National Horizon Scanning for Future Crops Under a Changing UK Climate
ABSTRACT Most national assessments of climate change‐related risks to agriculture focus on the productivity of existing crops. However, one adaptation option is to switch to alternative crops better suited to changing local climates. Spatially explicit projections of relative climatic suitability ac...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2025-06-01
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| Series: | Climate Resilience and Sustainability |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/cli2.70007 |
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| author | John W. Redhead Matt Brown Jeff Price Emma Robinson Robert J. Nicholls Rachel Warren Richard F. Pywell |
| author_facet | John W. Redhead Matt Brown Jeff Price Emma Robinson Robert J. Nicholls Rachel Warren Richard F. Pywell |
| author_sort | John W. Redhead |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | ABSTRACT Most national assessments of climate change‐related risks to agriculture focus on the productivity of existing crops. However, one adaptation option is to switch to alternative crops better suited to changing local climates. Spatially explicit projections of relative climatic suitability across a wide range of crops can identify which ones might be viable alternatives. Parametrising process‐based models for multiple crops is complex, so there is value in using simpler approaches to ‘horizon scan’ to identify high‐level issues and target further research. We present a horizon scan approach based on EcoCrop data, producing mapped changes in suitability under +2°C and +4°C warming scenarios (above pre‐industrial), for over 160 crops across the United Kingdom. For the United Kingdom, climate change is likely to bring opportunities to diversify cropping systems. Many current and potential new crops show widespread increases in suitability under a +2°C warming scenario. However, under a +4°C scenario, several current crops (e.g. onions, strawberries, oats, wheat) begin to show declines in suitability in the region of the United Kingdom where most arable crops are currently grown. Whilst some new crops with increasing suitability may offer viable alternatives (e.g. soy, chickpea, grapes), the greatest average increases in suitability across crops occur outside the UK's current areas of greatest agricultural production. Realising these opportunities would thus be likely to require substantial changes to current farming systems and supply chains. By highlighting these opportunities and challenges, our approach provides potentially valuable information to farmers and national assessments. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-7ff171c181774c8d9d45fc0b30771a4b |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2692-4587 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-06-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Climate Resilience and Sustainability |
| spelling | doaj-art-7ff171c181774c8d9d45fc0b30771a4b2025-08-20T03:16:15ZengWileyClimate Resilience and Sustainability2692-45872025-06-0141n/an/a10.1002/cli2.70007National Horizon Scanning for Future Crops Under a Changing UK ClimateJohn W. Redhead0Matt Brown1Jeff Price2Emma Robinson3Robert J. Nicholls4Rachel Warren5Richard F. Pywell6UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology Wallingford UKUK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology Wallingford UKTyndall Centre for Climate Change Research University of East Anglia Norwich UKUK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology Wallingford UKTyndall Centre for Climate Change Research University of East Anglia Norwich UKTyndall Centre for Climate Change Research University of East Anglia Norwich UKUK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology Wallingford UKABSTRACT Most national assessments of climate change‐related risks to agriculture focus on the productivity of existing crops. However, one adaptation option is to switch to alternative crops better suited to changing local climates. Spatially explicit projections of relative climatic suitability across a wide range of crops can identify which ones might be viable alternatives. Parametrising process‐based models for multiple crops is complex, so there is value in using simpler approaches to ‘horizon scan’ to identify high‐level issues and target further research. We present a horizon scan approach based on EcoCrop data, producing mapped changes in suitability under +2°C and +4°C warming scenarios (above pre‐industrial), for over 160 crops across the United Kingdom. For the United Kingdom, climate change is likely to bring opportunities to diversify cropping systems. Many current and potential new crops show widespread increases in suitability under a +2°C warming scenario. However, under a +4°C scenario, several current crops (e.g. onions, strawberries, oats, wheat) begin to show declines in suitability in the region of the United Kingdom where most arable crops are currently grown. Whilst some new crops with increasing suitability may offer viable alternatives (e.g. soy, chickpea, grapes), the greatest average increases in suitability across crops occur outside the UK's current areas of greatest agricultural production. Realising these opportunities would thus be likely to require substantial changes to current farming systems and supply chains. By highlighting these opportunities and challenges, our approach provides potentially valuable information to farmers and national assessments.https://doi.org/10.1002/cli2.70007adaptationagriculturecropsEcoCropspatialUK |
| spellingShingle | John W. Redhead Matt Brown Jeff Price Emma Robinson Robert J. Nicholls Rachel Warren Richard F. Pywell National Horizon Scanning for Future Crops Under a Changing UK Climate Climate Resilience and Sustainability adaptation agriculture crops EcoCrop spatial UK |
| title | National Horizon Scanning for Future Crops Under a Changing UK Climate |
| title_full | National Horizon Scanning for Future Crops Under a Changing UK Climate |
| title_fullStr | National Horizon Scanning for Future Crops Under a Changing UK Climate |
| title_full_unstemmed | National Horizon Scanning for Future Crops Under a Changing UK Climate |
| title_short | National Horizon Scanning for Future Crops Under a Changing UK Climate |
| title_sort | national horizon scanning for future crops under a changing uk climate |
| topic | adaptation agriculture crops EcoCrop spatial UK |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1002/cli2.70007 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT johnwredhead nationalhorizonscanningforfuturecropsunderachangingukclimate AT mattbrown nationalhorizonscanningforfuturecropsunderachangingukclimate AT jeffprice nationalhorizonscanningforfuturecropsunderachangingukclimate AT emmarobinson nationalhorizonscanningforfuturecropsunderachangingukclimate AT robertjnicholls nationalhorizonscanningforfuturecropsunderachangingukclimate AT rachelwarren nationalhorizonscanningforfuturecropsunderachangingukclimate AT richardfpywell nationalhorizonscanningforfuturecropsunderachangingukclimate |