Data analytics approach for short- and long-term mortality prediction following acute non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) and Unstable Angina (UA) in Asians.

<h4>Background</h4>Traditional risk assessment tools often lack accuracy when predicting the short- and long-term mortality following a non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) or Unstable Angina (UA) in specific population.<h4>Objective</h4>To employ machine l...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Sazzli Kasim, Putri Nur Fatin Amir Rudin, Sorayya Malek, Firdaus Aziz, Wan Azman Wan Ahmad, Khairul Shafiq Ibrahim, Muhammad Hanis Muhmad Hamidi, Raja Ezman Raja Shariff, Alan Yean Yip Fong, Cheen Song
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2024-01-01
Series:PLoS ONE
Online Access:https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0298036&type=printable
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
_version_ 1850240507073003520
author Sazzli Kasim
Putri Nur Fatin Amir Rudin
Sorayya Malek
Firdaus Aziz
Wan Azman Wan Ahmad
Khairul Shafiq Ibrahim
Muhammad Hanis Muhmad Hamidi
Raja Ezman Raja Shariff
Alan Yean Yip Fong
Cheen Song
author_facet Sazzli Kasim
Putri Nur Fatin Amir Rudin
Sorayya Malek
Firdaus Aziz
Wan Azman Wan Ahmad
Khairul Shafiq Ibrahim
Muhammad Hanis Muhmad Hamidi
Raja Ezman Raja Shariff
Alan Yean Yip Fong
Cheen Song
author_sort Sazzli Kasim
collection DOAJ
description <h4>Background</h4>Traditional risk assessment tools often lack accuracy when predicting the short- and long-term mortality following a non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) or Unstable Angina (UA) in specific population.<h4>Objective</h4>To employ machine learning (ML) and stacked ensemble learning (EL) methods in predicting short- and long-term mortality in Asian patients diagnosed with NSTEMI/UA and to identify the associated features, subsequently evaluating these findings against established risk scores.<h4>Methods</h4>We analyzed data from the National Cardiovascular Disease Database for Malaysia (2006-2019), representing a diverse NSTEMI/UA Asian cohort. Algorithm development utilized in-hospital records of 9,518 patients, 30-day data from 7,133 patients, and 1-year data from 7,031 patients. This study utilized 39 features, including demographic, cardiovascular risk, medication, and clinical features. In the development of the stacked EL model, four base learner algorithms were employed: eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Naive Bayes (NB), and Random Forest (RF), with the Generalized Linear Model (GLM) serving as the meta learner. Significant features were chosen and ranked using ML feature importance with backward elimination. The predictive performance of the algorithms was assessed using the area under the curve (AUC) as a metric. Validation of the algorithms was conducted against the TIMI for NSTEMI/UA using a separate validation dataset, and the net reclassification index (NRI) was subsequently determined.<h4>Results</h4>Using both complete and reduced features, the algorithm performance achieved an AUC ranging from 0.73 to 0.89. The top-performing ML algorithm consistently surpassed the TIMI risk score for in-hospital, 30-day, and 1-year predictions (with AUC values of 0.88, 0.88, and 0.81, respectively, all p < 0.001), while the TIMI scores registered significantly lower at 0.55, 0.54, and 0.61. This suggests the TIMI score tends to underestimate patient mortality risk. The net reclassification index (NRI) of the best ML algorithm for NSTEMI/UA patients across these periods yielded an NRI between 40-60% (p < 0.001) relative to the TIMI NSTEMI/UA risk score. Key features identified for both short- and long-term mortality included age, Killip class, heart rate, and Low-Molecular-Weight Heparin (LMWH) administration.<h4>Conclusions</h4>In a broad multi-ethnic population, ML approaches outperformed conventional TIMI scoring in classifying patients with NSTEMI and UA. ML allows for the precise identification of unique characteristics within individual Asian populations, improving the accuracy of mortality predictions. Continuous development, testing, and validation of these ML algorithms holds the promise of enhanced risk stratification, thereby revolutionizing future management strategies and patient outcomes.
