Land Use Modeling and Predicted Ecosystem Service Value Under Different Development Scenarios: A Case Study of the Upper–Middle Yellow River Basin, China
Exploring the future ecosystem service value (<i>ESV</i>) of the upper–middle Yellow River Basin is of great significance to enhancing its ecological security and capacity. This is in response to the strategy for the ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Land |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/14/1/115 |
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| Summary: | Exploring the future ecosystem service value (<i>ESV</i>) of the upper–middle Yellow River Basin is of great significance to enhancing its ecological security and capacity. This is in response to the strategy for the ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin. In this study, the land use change from 2000 to 2020 was analyzed quantitatively. The land use pattern in 2035 was predicted using Cellular Automata and Markov models under business as usual (BAU), ecological protection (EPS), and high urbanization (HUS) scenarios. The future <i>ESV</i> was estimated and the impact of land use changes on the regional <i>ESV</i> was identified. The results indicate that the study area experienced a reduction (~12,139 km<sup>2</sup>) in cultivation and an expansion (~10,597 km<sup>2</sup>) of built-up land from 2000 to 2020. In 2035, under the BAU scenario, the area of construction land and water would expand by 24.52% and 11.51%, respectively, while the area of grassland and unused land would decrease by 18,520 km<sup>2</sup> and 2770 km<sup>2</sup>, respectively. Under the EPS scenario, the area of forests, grasslands, and water would increase by 16.57%, 10.59%, and 4%, respectively. Under three different scenarios, the regional <i>ESV</i>s are estimated at from CNY 2475 to 2710 billion, while grasslands contribute the largest part accounting for from 57.98% to 59.21%. These findings could help to guide land development and protection through regional ecological construction. |
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| ISSN: | 2073-445X |