Predicting Multi-Scenario Land Use Changes and Soil Erosion in the Huaihe River Basin Based on Coupled PLUS-CSLE Model
[Objective] Understanding the future temporal and spatial evolution of land use and soil erosion in the Huaihe River Basin is of significant importance for rational and coordinated use of land resources, formulating future soil and water conservation strategies, and promoting sustainable development...
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Editorial Department of Journal of Soil and Water Conservation
2024-12-01
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| Series: | Shuitu Baochi Xuebao |
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| Online Access: | http://stbcxb.alljournal.com.cn/stbcxben/article/abstract/20240625 |
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| author | GUO Weiling XU Liuyang JIA Jiang GAO Chang XIA Xiaolin WANG Bangwen ZHANG Jingyu CHEN Lei CHEN Yingjian |
| author_facet | GUO Weiling XU Liuyang JIA Jiang GAO Chang XIA Xiaolin WANG Bangwen ZHANG Jingyu CHEN Lei CHEN Yingjian |
| author_sort | GUO Weiling |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | [Objective] Understanding the future temporal and spatial evolution of land use and soil erosion in the Huaihe River Basin is of significant importance for rational and coordinated use of land resources, formulating future soil and water conservation strategies, and promoting sustainable development strategies. [Methods] Based on the PLUS model and the Chinese Soil Loss Equation (CSLE), the land use patterns in the Huaihe River Basin under three scenarios—natural development, ecological protection, and rapid development—for the year 2030 were simulated, and the future soil erosion patterns in the basin under these three scenarios were predicted. [Results] (1) Under all three scenarios, there was a significant expansion of construction land, with a maximum expansion area of 187.80 km2, while other land types decreased to varying degrees. (2) The soil erosion intensity in the basin from 2015 to 2021 showed a downward-then-upward trend. The average soil erosion amounts were 221.96, 214.13 and 461.15 t/(km2·a), respectively. High-intensity erosion was mostly concentrated in the northeastern high-slope areas, which require special attention. (3) Geographic detectors indicate that slope, DEM, and soil properties were the main driving factors influencing the distribution of erosion in the basin. (4) In 2030, the soil erosion modulus under natural development, rapid development, and ecological protection scenarios were 295.48, 259.45 and 127.64 t/(km2·a), respectively. An ecological protection model with appropriate expansion of construction land can meet both ecological protection and economic development demands. [Conclusion] This study can provide insights for land use management and soil conservation measures within the basin and promote healthy development. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-8082762ad88e4068bf66c362e54e5b30 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1009-2242 |
| language | zho |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | Editorial Department of Journal of Soil and Water Conservation |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Shuitu Baochi Xuebao |
| spelling | doaj-art-8082762ad88e4068bf66c362e54e5b302025-02-10T07:24:20ZzhoEditorial Department of Journal of Soil and Water ConservationShuitu Baochi Xuebao1009-22422024-12-0138623424310.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2024.06.0191009-2242-(2024)06-0234-10Predicting Multi-Scenario Land Use Changes and Soil Erosion in the Huaihe River Basin Based on Coupled PLUS-CSLE ModelGUO Weiling0XU Liuyang1JIA Jiang2GAO Chang3XIA Xiaolin4WANG Bangwen5ZHANG Jingyu6CHEN Lei7CHEN Yingjian8School of Spatial Information and Surveying Engineering, Anhui University of Science and Technology, Huainan, Anhui 232001, ChinaSchool of Spatial Information and Surveying Engineering, Anhui University of Science and Technology, Huainan, Anhui 232001, ChinaSchool of Spatial Information and Surveying Engineering, Anhui University of Science and Technology, Huainan, Anhui 232001, ChinaSchool of Spatial Information and Surveying Engineering, Anhui University of Science and Technology, Huainan, Anhui 232001, ChinaAnhui and Huaihe River Institute of Hydraulic Research, Hefei 230088, ChinaAnhui and Huaihe River Institute of Hydraulic Research, Hefei 230088, ChinaAnhui and Huaihe River Institute of Hydraulic Research, Hefei 230088, ChinaAnhui and Huaihe River Institute of Hydraulic Research, Hefei 230088, ChinaAnhui and Huaihe River Institute of Hydraulic Research, Hefei 230088, China[Objective] Understanding the future temporal and spatial evolution of land use and soil erosion in the Huaihe River Basin is of significant importance for rational and coordinated use of land resources, formulating future soil and water conservation strategies, and promoting sustainable development strategies. [Methods] Based on the PLUS model and the Chinese Soil Loss Equation (CSLE), the land use patterns in the Huaihe River Basin under three scenarios—natural development, ecological protection, and rapid development—for the year 2030 were simulated, and the future soil erosion patterns in the basin under these three scenarios were predicted. [Results] (1) Under all three scenarios, there was a significant expansion of construction land, with a maximum expansion area of 187.80 km2, while other land types decreased to varying degrees. (2) The soil erosion intensity in the basin from 2015 to 2021 showed a downward-then-upward trend. The average soil erosion amounts were 221.96, 214.13 and 461.15 t/(km2·a), respectively. High-intensity erosion was mostly concentrated in the northeastern high-slope areas, which require special attention. (3) Geographic detectors indicate that slope, DEM, and soil properties were the main driving factors influencing the distribution of erosion in the basin. (4) In 2030, the soil erosion modulus under natural development, rapid development, and ecological protection scenarios were 295.48, 259.45 and 127.64 t/(km2·a), respectively. An ecological protection model with appropriate expansion of construction land can meet both ecological protection and economic development demands. [Conclusion] This study can provide insights for land use management and soil conservation measures within the basin and promote healthy development.http://stbcxb.alljournal.com.cn/stbcxben/article/abstract/20240625land use/cover changesoil erosion predictionplus modelcsle modelhuaihe river basin |
| spellingShingle | GUO Weiling XU Liuyang JIA Jiang GAO Chang XIA Xiaolin WANG Bangwen ZHANG Jingyu CHEN Lei CHEN Yingjian Predicting Multi-Scenario Land Use Changes and Soil Erosion in the Huaihe River Basin Based on Coupled PLUS-CSLE Model Shuitu Baochi Xuebao land use/cover change soil erosion prediction plus model csle model huaihe river basin |
| title | Predicting Multi-Scenario Land Use Changes and Soil Erosion in the Huaihe River Basin Based on Coupled PLUS-CSLE Model |
| title_full | Predicting Multi-Scenario Land Use Changes and Soil Erosion in the Huaihe River Basin Based on Coupled PLUS-CSLE Model |
| title_fullStr | Predicting Multi-Scenario Land Use Changes and Soil Erosion in the Huaihe River Basin Based on Coupled PLUS-CSLE Model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Predicting Multi-Scenario Land Use Changes and Soil Erosion in the Huaihe River Basin Based on Coupled PLUS-CSLE Model |
| title_short | Predicting Multi-Scenario Land Use Changes and Soil Erosion in the Huaihe River Basin Based on Coupled PLUS-CSLE Model |
| title_sort | predicting multi scenario land use changes and soil erosion in the huaihe river basin based on coupled plus csle model |
| topic | land use/cover change soil erosion prediction plus model csle model huaihe river basin |
| url | http://stbcxb.alljournal.com.cn/stbcxben/article/abstract/20240625 |
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