Uncertainties in global permafrost area extent estimates from different methods
Previous permafrost extent estimates applied one or two methods to calculate the permafrost area, and the uncertainties between the methods were not assessed. Here, we apply seven methods to estimate and project global permafrost area extent and discuss the uncertainties of each approach. These meth...
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KeAi Communications Co., Ltd.
2025-04-01
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| Series: | Advances in Climate Change Research |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674927825000693 |
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| author | Xuan-Jia Li Xiao-Qing Peng Oliver W. Frauenfeld Guang-Shang Yang Wei-Wei Tian Yuan Huang Gang Wei Guan-Qun Chen Cui-Cui Mu Hao Sun |
| author_facet | Xuan-Jia Li Xiao-Qing Peng Oliver W. Frauenfeld Guang-Shang Yang Wei-Wei Tian Yuan Huang Gang Wei Guan-Qun Chen Cui-Cui Mu Hao Sun |
| author_sort | Xuan-Jia Li |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Previous permafrost extent estimates applied one or two methods to calculate the permafrost area, and the uncertainties between the methods were not assessed. Here, we apply seven methods to estimate and project global permafrost area extent and discuss the uncertainties of each approach. These methods are forced with output from CMIP6 and ERA5-Land, and we quantify the seven methods’ differences and uncertainties. During the historical period (1981–2010), the mean global permafrost area from multiple methods is 14.1 ± 4.5 × 106 km2, with differences ranging from 2.1% to 31.2%. The variability in future permafrost area extent degradation relative to the historical period based on different methods ranges from 1.8% to 34.7%. Uncertainties in permafrost area extent estimates can reach 35% based on different methods. Under various future emission pathways (e.g., SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5), the worst-case scenario (SSP5-8.5) projects a permafrost extent of only 1.3–8.2 × 106 km2 for 2070–2099, corresponding to area decreases of 51.2%–86.9%. Spatially, permafrost near the lower-latitude permafrost boundary may completely disappear by the end of the 21st century, while degradation in the circum-Arctic, Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, and Antarctica will be smaller, but still exceed 50% under the highest emission scenario (SSP5-8.5). Compared to the temperature distribution of existing permafrost maps, the temperature at top of permafrost model and the surface frost index using ground temperature adjusted for snow methods perform best. However, compared to in-situ boreholes, two generalized linear model approaches have the best overall accuracy. These uncertainties using different methods are important to recognize in assessments of the future state of permafrost degradation. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-80af7d7748ac4c83a25a0618dfc5fda4 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1674-9278 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-04-01 |
| publisher | KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. |
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| series | Advances in Climate Change Research |
| spelling | doaj-art-80af7d7748ac4c83a25a0618dfc5fda42025-08-20T02:37:39ZengKeAi Communications Co., Ltd.Advances in Climate Change Research1674-92782025-04-0116231232310.1016/j.accre.2025.03.008Uncertainties in global permafrost area extent estimates from different methodsXuan-Jia Li0Xiao-Qing Peng1Oliver W. Frauenfeld2Guang-Shang Yang3Wei-Wei Tian4Yuan Huang5Gang Wei6Guan-Qun Chen7Cui-Cui Mu8Hao Sun9Key Laboratory of Western China's Environmental Systems (Ministry of Education), College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, ChinaKey Laboratory of Western China's Environmental Systems (Ministry of Education), College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China; Observation and Research Station on Eco-Environment of Frozen Ground in the Qilian Mountains, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China; Corresponding author. Key Laboratory of Western China's Environmental Systems (Ministry of Education), College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China.Department of Geography, Texas A&M University, College Station TX77843, USAKey Laboratory of Western China's Environmental Systems (Ministry of Education), College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, ChinaKey Laboratory of Western China's Environmental Systems (Ministry of Education), College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, ChinaKey Laboratory of Western China's Environmental Systems (Ministry of Education), College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, ChinaKey Laboratory of Western China's Environmental Systems (Ministry of Education), College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, ChinaKey Laboratory of Western China's Environmental Systems (Ministry of Education), College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, ChinaKey Laboratory of Western China's Environmental Systems (Ministry of Education), College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China; Observation and Research Station on Eco-Environment of Frozen Ground in the Qilian Mountains, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, ChinaQinghai Provincial General Geological and Environmental Monitoring Station (Qinghai Provincial Geological Disaster Prevention and Control Technical Guidance Center), Xining 810000, China; Corresponding author.Previous permafrost extent estimates applied one or two methods to calculate the permafrost area, and the uncertainties between the methods were not assessed. Here, we apply seven methods to estimate and project global permafrost area extent and discuss the uncertainties of each approach. These methods are forced with output from CMIP6 and ERA5-Land, and we quantify the seven methods’ differences and uncertainties. During the historical period (1981–2010), the mean global permafrost area from multiple methods is 14.1 ± 4.5 × 106 km2, with differences ranging from 2.1% to 31.2%. The variability in future permafrost area extent degradation relative to the historical period based on different methods ranges from 1.8% to 34.7%. Uncertainties in permafrost area extent estimates can reach 35% based on different methods. Under various future emission pathways (e.g., SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5), the worst-case scenario (SSP5-8.5) projects a permafrost extent of only 1.3–8.2 × 106 km2 for 2070–2099, corresponding to area decreases of 51.2%–86.9%. Spatially, permafrost near the lower-latitude permafrost boundary may completely disappear by the end of the 21st century, while degradation in the circum-Arctic, Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, and Antarctica will be smaller, but still exceed 50% under the highest emission scenario (SSP5-8.5). Compared to the temperature distribution of existing permafrost maps, the temperature at top of permafrost model and the surface frost index using ground temperature adjusted for snow methods perform best. However, compared to in-situ boreholes, two generalized linear model approaches have the best overall accuracy. These uncertainties using different methods are important to recognize in assessments of the future state of permafrost degradation.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674927825000693Permafrost degradationFuture projectionsMulti-model comparisonUncertainties |
| spellingShingle | Xuan-Jia Li Xiao-Qing Peng Oliver W. Frauenfeld Guang-Shang Yang Wei-Wei Tian Yuan Huang Gang Wei Guan-Qun Chen Cui-Cui Mu Hao Sun Uncertainties in global permafrost area extent estimates from different methods Advances in Climate Change Research Permafrost degradation Future projections Multi-model comparison Uncertainties |
| title | Uncertainties in global permafrost area extent estimates from different methods |
| title_full | Uncertainties in global permafrost area extent estimates from different methods |
| title_fullStr | Uncertainties in global permafrost area extent estimates from different methods |
| title_full_unstemmed | Uncertainties in global permafrost area extent estimates from different methods |
| title_short | Uncertainties in global permafrost area extent estimates from different methods |
| title_sort | uncertainties in global permafrost area extent estimates from different methods |
| topic | Permafrost degradation Future projections Multi-model comparison Uncertainties |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674927825000693 |
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