hongfei Zang
Land Use Modeling and Predicted Ecosystem Service Value Under Different Development Scenarios: A Case Study of the Upper–Middle Yellow River Basin, China
Land
land use change
CA–Markov model
ecosystem service value
multi-scenario simulation
Yellow River Basin
title Land Use Modeling and Predicted Ecosystem Service Value Under Different Development Scenarios: A Case Study of the Upper–Middle Yellow River Basin, China
title_full Land Use Modeling and Predicted Ecosystem Service Value Under Different Development Scenarios: A Case Study of the Upper–Middle Yellow River Basin, China
title_fullStr Land Use Modeling and Predicted Ecosystem Service Value Under Different Development Scenarios: A Case Study of the Upper–Middle Yellow River Basin, China
title_full_unstemmed Land Use Modeling and Predicted Ecosystem Service Value Under Different Development Scenarios: A Case Study of the Upper–Middle Yellow River Basin, China
title_short Land Use Modeling and Predicted Ecosystem Service Value Under Different Development Scenarios: A Case Study of the Upper–Middle Yellow River Basin, China
title_sort land use modeling and predicted ecosystem service value under different development scenarios a case study of the upper middle yellow river basin china
topic land use change
CA–Markov model
ecosystem service value
multi-scenario simulation
Yellow River Basin
url https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/14/1/115
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