Climate change modeling in the context of urban decarbonization strategy
The anthropogenic influence on the Earth’s climate is growing and the risks of the irreversible impacts on ecosystems also increase. This paper is focused on the long-term prediction of the climate change in Kyiv region and decarbonization strategy development. The bcc-csm1-1 and IPSL-CM5A AR 5 clim...
Saved in:
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Sumy State University
2018-06-01
|
| Series: | Журнал інженерних наук |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://jes.sumdu.edu.ua/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/JES_2018_01_H1-H6-1.pdf |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1849738103537795072 |
|---|---|
| author | Kofanova O. |
| author_facet | Kofanova O. |
| author_sort | Kofanova O. |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The anthropogenic influence on the Earth’s climate is growing and the risks of the irreversible impacts on ecosystems also increase. This paper is focused on the long-term prediction of the climate change in Kyiv region and decarbonization strategy development. The bcc-csm1-1 and IPSL-CM5A AR 5 climate models were used. It was determined that the average annual temperature in Kyiv region under the RCP 8.5 high-emission future scenario will increase noticeably (up to 23.8 °C according to the IPSL-CM5A model) while at the RCP 2.6 low-emission future scenario it won’t change significantly (maximum value of 11.5 °C according to the IPSL-CM5A model). So, the research recommendations were organized in order to develop decarbonization strategy for Ukraine that will help to reduce emission levels and reach the RCP 2.6 scenario. The practical and scientific value of the work is specified by the fact that obtained results take into account updated information about climate changes and can be used to increase the awareness of citizens about it. The results of the study confirm the existence and danger of the problem of climate change and show how GHG emissions can affect the ecological balance of the urbanized ecosystem. The risks of the certain natural disasters occurrence were also considered. It was found that amplification of the natural hazards is one of the main dangers of the RCP 8.5 scenario for the world, Ukraine and Kyiv region. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-7f76dc167be541629b28d9f7effe50e0 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2312-2498 2414-9381 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2018-06-01 |
| publisher | Sumy State University |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Журнал інженерних наук |
| spelling | doaj-art-7f76dc167be541629b28d9f7effe50e02025-08-20T03:06:43ZengSumy State UniversityЖурнал інженерних наук2312-24982414-93812018-06-0151H1H6https://doi.org/10.21272/jes.2018.5(1).h1Climate change modeling in the context of urban decarbonization strategyKofanova O.0National Technical University of Ukraine “Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute”, 37 Peremohy Av., 03056, Kyiv, UkraineThe anthropogenic influence on the Earth’s climate is growing and the risks of the irreversible impacts on ecosystems also increase. This paper is focused on the long-term prediction of the climate change in Kyiv region and decarbonization strategy development. The bcc-csm1-1 and IPSL-CM5A AR 5 climate models were used. It was determined that the average annual temperature in Kyiv region under the RCP 8.5 high-emission future scenario will increase noticeably (up to 23.8 °C according to the IPSL-CM5A model) while at the RCP 2.6 low-emission future scenario it won’t change significantly (maximum value of 11.5 °C according to the IPSL-CM5A model). So, the research recommendations were organized in order to develop decarbonization strategy for Ukraine that will help to reduce emission levels and reach the RCP 2.6 scenario. The practical and scientific value of the work is specified by the fact that obtained results take into account updated information about climate changes and can be used to increase the awareness of citizens about it. The results of the study confirm the existence and danger of the problem of climate change and show how GHG emissions can affect the ecological balance of the urbanized ecosystem. The risks of the certain natural disasters occurrence were also considered. It was found that amplification of the natural hazards is one of the main dangers of the RCP 8.5 scenario for the world, Ukraine and Kyiv region.http://jes.sumdu.edu.ua/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/JES_2018_01_H1-H6-1.pdfclimate modelingglobal warmingdecarbonizationclimate changenatural hazards |
| spellingShingle | Kofanova O. Climate change modeling in the context of urban decarbonization strategy Журнал інженерних наук climate modeling global warming decarbonization climate change natural hazards |
| title | Climate change modeling in the context of urban decarbonization strategy |
| title_full | Climate change modeling in the context of urban decarbonization strategy |
| title_fullStr | Climate change modeling in the context of urban decarbonization strategy |
| title_full_unstemmed | Climate change modeling in the context of urban decarbonization strategy |
| title_short | Climate change modeling in the context of urban decarbonization strategy |
| title_sort | climate change modeling in the context of urban decarbonization strategy |
| topic | climate modeling global warming decarbonization climate change natural hazards |
| url | http://jes.sumdu.edu.ua/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/JES_2018_01_H1-H6-1.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT kofanovao climatechangemodelinginthecontextofurbandecarbonizationstrategy |