format Article
id doaj-art-80a78fb962ff4f83a03ae2024785de86
institution OA Journals
issn 1932-6203
language English
publishDate 2024-01-01
publisher Public Library of Science (PLoS)
record_format Article
series PLoS ONE
spelling doaj-art-80a78fb962ff4f83a03ae2024785de862025-08-20T02:00:51ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032024-01-01192e029803610.1371/journal.pone.0298036Data analytics approach for short- and long-term mortality prediction following acute non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) and Unstable Angina (UA) in Asians.Sazzli KasimPutri Nur Fatin Amir RudinSorayya MalekFirdaus AzizWan Azman Wan AhmadKhairul Shafiq IbrahimMuhammad Hanis Muhmad HamidiRaja Ezman Raja ShariffAlan Yean Yip FongCheen Song<h4>Background</h4>Traditional risk assessment tools often lack accuracy when predicting the short- and long-term mortality following a non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) or Unstable Angina (UA) in specific population.<h4>Objective</h4>To employ machine learning (ML) and stacked ensemble learning (EL) methods in predicting short- and long-term mortality in Asian patients diagnosed with NSTEMI/UA and to identify the associated features, subsequently evaluating these findings against established risk scores.<h4>Methods</h4>We analyzed data from the National Cardiovascular Disease Database for Malaysia (2006-2019), representing a diverse NSTEMI/UA Asian cohort. Algorithm development utilized in-hospital records of 9,518 patients, 30-day data from 7,133 patients, and 1-year data from 7,031 patients. This study utilized 39 features, including demographic, cardiovascular risk, medication, and clinical features. In the development of the stacked EL model, four base learner algorithms were employed: eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Naive Bayes (NB), and Random Forest (RF), with the Generalized Linear Model (GLM) serving as the meta learner. Significant features were chosen and ranked using ML feature importance with backward elimination. The predictive performance of the algorithms was assessed using the area under the curve (AUC) as a metric. Validation of the algorithms was conducted against the TIMI for NSTEMI/UA using a separate validation dataset, and the net reclassification index (NRI) was subsequently determined.<h4>Results</h4>Using both complete and reduced features, the algorithm performance achieved an AUC ranging from 0.73 to 0.89. The top-performing ML algorithm consistently surpassed the TIMI risk score for in-hospital, 30-day, and 1-year predictions (with AUC values of 0.88, 0.88, and 0.81, respectively, all p < 0.001), while the TIMI scores registered significantly lower at 0.55, 0.54, and 0.61. This suggests the TIMI score tends to underestimate patient mortality risk. The net reclassification index (NRI) of the best ML algorithm for NSTEMI/UA patients across these periods yielded an NRI between 40-60% (p < 0.001) relative to the TIMI NSTEMI/UA risk score. Key features identified for both short- and long-term mortality included age, Killip class, heart rate, and Low-Molecular-Weight Heparin (LMWH) administration.<h4>Conclusions</h4>In a broad multi-ethnic population, ML approaches outperformed conventional TIMI scoring in classifying patients with NSTEMI and UA. ML allows for the precise identification of unique characteristics within individual Asian populations, improving the accuracy of mortality predictions. Continuous development, testing, and validation of these ML algorithms holds the promise of enhanced risk stratification, thereby revolutionizing future management strategies and patient outcomes.https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0298036&type=printable
spellingShingle Sazzli Kasim
Putri Nur Fatin Amir Rudin
Sorayya Malek
Firdaus Aziz
Wan Azman Wan Ahmad
Khairul Shafiq Ibrahim
Muhammad Hanis Muhmad Hamidi
Raja Ezman Raja Shariff
Alan Yean Yip Fong
Cheen Song
Data analytics approach for short- and long-term mortality prediction following acute non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) and Unstable Angina (UA) in Asians.
PLoS ONE
title Data analytics approach for short- and long-term mortality prediction following acute non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) and Unstable Angina (UA) in Asians.
title_full Data analytics approach for short- and long-term mortality prediction following acute non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) and Unstable Angina (UA) in Asians.
title_fullStr Data analytics approach for short- and long-term mortality prediction following acute non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) and Unstable Angina (UA) in Asians.
title_full_unstemmed Data analytics approach for short- and long-term mortality prediction following acute non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) and Unstable Angina (UA) in Asians.
title_short Data analytics approach for short- and long-term mortality prediction following acute non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) and Unstable Angina (UA) in Asians.
title_sort data analytics approach for short and long term mortality prediction following acute non st elevation myocardial infarction nstemi and unstable angina ua in asians
url https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0298036&type=printable
work_keys_str_mv AT sazzlikasim dataanalyticsapproachforshortandlongtermmortalitypredictionfollowingacutenonstelevationmyocardialinfarctionnstemiandunstableanginauainasians
AT putrinurfatinamirrudin dataanalyticsapproachforshortandlongtermmortalitypredictionfollowingacutenonstelevationmyocardialinfarctionnstemiandunstableanginauainasians
AT sorayyamalek dataanalyticsapproachforshortandlongtermmortalitypredictionfollowingacutenonstelevationmyocardialinfarctionnstemiandunstableanginauainasians
AT firdausaziz dataanalyticsapproachforshortandlongtermmortalitypredictionfollowingacutenonstelevationmyocardialinfarctionnstemiandunstableanginauainasians
AT wanazmanwanahmad dataanalyticsapproachforshortandlongtermmortalitypredictionfollowingacutenonstelevationmyocardialinfarctionnstemiandunstableanginauainasians
AT khairulshafiqibrahim dataanalyticsapproachforshortandlongtermmortalitypredictionfollowingacutenonstelevationmyocardialinfarctionnstemiandunstableanginauainasians
AT muhammadhanismuhmadhamidi dataanalyticsapproachforshortandlongtermmortalitypredictionfollowingacutenonstelevationmyocardialinfarctionnstemiandunstableanginauainasians
AT rajaezmanrajashariff dataanalyticsapproachforshortandlongtermmortalitypredictionfollowingacutenonstelevationmyocardialinfarctionnstemiandunstableanginauainasians
AT alanyeanyipfong dataanalyticsapproachforshortandlongtermmortalitypredictionfollowingacutenonstelevationmyocardialinfarctionnstemiandunstableanginauainasians
AT cheensong dataanalyticsapproachforshortandlongtermmortalitypredictionfollowingacutenonstelevationmyocardialinfarctionnstemiandunstableanginauainasians