A study of dominant factors in the coupled coordination of population–ecology–energy–digital economy in China based on random forest algorithm

Abstract This study aims to examine the spatiotemporal patterns and dominant influencing factors of the coupling coordinated development (CCD) among population, ecology, energy, and digital economy (PEED) systems in China, contributing to the broader goal of sustainable regional development. Using p...

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Main Authors: Qikang Zhong, Jiawei Zhu, Zhe Li
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Nature Portfolio 2025-05-01
Series:Scientific Reports
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-02551-5
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author Qikang Zhong
Jiawei Zhu
Zhe Li
author_facet Qikang Zhong
Jiawei Zhu
Zhe Li
author_sort Qikang Zhong
collection DOAJ
description Abstract This study aims to examine the spatiotemporal patterns and dominant influencing factors of the coupling coordinated development (CCD) among population, ecology, energy, and digital economy (PEED) systems in China, contributing to the broader goal of sustainable regional development. Using panel data from 31 Chinese provinces over the period 2011–2020, we construct a PEED coordination index and analyze its evolution through coupling coordination models, spatial autocorrelation (Moran’s I), the Geodetector model, and a Random Forest algorithm with SHAP analysis. Results show a steady improvement in the overall CCD across provinces, although significant regional disparities persist—eastern provinces such as Guangdong and Beijing lead in coordination, while western and northeastern regions lag behind. Among the four subsystems, the ecological subsystem shows the greatest spatial variation, while the digital economy subsystem is more homogeneous. The Nighttime Light Index, Urbanization Rate, and Green Coverage Rate are identified as the most important drivers, with the Nighttime Light Index consistently exhibiting the strongest influence on CCD. SHAP analysis reveals nonlinear effects of all drivers, highlighting the complexity of subsystem interactions. The findings provide policy-relevant insights for promoting balanced and sustainable development. Policymakers should focus on enhancing urban planning, ecological protection, renewable energy adoption, and digital infrastructure investment, especially in less-developed regions, to further strengthen PEED coordination and support the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
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issn 2045-2322
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spelling doaj-art-7fa19853b5dc47f4943fdf7f400b0a502025-08-20T03:48:18ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222025-05-0115112410.1038/s41598-025-02551-5A study of dominant factors in the coupled coordination of population–ecology–energy–digital economy in China based on random forest algorithmQikang Zhong0Jiawei Zhu1Zhe Li2School of Architecture and Art, Central South UniversitySchool of Architecture and Art, Central South UniversitySchool of Architecture and Art, Central South UniversityAbstract This study aims to examine the spatiotemporal patterns and dominant influencing factors of the coupling coordinated development (CCD) among population, ecology, energy, and digital economy (PEED) systems in China, contributing to the broader goal of sustainable regional development. Using panel data from 31 Chinese provinces over the period 2011–2020, we construct a PEED coordination index and analyze its evolution through coupling coordination models, spatial autocorrelation (Moran’s I), the Geodetector model, and a Random Forest algorithm with SHAP analysis. Results show a steady improvement in the overall CCD across provinces, although significant regional disparities persist—eastern provinces such as Guangdong and Beijing lead in coordination, while western and northeastern regions lag behind. Among the four subsystems, the ecological subsystem shows the greatest spatial variation, while the digital economy subsystem is more homogeneous. The Nighttime Light Index, Urbanization Rate, and Green Coverage Rate are identified as the most important drivers, with the Nighttime Light Index consistently exhibiting the strongest influence on CCD. SHAP analysis reveals nonlinear effects of all drivers, highlighting the complexity of subsystem interactions. The findings provide policy-relevant insights for promoting balanced and sustainable development. Policymakers should focus on enhancing urban planning, ecological protection, renewable energy adoption, and digital infrastructure investment, especially in less-developed regions, to further strengthen PEED coordination and support the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-02551-5Population–ecology–energy–digital economyCoupling coordination assessmentSpatiotemporal evolutionGeodetector modelChina
spellingShingle Qikang Zhong
Jiawei Zhu
Zhe Li
A study of dominant factors in the coupled coordination of population–ecology–energy–digital economy in China based on random forest algorithm
Scientific Reports
Population–ecology–energy–digital economy
Coupling coordination assessment
Spatiotemporal evolution
Geodetector model
China
title A study of dominant factors in the coupled coordination of population–ecology–energy–digital economy in China based on random forest algorithm
title_full A study of dominant factors in the coupled coordination of population–ecology–energy–digital economy in China based on random forest algorithm
title_fullStr A study of dominant factors in the coupled coordination of population–ecology–energy–digital economy in China based on random forest algorithm
title_full_unstemmed A study of dominant factors in the coupled coordination of population–ecology–energy–digital economy in China based on random forest algorithm
title_short A study of dominant factors in the coupled coordination of population–ecology–energy–digital economy in China based on random forest algorithm
title_sort study of dominant factors in the coupled coordination of population ecology energy digital economy in china based on random forest algorithm
topic Population–ecology–energy–digital economy
Coupling coordination assessment
Spatiotemporal evolution
Geodetector model
China
url https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-02551-5
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